Tropical Wave SE of CV Islands (Is Invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Is interesting to see the ECMWF jump on this wave from the start. Will it continue to show it in further runs and GFS joining?

[Hurricaneman]

While the OP GFS is showing almost nothing with this area its ensembles are showing an area of low pressure like the Euro so its something to keep an eye on

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF continues with it.

[jlauderdal]

12z ECMWF continues with it.

http://oi62.tinypic.com/11ux0rm.jpg

well thats odd, the euro is on it before the gfs makes a major.,..lets see what the gfs does in the next few days

[Siker]

Looking at the 12z vs. the 00z, did the Euro switch waves from the front one to the back one?

[floridasun78]

12z ECMWF continues with it.

that area front maybe hurr is 93l?

[cycloneye]

floridasun78,what Euro has around 50w is not 93L but wave behind. Euro now develops another one behind as 12z run shows.

[Hammy]

floridasun78,what Euro has around 50w is not 93L but wave behind. Euro now develops another one behind as 12z run shows.

Looks like it's going into the similar indecisive mode that it went into between 90L/91L, though given the Euro showed development with 91L/Edouard at the ten day mark, then dropped it, only to show development again as the 48 hour mark approaches, it wouldn't surprise me to see it drop this and then see it develop later on.

[cycloneye]

Modified the title of thread as 93L will be deactivated.

[Blown Away]

Is this modeled storm 93L?

[cycloneye]

Is this modeled storm 93L?

Nope.

[WPBWeather]

floridasun78,what Euro has around 50w is not 93L but wave behind. Euro now develops another one behind as 12z run shows.

Looks like it's going into the similar indecisive mode that it went into between 90L/91L, though given the Euro showed development with 91L/Edouard at the ten day mark, then dropped it, only to show development again as the 48 hour mark approaches, it wouldn't surprise me to see it drop this and then see it develop later on.

You have an good point Hammy. Some model output is still running on 93L in this area, so who knows. The TCFC still shows forecasted storm potential in the central Atlantic area through late September. (Link available on request).

[Blown Away]

Doubt CONUS has to be concerned, possibly the NE Caribbean. It's only half way across the pond on 9/23...

[Hurricaneman]

There seems to be an area on the southern part of the wave that spawned 93L, does anyone think that area might have a chance as it heads futher west

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[LarryWx]

12z ECMWF continues with it.

Luis,
The 0Z Sunday Euro has it. So, three Euro runs in a row fwiw. Regardless, even if this were to represent reality, it would be a very hard challenge imo (based on history) to even make it to the Caribbean, much less the CONUS, this late in the season. We'll see.

[colbroe]

The area at 45 w looks very interesting has some spin ,low latitude ,any thoughts.

[weatherfanatic]

By looking at Euro it is interesting its on board first. But it looks to do similar to Eduord and go north quickly. Or am I wrong? 12z appears to be that way.

[cycloneye]

Maybe?

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday, and produce an area of low pressure over the far
eastern Atlantic. Conditions appear conducive for some development
of this system by late this week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[CFLHurricane]

Maybe?

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday, and produce an area of low pressure over the far
eastern Atlantic. Conditions appear conducive for some development
of this system by late this week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Not holding my breath...

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday and produce an area of low pressure over the far eastern
Atlantic. Conditions appear conducive for some development of this
system by late this week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.