UK Met Office 2007 Hurricane Season Forecast

[wxman57]

The UK Met office has issued a forecast for the rest of the 2007 hurricane season. You can check it out here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... antic.html

Basically, they see a cooling trend in Atlantic SSTs and are predicting a 70% chance of between 7 and 13 additional named storms from July-November

[windstorm99]

Interesting stuff as CPC is also calling for a cooling of sst's across the atlantic basin in the coming months.Adrian

[Derek Ortt]

I'd like there to be only 1 more named storm all year and it stays in the open Atlantic

Cannot get everything though. Another quiet season would be good for the recovery efforts from the 2004 and 2005 seasons

[Bluefrog]

Amen to that Ortt. We are still years/decades from normal here on the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

[dwg71]

I think we will be in for an "average" season, whatever that is. 10-15 seems to be a good number. What I pray for is a lack of "devastation". Every day that we can mark off the calendar without tropical trouble is a good day.

[jasons2k]

I'll be surprised if the final tally is that low.

[cycloneye]

Interesting outlook by them,which if it verifies,would throw to the window in a relativly big way,what the experts(The Colorado Team,NOAA and TSR haved being saying in their outlooks) One of the factors that they were counting on was the birth of La Nina during the summer and fall months,a factor that we know now will not verifie according to what CPC said in it's monday update and to some extent what BoM (The Aussies) are saying too.The only thing to do is to wait and see how all evolves as the meat of the season approaches in 6 weeks and after the season is over,which of the expert private firms,goverment and Universitys were correct.

[wxman57]

Interesting outlook by them,which if it verifies,would throw to the window in a relativly big way,what the experts(The Colorado Team,NOAA and TSR haved being saying in their outlooks) One of the factors that they were counting on was the birth of La Nina during the summer and fall months,a factor that we know now will not verifie according to what CPC said in it's monday update and to some extent what BoM (The Aussies) are saying too.The only thing to do is to wait and see how all evolves as the meat of the season approaches in 6 weeks and after the season is over,which of the expert private firms,goverment and Universitys were correct.

I thought that Phil & Dr. Gray would be lowering their predicted number of named storms with the last update, but they didn't. Their analog and statistical schemes forecast between 13-16 named storms. Last year they were around 10-11 named storms and did very well. Clearly, there will be no La Nina until August or September at the earliest. The model they used for the last prediction forecast that we'd already be in a La Nina by late June. So it may be more likely than not that the season total will be 16 or less named storms.

Regardless, even if the prediction was for another 2-3 named storms, it just takes one bad hit to make for a very bad season. Many really destructive hurricanes have struck the U.S. in seasons with under 10 named storms. Don't let your guard up, particularly if you're in the SE U.S. and Carolinas.

[flwxwatcher]

Regardless, even if the prediction was for another 2-3 named storms, it just takes one bad hit to make for a very bad season. Many really destructive hurricanes have struck the U.S. in seasons with under 10 named storms. Don't let your guard up, particularly if you're in the SE U.S. and Carolinas.

WXman57.. You bring up a great point. I have read some forecasts that imply the Gulf Coast to the SE U.S. are at a higher risk this year.. Looking back at Florida Hurricane hits from the 40's and 50's that people talk about being active years really were not overly active numbers wise but had multiple storm strikes and or Destructive storms hit.. The total number for this year isn't what worries me..

[NDG]

2005 was a neutral ENSO, so this year could still be busy, UK MET is calling for the cooling of the Atlantic, that could be as a bad forecast as the forecast of cooling of the Equatorial Pacific.

[miamicanes177]

I thought that Phil & Dr. Gray would be lowering their predicted number of named storms with the last update, but they didn't. Their analog and statistical schemes forecast between 13-16 named storms. Last year they were around 10-11 named storms and did very well. Clearly, there will be no La Nina until August or September at the earliest. The model they used for the last prediction forecast that we'd already be in a La Nina by late June. So it may be more likely than not that the season total will be 16 or less named storms.

Regardless, even if the prediction was for another 2-3 named storms, it just takes one bad hit to make for a very bad season. Many really destructive hurricanes have struck the U.S. in seasons with under 10 named storms. Don't let your guard up, particularly if you're in the SE U.S. and Carolinas.

Yes, is just takes one. 1992 is considered by most to be one of the worst hurricanes seasons in United States history. It had 7 named storms. 2006 had 10 named storms and it wasn't even in the same league as 1992. Named storms mean nothing. You can have 1 named storm and it could go down as the worst season in US history. Think what a major hurricane in NYC would do.

SST's in the caribbean and GOM in 2007 are some of the warmest in recorded history. This UK met service is banking on significant cooling in the Atlantic from now until the end of hurricane season. 2006 saw the 2nd warmest Atlantic ocean on record. We had 10 named storms. You need more than high SST's for hurricane formation. SST's are, and will continue to be, significantly warmer than the long term average in 2007. Wind shear has been, and is forecast to continue to be, below normal in the Atlantic in 2007. I'll bookmark this page and report back on their forecast as the season progresses.

[wobblehead]

He said 2006 will be an active year, she said no it won't. He said 2007 will be an active year, she said no it won't. He said the northeast better lookout, she said its the gulf coast that better look out. He said La Nina will form, she said no it won't. He said the Atlantic Ocean will be hotter than normal, she said no it won't.
There are and have been so many differing forecast and analysis publicized that John Q. Public might just lose trust. We all agree a "calm" 2007 season is what we want however a repeated misdiagnosis can be a negative for the general population.

[AnnularCane]

I don't think I remember this many forecasts for a single season. It seems like it used to just be Dr. Gray and maybe a couple of others giving forecasts, and now it seems like everybody and their brother is getting in on the act. Of course, maybe I just never heard about it before.

[wobblehead]

I don't think I remember this many forecasts for a single season. It seems like it used to just be Dr. Gray and maybe a couple of others giving forecasts, and now it seems like everybody and their brother is getting in on the act. Of course, maybe I just never heard about it before.

Dito for me. There are many variables considered when forecasting storm specifics however basic ingredients, such as SST, atmospheric pressures etc..go into forecasting a seasons activity level. I often wonder how vastly different opinions arise from the same base data.

[Rainband]

I'd like there to be only 1 more named storm all year and it stays in the open Atlantic

Cannot get everything though. Another quiet season would be good for the recovery efforts from the 2004 and 2005 seasons

You said a mouthful there derek. I agree.

[MGC]

I don't think the temperature of the Atlantic will be that much of an issue the coming months. Only thing that will keep the numbers low is shear. I just hope the troughs stays along the EC.....MGC

[Blown Away]

2005 was a neutral ENSO, so this year could still be busy, UK MET is calling for the cooling of the Atlantic, that could be as a bad forecast as the forecast of cooling of the Equatorial Pacific.

What effect does a cooling Atlantic normally have on the Bermuda High?

[boca]

If we have that trough off the east coast like we do now we will be safe this year from storms coming in from the east.We haven't had the bermuda high so far this season to contend with so maybe our season might end up like 2006 woth one or two more storms than that, which puts us at average not above.

[wxman57]

2005 was a neutral ENSO, so this year could still be busy, UK MET is calling for the cooling of the Atlantic, that could be as a bad forecast as the forecast of cooling of the Equatorial Pacific.

What effect does a cooling Atlantic normally have on the Bermuda High?

A weaker Bermuda high may allow a number of hurricanes to recurve by the eastern Caribbean Sea if the current pattern persists into August/September. HOWEVER, without an El Nino and the resulting wind shear and sinking air in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, there will be storms that slip underneath the east coast trof and develop in the central Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. Such development could spell trouble for the Gulf Coast. Just remember that the pattern is always changing out there. It will often come down to a matter of timing as to whether a developing storm is a "fish" or if someone gets slammed.

[Blown Away]

2005 was a neutral ENSO, so this year could still be busy, UK MET is calling for the cooling of the Atlantic, that could be as a bad forecast as the forecast of cooling of the Equatorial Pacific.

What effect does a cooling Atlantic normally have on the Bermuda High?

A weaker Bermuda high may allow a number of hurricanes to recurve by the eastern Caribbean Sea if the current pattern persists into August/September. HOWEVER, without an El Nino and the resulting wind shear and sinking air in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, there will be storms that slip underneath the east coast trof and develop in the central Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. Such development could spell trouble for the Gulf Coast. Just remember that the pattern is always changing out there. It will often come down to a matter of timing as to whether a developing storm is a "fish" or if someone gets slammed.

Leaving out the Bermuda High effect on hurricane tracks. In general does Atlantic SST's influence the strength of the Bermuda High? Normally, would cooler Atlantic SST's tend to weaken or strengthen the Bermuda High?