Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)

[Hurricaneman]

the models have been starting to jump on this area so it may need to be watched the next week to 10 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Fego]

According to Montgomery Research Group it's pouch 17L.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I am watching this wave closely. This will probably become our next invest when it emerges off the Africa coast in the next couple of days.

We will have to wait to see how much Invest 94L ahead of this pouch will have eaten away of the SAL in the next few days. One thing of note is this particular next wave will come off the Africa coast a bit farther north, compared to Bertha and Invest 94L as both systems were riding along or just below 10 degrees latitude, minus or plus a degree or so.

[gatorcane]

Even though this is 192 hours out, I think this is pouch 017L that the 18Z GFS develops? Note development starts around 144 hours from now but I am showing the 192 hour graphic below as the GFS slowly moves it westward:

[HurricaneFan]

But if Pouch 017L is the Wave just behind 94L now,How can it be sooo far behind in 94L in 8 bays?(Assuming that is 94L weakening as it hit Haiti).
Are the steering currents from the High Pressure expected to slow down that soon and that fast?

[Hurricaneman]

it looks like the GFS could be up to its old tricks, it has this pouch becoming a tropical storm later this week into the weekend and threatening Bermuda as a near hurricane at the end of the run mainly because of the dry stable air I believe this will not be anywhere near as strong as the GFS depicts it and another thing the GFS does is stall it out south of the Cape Verde islands for a few days which looking at the pattern makes little to no sense

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[gatorcane]

This pouch looks quite vigorous (right-hand side of image shows the left side of this pouch). Saved image below:



You can see a bit of a spin already with this pouch using this link:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/africa_IR.html

[TheStormExpert]

Just wait till it leaves Africa, chances are it'll probably go... POOF!

[cycloneye]

This pouch has been introduced as a Tropical Wave on the 12z TAFB surface analysis.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I could see this being made 95L sometime tomorrow or the day after.

[TheStormExpert]

I could see this being made 95L sometime tomorrow or the day after.

Unless any model or models show this developing I would not waste an Invest tag on this IMO. Odds are very well in favor it will in end up like 94L is currently.

[Hurricaneman]

it seems that for many runs in a row the GFS stalls this and slowly moves it north then the ridge catches it and also looking at the ridging pattern the last few days of runs show this possibly becoming a threat to the US coastline somewhere down the line as the most recent 12z run shows possible landfall in Florida so this may have to be monitored next week to see what the trough\ridge positions are

Also is it me or does it seem to combine with the wave behind it and become one like the GFS says or am I going crazy

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

I could see this being made 95L sometime tomorrow or the day after.

Unless any model or models show this developing I would not waste an Invest tag on this IMO. Odds are very well in favor it will in end up like 94L is currently.

The GFS doesn't do anything with this until 120hrs so maybe a 10% for 5 days and no more than that IMO but nothing interesting before 5 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Hurricaneman,I posted that 12z GFS run at 16 days on the Global Models Discussion thread because it is not clear if what it shows just off Florida is this wave or the one behind now in Central Africa.

[gatorcane]

The GFS seems alone again on development as the GEM is still not showing development out of this so that is not a good sign since it develops EVERYTHING.

[cycloneye]

NHC doesn't see any immediate future to this wave.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5
days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS COME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND ITS AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 17N18W TO 9N18W.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WHICH ALONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 17W-24W.

[Hurricaneman]

This looks like if the models are right that this and the wave behind it combine and thats when I believe this will start developing

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricane Andrew]

This looks like if the models are right that this and the wave behind it combine and thats when I believe this will start developing

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Only model doing that is GFS. I just don't buy that a wave sits still for five days and waits for the next one to catch up. Makes no sense.

[Hurricaneman]

as of 72hrs on the 18zGFS it seems to have a better grasp on this not completely stalling out near the cape verde islands

after that it looks like the wave behind it takes over and absorbs this area so if thats the case pouch 017L has not too much of a future and I may have been wrong about it developing 017L but the wave behind it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products