2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[TheWisestofAll]

It will be busy but for who? Whether its another fish parade or Conus/Islands disaster, who knows.

This will likely depend on how much the -NAO persists. Will it be like 2010 and last well into the season pushing everything out to sea, or will it be more like 2017 and collapse bringing activity further west?
Climate models seem to indicate the latter with the warm nose off Newfoundland, but we won't really know the synoptics at play in detail until we get to April/May.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1746272145955516854




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1746272148040093733

[cycloneye]

Replies. 300?

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1746273653539422693




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1746275483363217417




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1746275611583148399

[SFLcane]

fyi.. the problem is the 300 ace honestly was not a really a joke the way i see it the potential we are seeing on these climate models is very worrisome for this season. Hope things change

[NotSparta]

You know what kind of season is appearing on the horizon when my Twitter replies are seasonal discussions and it's January 13

[cycloneye]

You know what kind of season is appearing on the horizon when my Twitter replies are seasonal discussions and it's January 13

That is why decided to begin this thread on December 1 and to start the Storm2k numbers poll on March 1.

[TheWisestofAll]

You know what kind of season is appearing on the horizon when my Twitter replies are seasonal discussions and it's January 13

That is why decided to begin this thread on December 1 and to start the Storm2k numbers poll on March 1.

I don't even recall 2020 or 2021 discussions getting this heated until March. I maybe saw a few weenies gettin giddy, but a lot of the greater discussion didn't happen till later. It's honestly kind of wild.

[cycloneye]

The negative NAO that is going on right now, will go up to positive late this month, but not by a lot and the big question is how will the sst's respond in the Atlantic / MDR.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .sprd2.png

[zzzh]

There will be a strong easterly surge in the MDR and I expect the ssta to drop to around +0.7. Btw long range models are showing a major -NAO starting around Jan 28-30.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1746674896480993583

[tolakram]

Will this be the most over-hyped season ever? I get the indicators are all pointing hyperactive but the spring barrier looms large, as it does every year.

[SFLcane]

Will this be the most over-hyped season ever? I get the indicators are all pointing hyperactive but the spring barrier looms large, as it does every year.

El nino's demise is all but certain as it's stated by the CPC in the coming months followed by neutral conditions with the possiblity of la nina come ASO. Everything points to a VERY favorable Atlantic come June.

[cycloneye]

One thing to watch is how the SOI behaves in the next few months. Right now is creeping to positive.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1746962226714427506

[cycloneye]

Mark and me. Asked him about the Caribbean.

 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/1746999727302787402




 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1747001011317657952

[Blown Away]

What is the best indicator to watch now that would give clues on the potential BH strength during the hurricane season?

[cycloneye]

What is the best indicator to watch now that would give clues on the potential BH strength during the hurricane season?

The Northern Atlantic Occillation. (NAO)

[aspen]

fyi.. the problem is the 300 ace honestly was not a really a joke the way i see it the potential we are seeing on these climate models is very worrisome for this season. Hope things change

Is 300 ACE even physically possible for the Atlantic? It would probably require a 2005/17 mash-up in terms of overall storm frequency and MDR activity, but I don’t think a season that favorable is possible. Plus, upwelling would become quite an issue after a while.

[Woofde]

fyi.. the problem is the 300 ace honestly was not a really a joke the way i see it the potential we are seeing on these climate models is very worrisome for this season. Hope things change

Is 300 ACE even physically possible for the Atlantic? It would probably require a 2005/17 mash-up in terms of overall storm frequency and MDR activity, but I don’t think a season that favorable is possible. Plus, upwelling would become quite an issue after a while.

I think it's **possible** just extremely unlikely. Just have to imagine a season with 2023 levels of warmth, with a 2005 style front half and a 2020 style back half.

[Teban54]

fyi.. the problem is the 300 ace honestly was not a really a joke the way i see it the potential we are seeing on these climate models is very worrisome for this season. Hope things change

Is 300 ACE even physically possible for the Atlantic? It would probably require a 2005/17 mash-up in terms of overall storm frequency and MDR activity, but I don’t think a season that favorable is possible. Plus, upwelling would become quite an issue after a while.

I think it's **possible** just extremely unlikely. Just have to imagine a season with 2023 levels of warmth, with a 2005 style front half and a 2020 style back half.

I think you'd need a 2005-style early season (June-August), 2017-style MDR season (September) and 2020-style late season (October-November) for that. 2005's MDR season was notably lackluster when compared to similar seasons (only a single Cat 1 Philippe within MDR east of 60W), and its September ACE was mostly helped by the Gulf (Rita) and the subtropics (C3 Maria, C1 Nate, C1 Ophelia).

Such a hypothetical season might actually not be completely detached from reality. The early season (2005-like) is mostly focused on Caribbean and Gulf, allowing the MDR to continue warming up. September (2017-like) instead has the bulk of its activity in the MDR proper, which has been largely untouched, while also allowing the Caribbean time to rebound as storms recurve. (The same is largely true for 2005 and 2020.) Finally, in late season (2020-like), the Caribbean explodes again after getting a break in September. This would address a lot of the upwelling problems that aspen mentioned.

Of course, this is still very, very unlikely to happen.