Area NE of the Leeward Islands (Is Invest 99L)

[Hurricaneman]

This may need to be watched along the northern Windward Islands as its approaching and could be a threat to the east coast of the US

model runs

GFS: Approaches North Carolina 192hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_32.png

Euro: Near Bar Harbor, ME 240hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_11.png

GEM: Near SE Florida 240hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_40.png

NAVGEM: North of the lesser Antilles at 144hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_24.png

and its looking like a pre tropical cyclone at the moment on satellite

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[Alyono]

Canadian model near Florida is CARIBBEAN, not this system. CMC takes this by Bermuda

[Riptide]

Sleeper TC, 850mb vorticity is increasing and consolidating.

NAM progression
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[TheStormExpert]

Funny how the 500mb pattern all of the sudden as we hit October wants to act like that of August/September.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been activated for Guadeloupe as twave number 45 should begin to spread on Guadeloupe tommorow till Thursday. Moist and and unstable atmosphere could bring tstorms and strong showers in the area.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf (french version).

[floridasun78]

this area looking better this afternoon let see nhc say some thing at 8pm

[floridasun78]

my weatherman have this area under circle but nhc dont yet he gave it 10% of td coming from that area

[weatherfanatic]

I am much more interested in this storm one, it looks better than the system by panama, two it has better conditions and 3 models show it (or at least two I believe) and a threat from carolinas north IMO is possible. Wondering about the 8pm too with NHC.

[floridasun78]

nhc say zero about that area

[Hammy]

To the pro-mets here, how realistic is the GFS solution showing this becoming a low to moderate tropical storm in 4-5 days?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles northeast of the Leeward Islands are associated with a
surface trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally favorable, and some development of this
system is possible through the weekend while it moves generally
northwestward toward the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, we may get Fay after all out there before we write the post script on this extremely quiet 2014 season. This disturbance seems to be headed, for this season that is, in that rare, marginally conducive favorable spot in the Atlantic Basin, which is well off the SE Coast and near Bermuda where shear is relatively low-moderate. If this system develops, other than a possible threat to Bermuda, it will likely remain a fish out to sea.

[ninel conde]

GFS seems to have dropped it.

[Riptide]

How do you figure? 12z Euro is bullish somewhat.

[Hammy]

GFS seems to have dropped it.

Euro was developing this at the 240 hour mark, then (as seems to be the case most of the time) dropped it in the medium range only to show back up again in the shorter term. GFS has been poor across the board this year, overdeveloping systems that don't form (or forming phantom storms) or under-intensifying the ones that actually do. Probably the worst model right now to use as any indication of whether something will or will not form.

[wxman57]

Both the GFS & Euro develop a weak low (1008mb) then merge it with a cold front near Bermuda on Sunday afternoon. I think that such development is likely, as I can already see an LLC on visible loops. However, whether it becomes organized enough to classify as a depression is another matter.

[weatherfanatic]

It also depends on if it gets picked up or not it could become a coastal non tropical system, maybe thats what the GFS was showing for weeks but had it in the totally wrong starting place. The conditions for a east coast system next week are favored. And farmers almanac says a threat around 15th. We will see, Euro develops it to 1006mb for 12z. FWIW for the Euro thats pretty bullish and its usually the modelthat shows weaker than actually is.

[Nimbus]

Glad to hear it is forecast to get picked up.
Still down here in talking tropics no invest?

[abajan]

Yeah, we may get Fay after all out there before we write the post script on this extremely quiet 2014 season ...

So far we've had five tropical storms, four of which became hurricanes, one of which became a major hurricane. I wouldn't exactly call that an extremely quiet season!

[Gustywind]

Yeah, we may get Fay after all out there before we write the post script on this extremely quiet 2014 season ...

So far we've had five tropical storms, four of which became hurricanes, one of which became a major hurricane. I wouldn't exactly call that an extremely quiet season!

And... Even if this area is not directly impacting Guadeloupe... very moist and unstable atmosphere is bringing very strong showers and tstorms in the butterfly island! Nothing good here, very sad news as 5 guys have been seriously injured by a an awesome tstorms at Vieux-Habitants. One is dead and 2 of them suffered from cardiac arrest! Again my carib friends be aware and very vigilant Mother Nature is always surprising!

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspxHere is the sad story:

Lightning kills a man of Vieux-Habitants, another seriously injured

Lightning killed this Wednesday afternoon, not far from the village of Vieux-habitants. Five people had sought refuge under a carbet in the Assofwi property section Gerry: four workers of the association and a Carpenter working on the construction of a building nearby. The lightning fell ready of their shelter and spread up to them due to the large volume of water that stagnated around. The head of operation of Assofwi, a 35-year-old man, was killed instantly. Another was in cardio-respiratory arrest at the arrival of the rescue, but could be revived after 25 minutes of effort. He was evacuated in serious condition to the CHU of Pointe-à-Pitre. The other three were taken to the CHBT.
More details tomorrow in our edition