Tropical Wave just off African Coast (Is Invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

There has been some small noise from the models towards this pouch in past runs. Let's see what happens as the peak of the season is almost here.

P13L
12N, 14E
700 hPa

ECMWF: Not a well-defined pouch until 108 hours as P13L leaves Africa. While there is a contribution from both the northern and southern track over west Africa, the northern one appears to contribute more, hence the track has relatively high latitude in the beginning.

GFS: Unlike ECMWF, GFS appears to have a stronger, more consistent circulation on the southern track. Although the circulation is tiny while over Africa, P13L grows and strengthens upon reaching the Atlantic.

UKMET: Similar to ECMWF with more contribution from the northern track.

NAVGEM: Also in the “northern camp”. Eventual distinct pouch depicted as early as 72 hours.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2014.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2014/P13L.html

[SFLcane]

ECM has been hinting so as Canadian BUT still plenty of dry sinking air in the central Atlantic that would have to change before anything significant developes the way I see it. The wave is also a tad to North for my liking.

[Sanibel]

The entire basin looks negative. It was even slightly cool here last night for an August night.

[Hurricaneman]

The models don't do much if anything with this except the Canadian which probably means this won't do much but its the wave behind it I have my eyes on a that one has model support from pretty much all models

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[ConvergenceZone]

Even though it doesn't look like much out there yet, I still think we have a good chance of seeing our "C" storm before the end of August, but for that to happen I think we will need to see a strong tropical wave by the end of next week...

[beoumont]

The entire basin looks negative. It was even slightly cool here last night for an August night.

Over here in Vero Beach, FL
the dew point reached 79.5 degrees at sunset; thought I was in the Amazon.

[Sanibel]

I see the wave he's talking about now. See if it stays convected.

[MGC]

Looks like the atmosphere is a bit more moist in the eastern Atlantic....mid Atlantic looks like a desert along with the Carb Sea, GOM has lots of shear. I don't see another TC forming in the next few days. Looks pretty hostile out there right now.....MGC

[TheStormExpert]

The fact that the Pacific is bombing out now should tell the whole story. No question that El Niño effects are already in full swing.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't know, it is a desert out there in the central MDR!

[WPBWeather]

:uarrow: The fact that the Pacific is bombing out now should tell the whole story. No question that El Niño effects are already in full swing.

I think that's a little premature. Nothing is bombing the Pacific at the moment.

[ConvergenceZone]

:uarrow: The fact that the Pacific is bombing out now should tell the whole story. No question that El Niño effects are already in full swing.

I think that's a little premature. Nothing is bombing the Pacific at the moment.

what he means is the level of intensity in the Pacific is through the roof right now...Already up to the "J" storm....Everytime I look there's 2 or 3 storms going in the Pacific....

[WPBWeather]

:uarrow: The fact that the Pacific is bombing out now should tell the whole story. No question that El Niño effects are already in full swing.

I think that's a little premature. Nothing is bombing the Pacific at the moment.

what he means is the level of intensity in the Pacific is through the roof right now...Already up to the "J" storm....Everytime I look there's 2 or 3 storms going in the Pacific....

Your are absolutely correct. Bombing is UP, not DOWN then. My bad.

[Javlin]

:uarrow: The fact that the Pacific is bombing out now should tell the whole story. No question that El Niño effects are already in full swing.

I think that's a little premature. Nothing is bombing the Pacific at the moment.

Oh I think it might.The ACE for the Pacific must be way out front to the Atlantic and in being so should foretell a relatively low ACE for the Atlantic.The balance of nature yen/yang,N/S ...

[Sanibel]

Loose wave emerging from Africa.

[cycloneye]

Finnally,this pouch is emerging from West Africa after a few days of slow movement to the west.No introduction yet as a Tropical Wave but I suspect that will occur later today.As always it will have to deal with the sal and very dry air at mid levels down the road.Here is the update from the pouch folks.

P13L
12N, 12W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Pouch forms at 12 hours and then tracks westward. By Day 4, the intensity has increased only a little, but it is steady to at least 120 hours.

GFS: Somewhat large pouch near the African coast moves westward with increasing OW for 72 hours to a value of 2.9 x10-9 s-2. Then the circulation becomes stretched zonally and weakens.

UKMET: Initial position is farther east than in other models. After that, P13L tracks smoothly to the WNW, hitting max intensity at 60 hours, but still easily tracked to 120 hours as a weakening pouch.

NAVGEM: Distinct pouch as early as 12 hours. Tracks westward. Slows on Day 5.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2014/P13L.html

[tropicwatch]

Just took a look at it and the convection is more than some of the others that have come off Africa so far. The vorticity appears pretty good but seems elongated.

[Sanibel]

It's starting to get the look.

[Hurricaneman]

It's starting to get the look.

The 0zGFS seems to be taking a liking to this one, this could be a lot like Bertha but with a ridge to the north might make it to the western Caribbean before recurving

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Is now a Tropical Wave as is has been introduced at 00z Surface Analysis.