Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[Ivanhater]

Wxman57 brought up a possible hurricane in the Nw Caribbean next week..Here is the Euro model.

[Ivanhater]

Wxman57's Post

Both the European and the GFS are strongly indicating a TC in the NW Caribbean by early next week. I'm not sure what its origin is. Could be the wave axis that is now 97L sparking convection in the western Caribbean by then. Neither model shows anything moving into the region from the east. I believe the low originates from a combination of the weak/dissipating frontal boundary south of Florida and some energy from a tropical wave. Take a look at what the European shows for 7pm Monday:

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes....Just verified with a pro met on this...La eastward need to pay close attention...

[njweather]

Wow. The image above makes it seem as if the High pressure areas will force this directly towards NOLA.

Definitely something to keep an eye on.

The Gulf has been very interesting this season...

[KWT]

Interesting but I can't help but think its just another one of thosre phantom systems that the models sometimes spin up. Saying that the sort of track that the models forecast is classic October type tracks and its the time of year that we do realy need to watch this area. Worth watching in the next few days if anything actually shows any signs of development.

[Stormcenter]

When the GFS starts to show this then I will become a little concerned otherwise
I'm starting to put up my hurricane tracking maps.

[hurricanetrack]

Agreed on that! I am taking the "I'll believe it when the eye is visible" approach. Otherwise, I have been fooled too many times this season....it is getting a little old. But hey! Time will tell. We always can count on THAT.

[Big O]

I believe the EURO is on to something. With a ridge over the eastern/NE CONUS, this promotes lower of pressures to the southwest (i.e., the NW Carribean and eastern GOM). However, I think the EURO is too far west with this system. With a trough progged to swing through the Plains and into the East, I think a landfall (if the system develops) is more likely from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Tampa, Florida. This would put the would-be system over water with high oceanic heat content. If the upper level wind patterns are favorable, we could see quite a significant storm in the NE GOM early next week, IMHO.

[Big O]

lower = lowering

[jasons2k]

Just remember when referencing the screen shot that weather is dynamic. The weakness on THAT DAY is over LA/NOLA but will change as the system (if there is one) moves across the GOM.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm beginning to think that the mid level trough now passing through the FL staits is the culprit to this potential storm. If this strom develops in the SE Gulf I think it s a west coast FL problem say Cross City southward to the Keys, if it develops further back in the Yuc. Channel or NW Carib. it would be more of a Mobile, AL to Cross City, FL problem IMO.

[Sanibel]

The model must be taking 97L and it's convection and deepening it in the west Caribbean. If not it will have to form from phantom material in the next week. We have to admit the same models predicted 94L pretty accurately.

[Frank2]

With all due respect...

You all need to relax - chasing too many mirages can give a person high blood pressure...

[flwxwatcher]

With all due respect...

You all need to relax - chasing too many mirages can give a person high blood pressure...

Come on Frank have a beer and relax.. thats what this board is here for

[flwxwatcher]

The EURO, Nogaps and UKMET are trying to develope something around the Florida area late this week-end /early next week. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds the next 7 days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7092512!!/

[hurricanetrack]

They say October will be busy- I guess this is a good way to see that prediction come to pass. Although new ECMWF shows very little in the Gulf but Karen seems to be scooting along betweem 20-25n for a while:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

[SoonerMaximus]

When the GFS starts to show this then I will become a little concerned otherwise
I'm starting to put up my hurricane tracking maps.

I think this is the same system you're referring to. If so, you may have your reason...as of this morning, there is GFS agreement.

...From the 94L Models thread... wxman57 hasn't posted any updated models of this that I can find, and he's the one with GARP, so things may have changed.

To give you a good idea where "Lorenzo-to-be" might track, I've created a series of 5 maps in GARP. I plotted the mean 700m-400mb wind flow (barbs and streamlines) valid 7am Fri to 7am Tue. You can see that high pressure remains quite entrenched over Texas-Louisiana and the NW Gulf. This storm is going SW, not north.

Of great interest is what happens on Monday and Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a very strong tropical cyclone in the NW Caribbean. With high pressure building over the eastern U.S., it's a perfect setup for a hurricane in the NW Caribbean/Gulf early next week, and I don't mean Lorenzo.

7am Fri:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo4.gif

7am Sat:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo5.gif

7am Sun:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo6.gif

7am Mon:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo7.gif

7am Tue:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo8.gif

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think knowing alot of these models. The title should read " Some Models show a Hurricane in the Carribean". As we know. We've all been hit by a Cat 5 this year. It just never materialized. One thing is for sure. La Nina is here and the waves are looking alot better.

[flwxwatcher]

Last Nights EURO is still trying to spin up a system around Florida next week. It then brings it into the SE Gulf and has it moving slowly .

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7092600!!/

[Sanibel]

Has to be remnant wave of 97L.