Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today (Is Invest 95L)

[Category5Kaiju]

The 6z run continues to show how inept the GFS is at modeling tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic. Just like with Larry’s precursor, it has this wave interact with other areas of vorticity and get spun around/ripped apart. The Euro has done a far better job sniffing out MDR genesis so far this year, quite a change from its abysmal performance in 2020.

Speaking of the Euro, that 00z run would probably lead to a 120-130 kt Cat 4 with all the 29.5-30C waters it’ll be going over.

What's for sure, unlike last year that was a literal I-95 New York City-style traffic jam in the MDR, causing no true Cape Verde hurricanes besides Teddy to occur, this year does not seem to have that kind of issue, and we could very well see our next true Cape Verde hurricane occur within the next week.

[Iceresistance]

Strongest Euro Model run yet on the 2nd Tropical Wave

[Stormybajan]

Strongest Euro Model run yet on the 2nd Tropical Wave

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_atl_11.png

Looking at this...I wonder if Bermuda might be in play more so than with Larry

[cycloneye]

Invest comming as it hits the water. Pre invest text.

GENESIS035, AL, L, , , , , 78, 2021, DB, O, 2021091200, 9999999999, , 035, , , , GENESIS, , AL782021

[Category5Kaiju]

Strongest Euro Model run yet on the 2nd Tropical Wave

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_atl_11.png

It's extremely subtle and something you can see for yourself if you view that last several frames or so, but there seems to be a great slowdown in speed when it recurves east of the islands. Unfortunately the run does not go further than that, but I am hoping that that slowdown does not portend a turn to the west.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06z GEFS spread from Florida to 40W by Day 10. Even by Day 5 the uncertainty is pretty big.

06z operational GFS is clueless and is doing the usual splitting the vortex in two thing.

[SFLcane]

KMA showing a Dorian intensification setup with dual outflow channels.

[gatorcane]

06z GEFS spread from Florida to 40W by Day 10. Even by Day 5 the uncertainty is pretty big.

06z operational GFS is clueless and is doing the usual splitting the vortex in two thing.

Yes big spread with the mean recurving east of the Lesser Antilles. From 72-210 hour animation:

[toad strangler]

https://i.ibb.co/hZzPC7t/Ska-rmavbild-2021-09-12-kl-10-31-54.png

Certainly don’t trust Eps that far out. Certainly no fish in the op.

https://i.postimg.cc/Hs1p1MtS/AA8-DCDD4-11-C9-4855-9572-AD692-C253-B71.gif

I would still trust the ensemble mean more than I would a single operational run. Furthermore, both the EPS and the operational EC show a TUTT-related weakness around ~25°N 52°W in a week (168h). Both the operational EC and a majority of the EPS members show a hurricane at that time, so the weakness near ~25°N 52°W allows a deepening hurricane to gain sufficient latitude as to miss the Leeward Islands and Hebert Box #1. If this system were to miss Hebert Box #1, the risk to South Florida would decrease substantially. If the system were to gain sufficient latitude before coming under the influence of the ridge, the chances of an OTS path, or at least a track that would miss the CONUS, would go up substantially, especially if both location and climatology are taken into account. So one does not need to know the long-range pattern in order to deduce a reasonable outcome, that is, OTS.

Like I said, it's easy to be a bear with far eastern systems. No matter what the calender says. OTS is the overwhelming climo outcome. Every time. Everybody knows it #easy to lean on.

[SFLcane]

Ugly if it came to pass…

[Shell Mound]

Ugly if it came to pass…

https://i.imgur.com/gwHW31f.gif

That model is highly unreliable. As for the operational ECMWF, it is well to the west of the EPS members. OTS and/or Bermuda is most plausible as of now.

[aspen]

Ugly if it came to pass…

https://i.imgur.com/gwHW31f.gif

That would easily be a very intense Category 5 if that track and UL setup were to verify. 2-3 days over 29.5-31C SSTs that can support a sub-900mb storm with dual outflow channels…thank goodness that’s probably the SW limit of possible tracks.

[Shell Mound]

Ugly if it came to pass…

https://i.imgur.com/gwHW31f.gif

That would easily be a very intense Category 5 if that track and UL setup were to verify. 2-3 days over 29.5-31C SSTs that can support a sub-900mb storm with dual outflow channels…thank goodness that’s probably the SW limit of possible tracks.

The Korean model is not a credible model. The operational ECMWF likely represents the westernmost outlier as of now. EPS/GEFS means are farther east.

[aspen]

Ugly if it came to pass…

https://i.imgur.com/gwHW31f.gif

That would easily be a very intense Category 5 if that track and UL setup were to verify. 2-3 days over 29.5-31C SSTs that can support a sub-900mb storm with dual outflow channels…thank goodness that’s probably the SW limit of possible tracks.

The Korean model is not a credible model. The operational ECMWF likely represents the westernmost outlier as of now. EPS/GEFS means are farther east.

If Chanthu were to pump the ridge more than what the Euro/GFS are showing (which is a big if this far out), then a track like that would be the SW limit. A Larry-like track or a track slightly further east would be the NE limit, although the EPS mean is definitely further SW than Larry’s track and could be a Jose-like close call for the Leeward Islands.

[Category5Kaiju]

Certainly don’t trust Eps that far out. Certainly no fish in the op.

https://i.postimg.cc/Hs1p1MtS/AA8-DCDD4-11-C9-4855-9572-AD692-C253-B71.gif

I would still trust the ensemble mean more than I would a single operational run. Furthermore, both the EPS and the operational EC show a TUTT-related weakness around ~25°N 52°W in a week (168h). Both the operational EC and a majority of the EPS members show a hurricane at that time, so the weakness near ~25°N 52°W allows a deepening hurricane to gain sufficient latitude as to miss the Leeward Islands and Hebert Box #1. If this system were to miss Hebert Box #1, the risk to South Florida would decrease substantially. If the system were to gain sufficient latitude before coming under the influence of the ridge, the chances of an OTS path, or at least a track that would miss the CONUS, would go up substantially, especially if both location and climatology are taken into account. So one does not need to know the long-range pattern in order to deduce a reasonable outcome, that is, OTS.

Like I said, it's easy to be a bear with far eastern systems. No matter what the calender says. OTS is the overwhelming climo outcome. Every time. Everybody knows it #easy to lean on.

For the most part, yes. Until, that is, we get a storm that gives off a stern warning sign that it isn't likely to be completely OTS.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMHO, the pattern in place favors a more western system than Larry. Stronger ridging looks present, and there's the unknown wildcard posed by the WPAC Super Typhoon.

At the same time, it's hard to get a storm to impact major landmass this time of year.

Here's the 00z EPS @ 240 hours. Should the system not develop quickly, this is not a good pattern to avoid land impacts.

[Blown Away]

Strongest Euro Model run yet on the 2nd Tropical Wave

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_atl_11.png

Days 7-10 leaving so much suspense with the slowdown... Looks like Caribbean will be a near miss and climatology says after Sept 20th a WNW path across the Atlantic will turn N to miss SFL/GOM but Mid Atlantic still in play... Doesn’t seem as a sure thing to turn N like Larry... Many days of watching ahead!!!

[chaser1]

Ugly if it came to pass…

https://i.imgur.com/gwHW31f.gif

SFLcane, could you post the 500mb for that same time period for this Korean model? I'm curious what it's "downstream depiction" for CONUS toughing shows.

[chaser1]

Strongest Euro Model run yet on the 2nd Tropical Wave

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_atl_11.png

Days 7-10 leaving so much suspense with the slowdown... Looks like Caribbean will be a near miss and climatology says after Sept 20th a WNW path across the Atlantic will turn N to miss SFL/GOM but Mid Atlantic still in play... Doesn’t seem as a sure thing to turn N like Larry... Many days of watching ahead!!!

Agreed. If anomalous 500mb heights were to verify over the NE CONUS and SE Canada.... lookout Eastern Seaboard..... everyone from the Keys to the Northern GOM, to Maine could be in play.

[AutoPenalti]

I’ve never seen a Korean model posted before. I wonder if it’s a standalone or if it uses a parent model.