Tropical Development in Area East of Bahamas?

[boca]

This might be our next area of concern east of the Bahamas.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS ALMOST A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE NOT AS
WET. ALSO...THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH MOVING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA OVER THE CARIB THIS WEEKEND. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS...DECIDED TO TREND POPS UP
JUST A BIT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE GFS VERIFYING.

Source is NWS Miami.

Mods I saw this thread,but not totally related if you want to delete this one.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98419

[Blown Away]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html
There sure is alot of convection out there. Still not sure if Ex Karen is part of the convection. Nobody seems to be talking about this area, some models hinting at development. Probably nothing more than a big wet mess moving towards SFL, the 30mph tropical breeze is refreshing.

[cpdaman]

apparently people are thinking this may very well develop and effect the keys (poss. s fl) and then a gulf threat

[cycloneye]

This will be the thread for the peeps to post in the comming days until invest 91L is tagged.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This will be the thread for the peeps to post in the comming days until invest 91L is tagged.

Luis we should merge this one and the "after 90L thread"..

[cycloneye]

From the Melbourne NWS

SAT-MON...ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER EC FL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND START OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN PWATS
EXPECTED. AREA WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH ELONGATING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS FL STRAITS/CUBA. SCATTERED
POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FINE TUNING OF POPS
AND WINDS LIKELY NEEDED AS SITUATION UNFOLDS WRT STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH/LOW AND LOCAL WX IMPACTS TO EC FL.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... MLB&max=10

[cycloneye]

12z EURO



The 12z EURO shows this feature moving WSW crossing Cuba,and then after moving slowly East of Yucatan,it moves towards the Gulf of Mexico.

[chadtm80]

Looks more interesting then 90L itself..

[Blown Away]

How is that convection E of the Bahamas not an invest?

[cycloneye]

The 18z NAM shows the Bahamas low,but also has something in the NW Caribbean in 84 hours.

[americanrebel]

Probably be an invest either tonight or tomorrow, and then a TD a day or two later.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Bahamas convection is looking intense with widespread
heavy convection and I expect this to become an invest
by tomorrow- anyway, with low shear over it conditions
will be very favorable for development, and this
could intensify prior to crossing south of Florida.
As for exact path, some of the globals GFS or NAM
or CMC in another post said SW into Cuba. But keep watching
in case.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If JB is right, 90L will be just a little appetizer for the main course.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 36 hours

It starts to show the low pressure East of the Bahamas.

[Vortex]

Has JB commented on soon to be 91L??

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 48 hours

[Ed Mahmoud]

Has JB commented on soon to be 91L??

Last night he cut a special video, he was so excited. In his workout sweats with arms cut off, so he could flex.



Today, he said 90L, although it might develop a relative warm core w/i upper low, has too much shear and dry air to get over 60 knots (or maybe he said 60 mph), but in the video, he was still very pumped. No specifics, but he showed (I think 6Z GFS) 200 mb maps for next week when this would be in the Gulf, nice anticyclonic flow with outflow jet developing.

Oh yeah, JB is psyched.


Quittin time...

[JonathanBelles]

Im more worried about this than 90L for the time being.

[Vortex]

This has the making of a serious storm for someone...Upper air environment appears very favorable. Let's hope it dives right into cuba...NOT a guarantee by any means

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 66 hours