Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: (Is Invest 93L)

[Stormcenter]

I honestly don't know what the NWS out New Orleans is referring to as a possible wave developing
into a tropical low in the GOM over the weekend. It can't be 99L.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
408 PM CDT THU SEP 5 2013


.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE MIDWEST AND A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD TEXAS
AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL FEATURE MAY DEVELOP INTO A FULL
FLEDGED TROPICAL LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE STRONG MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
SOUTH. AT MOST...INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO A WEAKER CAP ALOFT AND DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASED CONVECTION AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND SHIFT TOWARD THE PLAINS STATES...AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FURTHER INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

[ROCK]

the EURO has it on its run.....TW...

[gatorcane]

The tropical wave they are talking about is located in the Western Caribbean.. See image below:



The 12Z ECMWF brings some energy into Southern Texas from this wave 96 hours from 12Z today (orange area in image):



There is currently no model support for this feature developing into a tropical cyclone this weekend in the Gulf.

[Portastorm]

Stormcenter, there is a lot of chatter out there especially in private met circles that the Western GOM is the going to be a very active/moist area in the next two weeks.

[CrazyC83]

Stormcenter, there is a lot of chatter out there especially in private met circles that the Western GOM is the going to be a very active/moist area in the next two weeks.

Makes sense, as long as a trigger can be found - and it will be difficult to get tropical waves there as long as they keep drying out and shearing to death in the MDR...but if a cold front or trough can die out over the Gulf, then we might be in action...

[tolakram]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090606/gfs_vort850_uv200_atltropics.html

If you step through the vorticity loop from the 6Z GFS you can see multiple areas of vorticity in the western gulf.

[wxman57]

Stormcenter, there is a lot of chatter out there especially in private met circles that the Western GOM is the going to be a very active/moist area in the next two weeks.

Yes, I've been chattering. No model projections of development in the Gulf but lots of available moisture there over the coming weeks. Needs to be watched for close-in development. Not this weekend, though, I'm enjoying another one off...

[Alyono]

GFS consistently showing what looks to be a TS in the BOC next week

[Hurricaneman]

GFS consistently showing what looks to be a TS in the BOC next week

I must say that area needs to be watched again, but it would probably landfall between Veracruz and Tampico like they have all season

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[Florida1118]

GFS consistently showing what looks to be a TS in the BOC next week

I must say that area needs to be watched again, but it would probably landfall between Veracruz and Tampico like they have all season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[ROCK]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

safe to say that heat potential is not a problem.


I wouldnt be to sure a direct path into MX would be a given....

[ninel conde]

BOC place to be in seasons like these.

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think this would be a hurricane?

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[perk]

Does anyone think this would be a hurricane?

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Slow down we don't even have a system yet.

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think this would be a hurricane?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Slow down we don't even have a system yet.

I meant to ask if there was any model support that would bring this to hurricane strength. I always ask these things in advance, so I would at least have an understanding or an idea as to what we could be dealing with.

[perk]

understood.

[wxman57]

I think that the Gulf is definitely the place to watch in the next few weeks. There is a ton of moisture in the Gulf now, and we know from 3 developments already in the BoC that conditions are good for development. There's a wave axis that spawned Gabrielle heading west toward the western Caribbean now. That wave could be the spark that starts the next development in the SW Gulf and/or BoC. Question is, will the ridge still be over TX when it forms? If so, then it will head west into Mexico. If not, then it could turn north toward TX or LA. If it has more than a day over water then it would have a good chance of becoming a hurricane.

For now, I wouldn't look east of the Caribbean for threats. Those systems are heading out to sea. Look west!

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensemble members mostly in agreement with at least lowering pressures in the SW GOM/BOC area in 5 days.

[Tireman4]

For now, I wouldn't look east of the Caribbean for threats. Those systems are heading out to sea. Look west!

Is that anything like, "Go West, young man"...LOL. Little bit of history there. I could not resist. LOL.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just not sure the fronts are strong enough yet to displace the Texas ridge further west out into the sw us. Seems to me anything forming that far south into the boc will go west into mexico just like the others have.