The wave near 50w this evening is expected to continue west for the next 5-7 days. The Nogaps and ECMWF track this feature through the carribean arriving in the western carribean in about 6-7 days. ECMWF even closes off a low while moving through the eastern carribean. More importantly, this feature should remain active and arrive on scene to a favorable environment where climatology rules..This could become "The October Storm" we've anticipated...
ECMWF +96
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7100812!!/
NOGAPS +96
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=096
GFS +90
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif
Western Caribbean Thread
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Western Caribbean Thread
0 likes
10/9 00Z GFS
+54 Wave nearing windwards...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif
+60 Over southern Windward islands...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif
+84 Near ABC islands....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif
+54 Wave nearing windwards...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif
+60 Over southern Windward islands...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif
+84 Near ABC islands....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif
0 likes
Re: Wave near 50W to become SIGNIFICANT player in 5-7 days??
Looks decent , but the last month (minus Humberto) has ingrained in me a deep cynicism against anything developing. Worth watching...may survive if it stays far enough south, but the caribbean looks downright hostile in several days. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr
0 likes
-
gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: Wave near 50W to become SIGNIFICANT player in 5-7 days??
well Vortex its possible but honestly I don't think we are going to see any Big October storms this year but I will keep a watch on it just in case. 
0 likes
Honestly, with all this shear going around, I'm eager for the winter storms, because they are largely unaffected, even fortified by shear. It will be nice to watch something that, for a change, wont get hacked to death by upper level winds.
Now that I have this out of my system, maybe we will have one decent October storm. At the start of the month I believed it. Now, I seriously doubt.
Now that I have this out of my system, maybe we will have one decent October storm. At the start of the month I believed it. Now, I seriously doubt.
0 likes
NOGAPS 00Z 8/9
H+60
Organized convection moving west of windwards over eastern carribean sea..
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=060
H+60
Organized convection moving west of windwards over eastern carribean sea..
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=060
0 likes
-
Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5594
- Age: 36
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 091017
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WEAK SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
AXNT20 KNHC 091017
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WEAK SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
0 likes
Re:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:I hope it is a big player. I want to
see some REAL action.
I want wild storm video.
This wave isn't even an invest....
Here's some wild storm video
0 likes
-
Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5594
- Age: 36
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: Re:
gerrit wrote:Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:I hope it is a big player. I want to
see some REAL action.
I want wild storm video.
This wave isn't even an invest....
Here's some wild storm video
Thanks
but I want to experience it personally in reallife while recording. But with my luck I'll never get to.
0 likes
Re: Wave near 50W to become SIGNIFICANT player in 5-7 days??
Tampa,
Move to coast of N. Carolina and you will see all the real action you want.
Move to coast of N. Carolina and you will see all the real action you want.
0 likes
Re: Wave near 50W to become SIGNIFICANT player in 5-7 days??
No vorticity yet.
I would say no, since all deep waves in this area have fizzled after Felix. Huge negativity has descended on the Atlantic as 94L shows. 94L has no reason not to form yet it isn't.
I would say no, since all deep waves in this area have fizzled after Felix. Huge negativity has descended on the Atlantic as 94L shows. 94L has no reason not to form yet it isn't.
0 likes
-
Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5594
- Age: 36
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: Wave near 50W to become SIGNIFICANT player in 5-7 days??
I'll keep an eye out on this area. Very unpredictable
tropics these days.
tropics these days.
0 likes
-
Stormcenter
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6617
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Western Caribbean Thread
Well at least the NWS out New Orleans, LA thinks so this afternoon.
LONG TERM...
ESSENTIALLY A DRY FORECAST WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES DUE TO DRY
AIR. LOWS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO MUSTER THE MID 80S. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
VORTICITY FEATURE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK HEADING OUR WAY. DO NOT HAVE A LARGE DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST GIVEN THE PROSPECTS OF GULF RETURN FLOW
BECOMING ESTABLISHED MONDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...
ESSENTIALLY A DRY FORECAST WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES DUE TO DRY
AIR. LOWS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO MUSTER THE MID 80S. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
VORTICITY FEATURE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK HEADING OUR WAY. DO NOT HAVE A LARGE DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST GIVEN THE PROSPECTS OF GULF RETURN FLOW
BECOMING ESTABLISHED MONDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
0 likes
-
Fego
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 767
- Age: 64
- Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2004 7:58 pm
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
- Contact:
Re: Wave near 50W to become SIGNIFICANT player in 5-7 days??
From the NWS in San Juan (4:40 p.m.)
..WHILE THE FOLLOWING WAVE ALONG
48/49W WITH ACCOMPANYING AEJ AND SAL ACROSS THE TOP SPREADING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. LOOK FOR THIS TANDEM OF MOISTURE
AND ENERGY TO PROPAGATE WNW AND THEN MORE NW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...DRAGGING THE
ITCZ INTO THE E CARIB TO ABOUT 15N ON THU. THIS WILL SPREAD
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AEJ ACROSS AND JUST NE OF THE LOCAL AREA
ADDING DYNAMICS FOR INTENSE CNVTN ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.
DRIER LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SAL IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR A MORE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN"...
..WHILE THE FOLLOWING WAVE ALONG
48/49W WITH ACCOMPANYING AEJ AND SAL ACROSS THE TOP SPREADING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. LOOK FOR THIS TANDEM OF MOISTURE
AND ENERGY TO PROPAGATE WNW AND THEN MORE NW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...DRAGGING THE
ITCZ INTO THE E CARIB TO ABOUT 15N ON THU. THIS WILL SPREAD
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AEJ ACROSS AND JUST NE OF THE LOCAL AREA
ADDING DYNAMICS FOR INTENSE CNVTN ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.
DRIER LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SAL IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR A MORE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN"...
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Latest from Meteo-France 6 PM
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Very interresting wave, with copious amount of convection this afternoon...
and i've just check the latest forecasts and... just for the info in the southern Windwards Islands Martiniqua has already put a yellow alert at 6 PM tonight for a risk of strong showers and thunderstorms for this moderate twave for the moment... given the latest forecasts of Meteo-France...and beginning to approach our area during the next few hours and tommorow...so a squally weather is expected during the24h/48h with gusty winds with electric activity...we will see what happens as usual cheesy: folks!
Looking at the shear analysis...shear has lessen a bit to 20kts in vicinity of the wave and much more lower near the Windwards Leewards at 10 kts so a little more favorable winds...compared to the previous days... maybe a little window to see something bringing some water on the islands hope nothing more...
Wind shear latest 5pm
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Very interresting wave, with copious amount of convection this afternoon...
and i've just check the latest forecasts and... just for the info in the southern Windwards Islands Martiniqua has already put a yellow alert at 6 PM tonight for a risk of strong showers and thunderstorms for this moderate twave for the moment... given the latest forecasts of Meteo-France...and beginning to approach our area during the next few hours and tommorow...so a squally weather is expected during the24h/48h with gusty winds with electric activity...we will see what happens as usual cheesy: folks!
Looking at the shear analysis...shear has lessen a bit to 20kts in vicinity of the wave and much more lower near the Windwards Leewards at 10 kts so a little more favorable winds...compared to the previous days... maybe a little window to see something bringing some water on the islands
hope nothing more... Wind shear latest 5pm
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, hurricanes1234, NotSparta and 55 guests