Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

[Siker]

If I remember correctly, didn't the models not really latch on to potential Cristobal until it was pretty close to the islands? It was like the GFS went from nothing one run to a gulf hurricane the next.

[TheStormExpert]

I believe the last of the Kelvin Waves currently moving through the Atlantic is to thank for the current blowup in convection with this wave. In another day or so once that Kelvin Wave leaves and the suppressed phase rolls in for a while the desert like conditions will return once again in full swing. Development chances at it's very best are probably between 0-10%.

[cycloneye]

Looking good for now but how it will be later is the question.

[SFLcane]

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looking at the east atlantic avn loop. I can't believe it's not an invest. Better looking then anything out there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html

[abajan]

Place your bets:

It will be mentioned in the 2PM TWO
It won't be mentioned in the 2PM TWO



(My thinking is it just looks too good not to get some sort of mention.)

EDIT: Changed to to too

[ouragans]

It will. 0%/10% at least

[dixiebreeze]

Totally agree Abajan. Very surprised it is not an invest by now.

[HURRICANELONNY]

[quote="abajan"]Place your bets:

It will be mentioned in the 2PM TWO
It won't be mentioned in the 2PM TWO



(My thinking is it just looks to good not to get some sort of mention.)

i say mention

[dixiebreeze]

How about "maybe." Looks like the Navy site and NHC site are sort of out of whack this morning.

[gatorcane]

Here is a good loop of the area:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

There is clear spin evident but it may be at the mid-levels. Convection is holding together but cloud tops warming slightly. The 12Z model guidance out so far GFS/GEM/NAVGEM are not developing anything out of this.

I think the NHC will not mention it again because there is zero model support still and will wait until this evening's outlook to see how the area is looking. Still, the area is something to watch IMHO given the time of year. Every once in a while you get something the models miss.

[perk]

I think this system will be tagged an invest soon.I also detect a slight rotation.

[Blown Away]

10/20... Feeling optimistic...

[TheStormExpert]

I'd say 10/10% as early as the 2pm TWO. After 2-days chances for development could drop with the suppressed phase of the MJO coming in, along with wind shear.

[CFLHurricane]

I'd say 10/10% as early as the 2pm TWO. After 2-days chances for development could drop with the suppressed phase of the MJO coming in, along with wind shear.

What they said.

[cycloneye]

No mention wins.They are not impressed.

[abajan]

No mention wins.They are not impressed.

Dang man!

[Hurricaneman]

The NHC is going to need model support or a closed low on ASCAT on this before they start assigning %s so until then there probably will be no mention no matter how good it looks

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

The only mention is at the TWD on the ITCZ section.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

[Sanibel]

This is Pouch 23. I think I might have called bust too early.