Did the The FV3 GFS become the model to watch? I read a bit but I don't understand this quote from Mr. Ventrice? Sorry didn't want to start a new thread on a basic question.
2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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lrak
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Did the The FV3 GFS become the model to watch? I read a bit but I don't understand this quote from Mr. Ventrice? Sorry didn't want to start a new thread on a basic question.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Wonderful, perhaps this one will resemble a 'Nor-Easter 
I'm gonna go WAY out there on a limb and predict if too get's upgraded as a named tropical (or sub) storm...... Like Andrea, it won't likely have it's name retired either
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CyclonicFury
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12z EPS support has increased for a weak BoC spin-up.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
StruThiO wrote:https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1134164878866829313
Any thoughts about the possibility of this moving northward along the TX coast and into Louisiana?
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Looks like the 12Z GFS wants to spin something up around June 13th, heading between the Yucatan and Cuba, then heading toward the Louisiana/Mississippi coastline on June 15th.
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TheStormExpert
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SoupBone wrote:Looks like the 12Z GFS wants to spin something up around June 13th, heading between the Yucatan and Cuba, then heading toward the Louisiana/Mississippi coastline on June 15th.
The GFS started doing this about a week or so ago then dropped it for many runs only to just now bring it back within the 7-8 day timeframe. It’ll be interesting to see if or when the Euro jumps on board.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
TheStormExpert wrote:SoupBone wrote:Looks like the 12Z GFS wants to spin something up around June 13th, heading between the Yucatan and Cuba, then heading toward the Louisiana/Mississippi coastline on June 15th.
The GFS started doing this about a week or so ago then dropped it for many runs only to just now bring it back within the 7-8 day timeframe. It’ll be interesting to see if or when the Euro jumps on board.
Nothing from Euro at 12z.
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Im assuming this is development associated with a tropical wave. Seen this scenario in prior years where the GFS tries for development WCARIB/GOM and the Euro delays development until it reaches the EPAC. Not saying the same will happen again this year butI think the Euros solution was correct each time.
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Kingarabian wrote:Im assuming this is development associated with a tropical wave. Seen this scenario in prior years where the GFS tries for development WCARIB/GOM and the Euro delays development until it reaches the EPAC. Not saying the same will happen again this year butI think the Euros solution was correct each time.
Scratch this, seems to be two different entities.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
This week will have milestones in the models front as ECMWF and FV3 will get upgrades while GFS is out.
https://twitter.com/mfdwx/status/1138061443713122304
https://twitter.com/mfdwx/status/1138061443713122304
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
cycloneye wrote:This week will have milestones in the models front as ECMWF and FV3 will get upgrades while GFS is out.
https://twitter.com/mfdwx/status/1138061443713122304
So FV3 will completely replace the existing GFS? Will they stop running GFS altogether or gradually phase it out?
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cycloneye
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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floridasun78
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion -- ECMWF Upgrades Tue at 12z / FV3 upgrades Wed at 12z (GFS ends)
so gfs will not run any more now will be fv3-gfs?
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USTropics
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
floridasun78 wrote:so gfs will not run any more now will be fv3-gfs?
SoupBone wrote:cycloneye wrote:This week will have milestones in the models front as ECMWF and FV3 will get upgrades while GFS is out.
https://twitter.com/mfdwx/status/1138061443713122304
So FV3 will completely replace the existing GFS? Will they stop running GFS altogether or gradually phase it out?
Correct, the FV3 will completely replace the current operational GFS model as of June 12th, 2019. NCEP has listed "Removal of Legacy Products" for June 12th (https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/). You can read more about the upgrade here as well - https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf
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tolakram
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion -- ECMWF Upgrades Tue at 12z / FV3 upgrades Wed at 12z (GFS ends)
Did the FV3 ever show consistent improvement over the GFS? Did it come closer to the Euro, performance wise?
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USTropics
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion -- ECMWF Upgrades Tue at 12z / FV3 upgrades Wed at 12z (GFS ends)
tolakram wrote:Did the FV3 ever show consistent improvement over the GFS? Did it come closer to the Euro, performance wise?
Pretty good article here on Forbes - https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallsh ... ff76506c2b.
Basically it moves the GFS up to 3rd (still lags behind ECMWF and UKMET).
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cycloneye
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion -- ECMWF Upgrades Tue at 12z / FV3 upgrades Wed at 12z (GFS ends)
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cycloneye
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion -- ECMWF Upgrades Tue at 12z / FV3 upgrades Wed at 12z (GFS ends)
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cycloneye
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion -- ECMWF Upgrades Tue at 12z / FV3 upgrades Wed at 12z (GFS ends)
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