2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Yes!!! They mentioned my system I noted on here yesterday.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro is trying to sneak something up the west coast of MX and near Baja. With west coast troughing, re curve potential. Looks like the EPAC may defy odds again after all.

[Yellow Evan]

12z Euro is trying to sneak something up the west coast of MX and near Baja. With west coast troughing, re curve potential. Looks like the EPAC may defy odds again after all.

Euro has a tendency to show phantom storms near Baja. However, this seems pretty viable. CFS ensembles are keen on stuff as well, and the GFS is starting to hint at it. Shear could be an issue, but it will be over super warm SST's (one of if not the warmest in the world).

[Yellow Evan]

Might worth re-posting this. I posted this originally but as we approach the 60% clip, I guess it's time to re-post.





This and the record SST's, +PDO, and developing El Nino, -IOD, and lack of ATL activity outweigh the inactive generation we have been in since 1995 (or 1998).

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302315
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico. Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[Kingarabian]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302315
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico. Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[Yellow Evan]

To me, I get this feel that this will be one of those systems that form unexpectedly w/o model support.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310530
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico. Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week within a
few hundred miles of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow
development of this system is possible after that time while it
moves slowly northwestward and nears the the southern Baja
California peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

Invest 93E is up.

[Yellow Evan]

Man, the activity the past month was incredible.

[Yellow Evan]

Despite lack of MJO, good agreement that activity should continue throughout September to some extent, just slowed. IMO will pick up again to August levels eventually.

[Ntxw]

Regarding 93E, I don't recall this by memory too well but the 5h pattern kind of reminds me of Manuel last year with a couple of dueling invests (Ingrid to be) on each side of MX like with 93E and 99L. Not that kind of monsoonal trough but is a similar good analog be that?

[Yellow Evan]

Regarding 93E, I don't recall this by memory too well but the 5h pattern kind of reminds me of Manuel last year with a couple of dueling invests (Ingrid to be) on each side of MX like with 93E and 99L. Not that kind of monsoonal trough but is a similar good analog be that?

I've thought about it. I doubt MX will get destroyed like it did last year though. I do agree that the overall patterns favors system's on both sides of the coast though. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011429
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FOUR STORMS FORMED IN THE BASIN DURING AUGUST. ALL FOUR BECAME
HURRICANES...AND TWO OF THOSE BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES. IN
ADDITION...ISELLE...WHICH FORMED AT THE END OF JULY...ALSO BECAME
A MAJOR HURRICANE. BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...
THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN AUGUST...WITH TWO
BECOMING HURRICANES AND ONE OF THOSE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN ABOUT 60 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE VALUE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014EPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
MH AMANDA 22-29 MAY 155
TS BORIS* 2-4 JUN 45
MH CRISTINA* 9-15 JUN 150
TS DOUGLAS 28 JUN-5 JUL 45
TS ELIDA* 30 JUN-2 JUL 50
TS FAUSTO 7-9 JUL 45
MH GENEVIEVE 25 JUL-13 AUG** 160
H HERNAN 26-29 JUL 75
MH ISELLE 31 JUL-9 AUG** 140
MH JULIO 4-15 AUG** 115
H KARINA 13-26 AUG 80
H LOWELL 18-24 AUG 75
MH MARIE 22-29 AUG 160
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.
** DATES INCLUDE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IN THE CENTRAL
AND/OR WESTERN PACIFIC BASINS.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT

[Yellow Evan]

CMC picking up another TC near MX. Seems buyable.

CFS hinting at a very active second half to the month.

[Ntxw]

Looks like a good bet 8th straight hurricane, 11th total, and a run at maybe 7th major for EPAC with 93E

[Yellow Evan]

CPC notes in text something could form neat week. Not shown on their actual graph. We'll see if models start changing that WCARB/BOC storm they show over to the EPAC, which is what you sometimes see in May and June.

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF develops Odile by 168HR and has a new system taking shape behind it

[gatorcane]

The number of storms this EPAC is cranking out is amazing and the fact it has surpassed the WPAC just shows how super active it has been. You got to think that somehow this slow Atlantic season so far has something to do with this hyperactive EPAC