Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[SoupBone]

The GFS basically has it disappearing over Mississippi at 84 hours. Also, does it seem much faster on this run? Looks like a Tuesday night landfall.

[MississippiWx]

0z Canadian sticks with a strong TS that’s strengthening on approach. Landfall shifts east a good bit in line with Euro and GFS.

[TexasSam]

This is starting to seem like a bad dream in that we do something like Alison, or Harvey again.

[South Texas Storms]

0z UKMET looks quite similar in track to the past 2 runs of the Euro.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 27.6N 88.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 72 28.2N 89.3W 1007 35
1200UTC 05.09.2018 84 29.4N 90.5W 1004 38
0000UTC 06.09.2018 96 30.3N 91.4W 1001 32
1200UTC 06.09.2018 108 30.6N 92.8W 1000 28
0000UTC 07.09.2018 120 30.3N 94.2W 1000 28
1200UTC 07.09.2018 132 29.6N 95.4W 998 36
0000UTC 08.09.2018 144 28.9N 96.3W 997 41

[stormlover2013]

Image please

[SoupBone]

The Crazy Uncle puts between 3-8" of rain over the Greater Houston Area, with the more concentrated rainfall totals over Beaumont and Lake Charles (up to 16").

[tropicwatch]

In this gif, part of ULL just west of the tropical wave is very evident.

[djones65]

This is not declared an "invest" yet because there is no evidence of a surface low pressure area or circulation yet. As BLP pointed out previously, the broad rotation seen on imagery earlier is in the upper levels. Surface pressures are not falling yet...Although the divergent shear is allowing the blossoming of convection, it will not allow a "significant" cyclone to form at the moment. In 48 to72 hours things may be different as the system will be under lighter although still shearing upper winds... and due to the ridge to its north should continue a definitive pace west northwest towards the northern Gulf. Perhaps it will have the opportunity to be named, but unless something drastically changes, at best or the worst, depending on how one chooses to view it.... we will see a short-lived tropical storm with 40-50 mph winds make landfall over southern Louisiana and cause lots of rain... possibly spreading all the way to Texas if the ridge builds in stronger to its north... which is not a given.

The National Hurricane Center has an excellent grasp on this system and I just wanted to say... C'mon Man! LOL

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Having a surface low is not a requirement for an invest; there is no requirements a system has to meet to be tagged an invest, it's just an area of interest. I've seen a few clouds out in the middle of the Atlantic tagged as an "invest" before.

[paintplaye]

In this gif, part of ULL just west of the tropical wave is very evident.

Glad this was brought up, and it needs to be stated that a lot of the convection generated is from the ULL. If you really want to see this look at the upper-level WV on the GOES 16 and loop it over the last 96 or so frames. It's rather evident but models do indicate that it will gain some separation over the Eastern Gulf and maybe even help to ventilate the storm some. Until then I suspect development will be hard to come by.

[MississippiWx]

This is not declared an "invest" yet because there is no evidence of a surface low pressure area or circulation yet. As BLP pointed out previously, the broad rotation seen on imagery earlier is in the upper levels. Surface pressures are not falling yet...Although the divergent shear is allowing the blossoming of convection, it will not allow a "significant" cyclone to form at the moment. In 48 to72 hours things may be different as the system will be under lighter although still shearing upper winds... and due to the ridge to its north should continue a definitive pace west northwest towards the northern Gulf. Perhaps it will have the opportunity to be named, but unless something drastically changes, at best or the worst, depending on how one chooses to view it.... we will see a short-lived tropical storm with 40-50 mph winds make landfall over southern Louisiana and cause lots of rain... possibly spreading all the way to Texas if the ridge builds in stronger to its north... which is not a given.

The National Hurricane Center has an excellent grasp on this system and I just wanted to say... C'mon Man! LOL

1. A low at the surface is not a requirement for designation of invest. If that were so, there would be a whole lot less invests.

2. The chances of this becoming strong are not high, but there is a chance. The Euro has developed this into a hurricane two straight runs.

3. It’s okay to question the NHC here. While we all realize they have a handle on everything, it is odd they haven’t started running hurricane models on this system yet.

[SoupBone]

This is not declared an "invest" yet because there is no evidence of a surface low pressure area or circulation yet. As BLP pointed out previously, the broad rotation seen on imagery earlier is in the upper levels. Surface pressures are not falling yet...Although the divergent shear is allowing the blossoming of convection, it will not allow a "significant" cyclone to form at the moment. In 48 to72 hours things may be different as the system will be under lighter although still shearing upper winds... and due to the ridge to its north should continue a definitive pace west northwest towards the northern Gulf. Perhaps it will have the opportunity to be named, but unless something drastically changes, at best or the worst, depending on how one chooses to view it.... we will see a short-lived tropical storm with 40-50 mph winds make landfall over southern Louisiana and cause lots of rain... possibly spreading all the way to Texas if the ridge builds in stronger to its north... which is not a given.

The National Hurricane Center has an excellent grasp on this system and I just wanted to say... C'mon Man! LOL

1. A low at the surface is not a requirement for designation of invest. If that were so, there would be a whole lot less invests.

2. The chances of this becoming strong are not high, but there is a chance. The Euro has developed this into a hurricane two straight runs.

3. It’s okay to question the NHC here. While we all realize they have a handle on everything, it is odd they haven’t started running hurricane models on this system yet.

My concern about this is strictly a timing issue. There's very little time between now and landfall, if the models are to be believed. So if something does ramp up, people will not be prepared. This is the worst possible weekend for something like this because people are "checked out" of reality (Labor Day, Start of NCAA Football, etc.)

[Steve]

0z UKMET looks quite similar in track to the past 2 runs of the Euro.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 27.6N 88.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 72 28.2N 89.3W 1007 35
1200UTC 05.09.2018 84 29.4N 90.5W 1004 38
0000UTC 06.09.2018 96 30.3N 91.4W 1001 32
1200UTC 06.09.2018 108 30.6N 92.8W 1000 28
0000UTC 07.09.2018 120 30.3N 94.2W 1000 28
1200UTC 07.09.2018 132 29.6N 95.4W 998 36
0000UTC 08.09.2018 144 28.9N 96.3W 997 41

Hey STS. Correct me if I’m wrong but 30.6 is the most north of the recent runs, right? I thought the last 3 only got as far north as 28.something.

[Haris]

GFS has a very beneficial rain event for Texas without flooding ! Yes please !!!

[SoupBone]

Latest and greatest shear map.



Slightly increasing westward in the GoM, by 5 knots. Lessening around the wave.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I believe Haiti is the number one issue right now. The mountains there are not allowing room to breathe. IMHO.

[MississippiWx]

0z FV3 GFS is stronger with a moderate tropical storm making landfall near Gulfport/Biloxi.

[Clearcloudz]

00Z UKMET for anyone that wants to see it.

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-animation.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNMPR&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

[South Texas Storms]

0z UKMET looks quite similar in track to the past 2 runs of the Euro.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 27.6N 88.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 72 28.2N 89.3W 1007 35
1200UTC 05.09.2018 84 29.4N 90.5W 1004 38
0000UTC 06.09.2018 96 30.3N 91.4W 1001 32
1200UTC 06.09.2018 108 30.6N 92.8W 1000 28
0000UTC 07.09.2018 120 30.3N 94.2W 1000 28
1200UTC 07.09.2018 132 29.6N 95.4W 998 36
0000UTC 08.09.2018 144 28.9N 96.3W 997 41

Hey STS. Correct me if I’m wrong but 30.6 is the most north of the recent runs, right? I thought the last 3 only got as far north as 28.something.

Yeah Steve I think so. Shifted north from the past few runs, but still ends up in TX by the end of the week.

[SoupBone]

0z UKMET looks quite similar in track to the past 2 runs of the Euro.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 27.6N 88.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 72 28.2N 89.3W 1007 35
1200UTC 05.09.2018 84 29.4N 90.5W 1004 38
0000UTC 06.09.2018 96 30.3N 91.4W 1001 32
1200UTC 06.09.2018 108 30.6N 92.8W 1000 28
0000UTC 07.09.2018 120 30.3N 94.2W 1000 28
1200UTC 07.09.2018 132 29.6N 95.4W 998 36
0000UTC 08.09.2018 144 28.9N 96.3W 997 41

Hey STS. Correct me if I’m wrong but 30.6 is the most north of the recent runs, right? I thought the last 3 only got as far north as 28.something.

Yeah Steve I think so. Shifted north from the past few runs, but still ends up in TX by the end of the week.

If I'm seeing this correctly, the UKMET keeps the majority of the precipitation offshore for some reason. I guess it's not location, but rather amounts to look at. Around 16" offshore which could make its way further inland.