Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[slamdaddy]

so a Pouch or (P) is a tropical wave essentially right ?

[Steve]

Lol Bob. I would have taken grandmaster Alyono's bet for 25. Hell, twenty-five hundred for me would have been worth a 25.00 investment. But he's right. East of Betmuda might happen after western basin impacts on the way out to Scandinavia or something. Haha. But yeah. I'm with you. I gotta get another 50.00 into Storm2k in the next few weeks myself. It's not going East of Bermuda. It's most likely not recurving. It's probably not even coming in "north" up the Florida Peninsula. It may hit FL, but probably not south to north.

Steve, you seem to see a more westerly component to this in the vicinity of the GOM based on your last statement. Can you explain (without getting too deep into the weeds?)

I'll try. It's a little tough because state-casting always annoyed me on the Internet and many people, including a ton I respect, do it. We've all seen the Florida v NC, FL v Texas, Louisiana vs wherever so-called wobble wars. But in this case, and assuming the main area develops since they split the pouches, the teleconnection is in the west pacific. I learned that from Bastardi in the late 90s or early 2000s. Meteorologists during WWII (I visited the incredible museum today) were focused on weather for the invasion of the islands and battles against the Japanase Navy and probably the planned invasion of Japan itself, learned that there was a downstream implication of 7-10 days based on weather patterns in the WPAC. So if you apply that during peak season for instance, storms going into Vietnam, Korea, Taiwan, China, Japan, etc. will sometimes give you a rough outline of what weather patterns a week to ten days out in the Western Atlantic. Those examples are generally signs of ridging in the Western Atlantic 7-10'days after. Recurves east of Japan often show there will be a trough along or just east of the US East Coast in the same time frame.

In other words, if there is ridging in the WPAC, it's often mirrored in the WATL a week or more out. Same thing with troughs. If there is one across or just east of Japan , you can expect similar conditions a week or so out on the US East Coast.

This teleconnection isn't 100%, and it works best during the peak of the season because on the edges you have things like fronts in June and then EPAC recurves in September/October that can get in the pattern and alter it.

Okay so Typhoon Megi has been generally moving WNW toward Southern Taiwan. Bulletin #9 shows it now moving at 295 which is fairly close to WNW on a collision course with Taiwan on Tuesday followed by a slight bend toward the West and hitting a couple hundred miles north of Hong Kong on Wednesday. So Megi is moving WNW and will move slightly west of its current heading in a couple of days. This says no trough in the Eastern US the following week.

So if you have all that (hopefully it's somewhat clear), consider these other factors:

1) GFS has been notorious for breaking down ridges in the eastern US forever. I know it's been tweaked a couple of times recently, so I'm not 100% sure whether those physics were corrected in the model.

2) GFS shows a front toward the end of this week (call it 5-6 days out) sweeping through and then a second high building in behind it from the west thereafter. So unless the first trough is really deep, the system has gained a ton of altitude or it moves faster than forecast, the front should have no affect on whatever is down there.

3) second ridge builds in per Euro; and there's no way the system can go north or east. Now the caveat is if some random surface feature formed off the Carolinas or as the GFS showed and the high is centered almost to Canada, there could be an escape route. Also we can't ignore a Charlie situation since we saw that in 04. And it wouldn't be so much from a deep trough, but I'm not 100% convinced the spinning and land interaction didn't pull that system in.

I know this came off rambling. But the time for recurve is late next week, and unless it gains altitude or slows way down for the next trough behind the next high, which would probably be after 10/9, there doesn't look like there will be a shot at a recurve.

[Alyono]

I fully expect this to turn to the northwest or north-northwest...


... after it hits Aruba

[Steve]

I don't see Opal in the graphic above but thought it was an October storm that supposedly hit this area (SE AL)

Opal came from the southwest. It's a 180 comparison.

[USTropics]

Through 72 hours, mirroring the 18z run. 12z and 06z were slightly stronger at this timeframe.

[USTropics]

so a Pouch or (P) is a tropical wave essentially right ?

That's correct. They're tracked by the Naval Postgraduate School.

At the core of PREDICT research was an investigation of tropical waves and sub-tropical disturbances and their role in producing a dynamically favored “sweet spots”. These so-called pockets of air are thought to protect growing storms from conditions that could lead to their demise. This protection zone from hostile storm killers plays a critical role in the spawning of disastrous tropical disturbances, since only about 20 percent of all Atlantic disturbances actually grow into these devastating storms.

“The overarching hypothesis is that the tropical waves that come off the African continent or are spawned in the Atlantic somewhere provide some protection in a particular region of the wave called the moist critical layer,” said Montgomery. “This area within the trough axis of the wave may provide a focal point and region of protection to be able to sustain thunderstorm activity and allow these thunderstorms to congeal. In a nutshell, that’s the basic idea.”

This concept, known as the “marsupial paradigm”, was brought forth in a 2009 study published by Montgomery and research colleagues Dr. Zhuo Wang and Dr. Timothy Dunkerton. It hypothesized that storm clusters moving at a similar speed to surrounding air flow in the lower troposphere are largely protected from being torn apart. This protective environment is a likened to a marsupial’s pouch during gestation, and is thought to be a key ingredient in the birth of hurricanes.

“We call it a marsupial pouch, because it's like a mother kangaroo's pouch that provides a nurturing environment for the storm and gets it to the point where it gains enough strength to jump out of the pouch," noted Montgomery.

The study and understanding of cyclogenesis can help forecasters and scientist better track and forecast these precursory conditions held within these pouches. These clues to hurricane formation can lead to earlier notification and storm tracking times. Ultimately, these deterministic genesis predictions can save lives.

Article - http://www.nps.edu/About/News/NPS-Professor-Leads-Ground-Breaking-Hurricane-Research-.html

Research site - http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2016-atlantic.html

[stormreader]

Lol Bob. I would have taken grandmaster Alyono's bet for 25. Hell, twenty-five hundred for me would have been worth a 25.00 investment. But he's right. East of Betmuda might happen after western basin impacts on the way out to Scandinavia or something. Haha. But yeah. I'm with you. I gotta get another 50.00 into Storm2k in the next few weeks myself. It's not going East of Bermuda. It's most likely not recurving. It's probably not even coming in "north" up the Florida Peninsula. It may hit FL, but probably not south to north.

Steve, you seem to see a more westerly component to this in the vicinity of the GOM based on your last statement. Can you explain (without getting too deep into the weeds?)

I'll try. It's a little tough because state-casting always annoyed me on the Internet and many people, including a ton I respect, do it. We've all seen the Florida v NC, FL v Texas, Louisiana vs wherever so-called wobble wars. But in this case, and assuming the main area develops since they split the pouches, the teleconnection is in the west pacific. I learned that from Bastardi in the late 90s or early 2000s. Meteorologists during WWII (I visited the incredible museum today) were focused on weather for the invasion of the islands and battles against the Japanase Navy and probably the planned invasion of Japan itself, learned that there was a downstream implication of 7-10 days based on weather patterns in the WPAC. So if you apply that during peak season for instance, storms going into Vietnam, Korea, Taiwan, China, Japan, etc. will sometimes give you a rough outline of what weather patterns a week to ten days out in the Western Atlantic. Those examples are generally signs of ridging in the Western Atlantic 7-10'days after. Recurves east of Japan often show there will be a trough along or just east of the US East Coast in the same time frame.

In other words, if there is ridging in the WPAC, it's often mirrored in the WATL a week or more out. Same thing with troughs. If there is one across or just east of Japan , you can expect similar conditions a week or so out on the US East Coast.

This teleconnection isn't 100%, and it works best during the peak of the season because on the edges you have things like fronts in June and then EPAC recurves in September/October that can get in the pattern and alter it.

Okay so Typhoon Megi has been generally moving WNW toward Southern Taiwan. Bulletin #9 shows it now moving at 295 which is fairly close to WNW on a collision course with Taiwan on Tuesday followed by a slight bend toward the West and hitting a couple hundred miles north of Hong Kong on Wednesday. So Megi is moving WNW and will move slightly west of its current heading in a couple of days. This says no trough in the Eastern US the following week.

So if you have all that (hopefully it's somewhat clear), consider these other factors:

1) GFS has been notorious for breaking down ridges in the eastern US forever. I know it's been tweaked a couple of times recently, so I'm not 100% sure whether those physics were corrected in the model.

2) GFS shows a front toward the end of this week (call it 5-6 days out) sweeping through and then a second high building in behind it from the west thereafter. So unless the first trough is really deep, the system has gained a ton of altitude or it moves faster than forecast, the front should have no affect on whatever is down there.

3) second ridge builds in per Euro; and there's no way the system can go north or east. Now the caveat is if some random surface feature formed off the Carolinas or as the GFS showed and the high is centered almost to Canada, there could be an escape route. Also we can't ignore a Charlie situation since we saw that in 04. And it wouldn't be so much from a deep trough, but I'm not 100% convinced the spinning and land interaction didn't pull that system in.

I know this came off rambling. But the time for recurve is late next week, and unless it gains altitude or slows way down for the next trough behind the next high, which would probably be after 10/9, there doesn't look like there will be a shot at a recurve.

Thank you, not rambling at all! Appreciate it.

[USTropics]

Not much difference from the 18z run through 114 hours:

[Alyono]

I would not be surprised if this ends up stronger this run. The structure looks slightly better so far on the MU

[floridasun78]

i seen alot history hurr coming trough Cuba into south fl moving ne over Bahamas out to sea in oct as we get into Caribbean hurr season only thing Cuba can make system get weaker too their high mountain central part Cuba so south fl could see weaker system as cat 1or 2 depend how strong is it

[Alyono]

UKMET significantly stronger at 0Z

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.9N 51.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2016 72 13.2N 53.2W 1006 31
1200UTC 28.09.2016 84 13.1N 56.5W 1005 39
0000UTC 29.09.2016 96 13.3N 59.1W 999 51
1200UTC 29.09.2016 108 12.9N 61.9W 992 59
0000UTC 30.09.2016 120 12.7N 63.8W 982 65
1200UTC 30.09.2016 132 12.5N 65.0W 978 69
0000UTC 01.10.2016 144 12.2N 66.2W 974 67

[SFLcane]

Wow..

[Alyono]

Invest 97L has been named

[Ntxw]

Is Invest 97L