Area North of Puerto Rico

[rainydaze]

This is labled #5 on the Graphical TWO

5. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

Do you think there will be an invest soon for this area?

[BigA]

I do. There is budding convection, and a clear spin in the clouds, and a somewhat less clear spin on radar. This may be at the mid levels, but it looks fairly impressive.

[chadtm80]

5. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

[cycloneye]

84 73 70 N8 29.89F


Observations at Luis Muñoz Marin Airport in San Juan.Winds are from the north and pressure is falling.That tells me that something is going on north of where I am.

[mightyerick]

I insist... It should absorb 92L and DISTURBED AREA 6... perhaps 91L too (in a long term)

A FISHY SUPERHURRICANE!!!!!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

SAN JUAN LMM PTSUNNY 82 73 74 VRB5 29.84F


Pressure has fallen 5 mbs in 2 hours.Interesting.

[mightyerick]

cycloneye... there are models running??? can i get them???

[cycloneye]

SAN JUAN LMM PTSUNNY 84 73 70 VRB3 29.82F HX 91



Pressure continues to fall in San Juan.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I might be wrong
but .03 = 1 mb
29.89
29.82
.07/.03 = 7/3 = 2.33 mb in 3 hours
which is pretty significant

[Vortex]

Very significant

[frederic79]

Other buoys in the general area are showing lowering pressures as well.

[gerrit]

I might be wrong
but .03 = 1 mb
29.89
29.82
.07/.03 = 7/3 = 2.33 mb in 3 hours
which is pretty significant

You're right.



[Want this handy conversion program? It's free! http://joshmadison.com/software/convert/]

[punkyg]

Well i zoomed in on this storm, but i have to ask yall. can yall make out any swirls in the convection?
i see one north of puerto rico.

[gerrit]

SAT images here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html

[cycloneye]

The afternoon discussion from the NWS in San Juan.


000
FXCA62 TJSJ 052009
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 PM AST FRI OCT 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...A VERY TRICKY WEATHER SCENARIO CONTINUED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WAS DELAYED BY SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WITH FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT THIS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THIS LOW AND ITS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW. SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO INVADE THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN
TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AS SITUATION UNFOLDING HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE
CHANGE...DEPENDING ON POSITIONING OF SURFACE CIRCULATION
FEATURES...WHICH MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE IDENTIFYING.
AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO QUICKLY
DEVELOPING BUT SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ONCE
NEAR A LOCAL AIRPORT...MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN NORMAL. IN THE
IMMEDIATE FUTURE EXPECT SHOWERS TO AFFECT TJSJ ROUGHLY
20-22Z...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY IMPROVING AND SHOULD
REMAIN IN PREVAILING VFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER ALL OTHER
AIRPORTS AFTER 22Z...BUT MAY NOT STAY AS SUCH FOR VERY LONG. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDING FOR MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLAND AIRPORTS AS WELL AS ST KITTS AND ST MAARTEN
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE WEST TOWARDS PUERTO RICO.
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP WELL INFORMED ON RAPIDLY CHANGING
SITUATIONS BY CHECKING AVIATION FORECAST PRODUCTS AS OFTEN AS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.




http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[punkyg]

Oh snap how did i miss the swirl to east of the one i have been talking about!

if you can't see it i'll tell you that there very close to each other.

[Blown Away]

Doesn't appear they are talking about the cyclonic spin NW of PR near 23N/68W.

[MiamiensisWx]

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY EVIDENT
FROM THE SAN JUAN RADAR...AND IS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA E THROUGH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY IS
PRIMARILY THE ELONGATED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND SW NORTH ATLC...THOUGH THE UPPER LOW N OF THE MONA PASSAGE
IS ALSO PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FUEL. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS ALSO
ANALYZED JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N65W AS DICTATED BY
THE SAN JUAN RADAR AND THE SURROUNDING SFC OBSERVATIONS. THERE
IS SOME DEBATE ON IF SOME OF THIS ENERGY COULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VERY MESSY AND COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES THE SW
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE OVERALL SFC PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS.
AT 1200 UTC A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM FAR SE FLORIDA TO JUST N
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH A MEAN 1010 MB LOW NEAR 23N74W AND
ANOTHER 1011 MB CENTER JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N65W. THE
LATTER APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER PRODUCER...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-70W. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM FOUND IN
CARIBBEAN SECTION. TROUGHING N OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
ADDITION TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OFF AND ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA W OF
77W. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BROAD TROUGHING NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM THE MID ATLC COAST WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS AND STEEP WIND WAVES/SWELL
OFFSHORE FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

2:05 p.m. EDT TWD

[Blown Away]

All the talk is about a low w/o a circulation and convection near 23N/74W and a low w/o circulation N of the Virgin Islands. I guess I'm clueless, the nice cyclonic rotation is in the middle NW of PR. The only area that has a better cyclonic spin is naked 90L making landfall on the Gulf coast.

Check out the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[msbee]

I don't know what is happening..whether anything is developing.....but I can tell you that this thing is dumping tons of rain on us since yesterday.
We just had an other heavy thunderstorm with a heavy downpour and about 2.5 inches of rain.
Roads are flooded everywhere.
It's mostly minor flooding thankfully. And there is no wind..absolutely no wind.. So I see this thing hanging around for awhile.