Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean (Is INVEST 92L)

[Blown Away]

Thought it was time to create a discussion post...

TAFB has a stationary surface low, just offshore Honduras/Belize, in 72 hours... Very fine line between being over land limiting any development or being over warm Caribbean waters... Seems to be a competing low in EPAC... Systems this time of year always complicated...

[Weatherwatcher98]

Very complicated situation, all depending on when and where something forms, and if any fronts come down. Usually something Florida needs to keep an eye this time of year.

[gatorcane]

There is an area of low-level vorticity along the coast of Honduras but it seems to be moving W or WNW and could be inland into the Yucatan before anything can get going - not to mention the shear is high right now.

On the other hand, shear is quite low in the SW Caribbean but that area seems destined for the EPAC based on modeling.

[LarryWx]

Good decision to create a separate thread for this. As I said, I think the NHC should have mentioned this in the 2 PM TWO with a 10% chance for development into a TC within 5 days. So, I still think it is a low chance but certainly not a longshot. One thing that makes this tricky is that it will be hanging close to or right in the climo favored WC for about the next 5 days thus increasing uncertainty.

[LarryWx]

There is an area of low-level vorticity along the coast of Honduras but it seems to be moving W or WNW and could be inland into the Yucatan before anything can get going - not to mention the shear is high right now.

On the other hand, shear is quite low in the SW Caribbean but that area seems destined for the EPAC based on modeling.

Gator,
I don't think that the GFS is bringing all of the current SW Caribbean stuff bodily into the EPAC. I think that at least a good portion of it splits off and moves NW into or just below the Gulf of Honduras. I'm getting that impression about all 12Z models fwiw. I think that when the model consensus was forming a NW Caribbean TC, they were bringing in all of it there from this SW Caribbean area. Now it is apparently split up some and also interacting with land more, but I think a good bit still goes up NW.
During the time that that portion moves there over the next few days, both the 12Z GFS and the 12Z Euro have under 10 knot shear going along with it as that portion moves very slowly NW.
Very complex situation!

[Weatherwatcher98]

There is an area of low-level vorticity along the coast of Honduras but it seems to be moving W or WNW and could be inland into the Yucatan before anything can get going - not to mention the shear is high right now.

On the other hand, shear is quite low in the SW Caribbean but that area seems destined for the EPAC based on modeling.

Gator,
I don't think that the GFS is bringing all of the current SW Caribbean stuff bodily into the EPAC. I think that at least a good portion of it splits off and moves NW into or just below the Gulf of Honduras. I'm getting that impression about all 12Z models fwiw. I think that when the model consensus was forming a NW Caribbean TC, they were bringing in all of it there from this SW Caribbean area. Now it is apparently split up some and also interacting with land, but I think a good bit still goes up NW.
During the time that that portion moves there over the next few days, both the 12Z GFS and the 12Z Euro have under 10 knot shear going along with it as that portion moves very slowly NW.
Very complex situation!

I think the forecast Kelvin Wave(s) may be a big player in this situation.

[Hammy]

I don't think NHC is going to mention anything for this, especially considering the models are not only not consistent but are not actually showing any development until day 6-7.

[gatorcane]

The SW Caribbean looks more interesting to me since it actually has an upper-high over that area and there is a low-level vorticity that has developed as well. You can see the clouds fanning out in the SW Caribbean, not so in the NW Caribbean as there is just too much shear:

[LarryWx]

The SW Caribbean looks more interesting to me since it actually has an upper-high over that area and there is a low-level vorticity that has developed as well. You can see the clouds fanning out in the SW Caribbean, not so in the NW Caribbean as there is just too much shear

Gator,
I agree about the SW Caribbean being the current area to watch. It is too early to be looking at the NW Caribbean. Unless I'm misunderstanding the thread starter, the current SW Caribbean area is being focused on as a potential mover in a few days into the Gulf of Honduras as opposed to watching what's currently in the NW Caribbean.
Yes, the NW Carribean has too much shear now. However, the 12Z GFS and Euro both decrease most of the Gulf of Honduras' shear down to less than 10 knots pretty soon and to keep it down low for days. So, IF there were to be an intact sfc low with decent convection to move there and mainly remain out over water, it could imo develop there within a few days. I know the very respected Hammy and some others don't agree (I'm not actually predicting development there but rather am saying don't bet the farm against it), but that makes for good and interesting discussions.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I don't think NHC is going to mention anything for this, especially considering the models are not only not consistent but are not actually showing any development until day 6-7.

Guess they learned from Invest 94L.

[Weatherwatcher98]

The SW Caribbean looks more interesting to me since it actually has an upper-high over that area and there is a low-level vorticity that has developed as well. You can see the clouds fanning out in the SW Caribbean, not so in the NW Caribbean as there is just too much shear

Gator,
I agree about the SW Caribbean being the current area to watch. It is too early to be looking at the NW Caribbean. Unless I'm misunderstanding the thread starter, the current SW Caribbean area is being focused on as a potential mover in a few days into the Gulf of Honduras as opposed to watching what's currently in the NW Caribbean.
Yes, the NW Carribean has too much shear now. However, the 12Z GFS and Euro both decrease most of the Gulf of Honduras' shear down to less than 10 knots pretty soon and to keep it down low for days. So, IF there were to be an intact sfc with decent convection to move there and mainly remain out over water, it could imo develop there within a few days. I know the very respected Hammy and some others don't agree (I'm not actually predicting development there but rather am saying don't bet the farm against it), but that's makes for good and interesting discussions.

I agree Larry. 94L was a train wreck. I don't blame them. Most ALL Models developed it.

[gatorcane]

Well a lot of GFS Ensembles have Southern Florida in the bullseye again but in the long-range. The GFS (Giving Florida Storms) doesn't want to let Florida of the hook!

[LarryWx]

I don't think NHC is going to mention anything for this, especially considering the models are not only not consistent but are not actually showing any development until day 6-7.

Guess they learned from Invest 94L.

WxWatcher,
Why not have it yellowed at 10% for the within 5 day fcast? Do they really think the chances are near zero with some LL vorticity and convection in the SW Caribbean as well as the other considerations mentioned? I'd say if they think it is at least a 5% chance to form by Mon., they should go ahead and yellow it at 10%. Whats the big deal? That would still be saying 90% chance of no dev.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I don't think NHC is going to mention anything for this, especially considering the models are not only not consistent but are not actually showing any development until day 6-7.

Guess they learned from Invest 94L.

WxWatcher,
Why not have it yellowed at 10% for the within 5 day fcast? Do they really think the chances are near zero with some LL vorticity and convection in the SW Caribbean as well as the other considerations mentioned? I'd say if they think it is at least a 5% chance to form by Mon., they should go ahead and yellow it at 10%. Whats the big deal? That would still be saying 90% chance of no dev.

Oh I agree 100% I am just saying that is why they won't.

[blp]

And guess what the GFS-PARA ensembles are onboard for the first time with a majority of the ensembles on the Atlantic side



And there is a good reason why the models keep trying to develop something. Look at the MJO on the GFS. And the Euro is not far behind.



We all kept saying that if not for the Ridge something would end up in the WC/Gulf as soon as the Ridge weakens and it might just happen.

[HURRICANELONNY]

One of these times the GFS is going to be close to right past 120hrs.

[Hammy]

I would personally put the five day chances at absolute zero. No need to highlight anything for development until it's closer in range and has more model agreement with more consistency.

[TheStormExpert]

Question, why does the title say 'Possible NW Caribbean Development' when the GFS, Euro, and UKMet develop something in the Bay of Campeche?

[floridasun78]

let see if nhc say thing at 8pm

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS sends the BOC system into Florida from the west and it looks to be transitioning into an extra tropical system as it merges with a frontal system