Tropical Wave off Central America (Is Invest 92E)

[Kingarabian]

A massive potential threat to Mexico and to the south western states of the CONUS is forecast by numerous models including the GFS.

I know it's not normal to have a thread for an EPAC storm but I think this storm deserves it since the GFS calls for it to be a strong major hurricane and it is likely to have some affects on SoCal and Arizona.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

From the EPAC Season thread:





Mods lock if needed.

[CrazyC83]

Assuming 11E becomes Lowell, this looks to be Marie and potentially the storm of the year in the Western Hemisphere?

[cycloneye]

You can see already plenty of convection south of Panama and Costa Rica.

[gatorcane]

This one looks like it is going to be a whopper! The ECMWF and GFS are extremely bullish.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS develops this in about 60-96 hours.

[Ntxw]

If you follow this animation of the GFS you will see that the environment setting up for this potential system is very ripe and very conducive. 2 even 3 Sigma or greater CCKW passage.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ven ... lobal.html

[Yellow Evan]

CFS on board with this too.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 240 hours, moving NW off the coast of Baja - quite strong:

[TheStormExpert]

Do any of the models have this affecting any of the SW U.S. States as a TC?

[Kingarabian]

Seems crazy that if it gets pulled NE that a hurricane may strike California. Unfortunately it seems realistic.

[Yellow Evan]

Do any of the models have this affecting any of the SW U.S. States as a TC?

As a weakening one, yes. It has it passing a little E of the Central Coast as a TD.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF predicts an incredible outflow pattern with equatorward channel enhanced by Antarctic westerlies at development stage of the storm

[Kingarabian]

Do any of the models have this affecting any of the SW U.S. States as a TC?

As a weakening one, yes. It has it passing a little E of the Central Coast as a TD.

Does something pull it over to the NE? Or just regular flow because it's weak?

[Yellow Evan]

Do any of the models have this affecting any of the SW U.S. States as a TC?

As a weakening one, yes. It has it passing a little E of the Central Coast as a TD.

Does something pull it over to the NE? Or just regular flow because it's weak?

Sorry, I meant W.

[cycloneye]

If I see the timing right,this wave at the southern extent is what was Invest 94L.

[Yellow Evan]

If I see the timing right,this wave at the southern extent is what was Invest 94L.

It appears to be ex-94L. I tracked it as such.

[Alyono]

not sure this will be intense enough to survive the full distance to California. Models are showing cat 3 or cat 4 at peak. We probably would need a cat 5 at peak UNLESS this were to end up going up the Gulf of California and then into Arizona

[CaliforniaResident]

not sure this will be intense enough to survive the full distance to California. Models are showing cat 3 or cat 4 at peak. We probably would need a cat 5 at peak UNLESS this were to end up going up the Gulf of California and then into Arizona

As a TS or an actual hurricane?

it's questionable whether or not a hurricane could physically landfall in the L.A. area but a TS certainly could make it as far north as L.A. (it did in 1939). A weak TS might be more of a blessing than a curse- it would surely cause some damage caused by fallen trees, mudslides and some flash flooding but it would put a very early end to the fire season and make a major dent in the drought.

[Alyono]

even to survive as a TS, this will have to become incredibly powerful. We wont have a trough moving the system at 30 mph or faster, which would allow a weaker storm

[Yellow Evan]

I don't srsly think this will make it to California either.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.