ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Looks like time is running out. While it has an effect & downwelling KW, it's been underwhelming, and there's not much going for +ENSO until mid June. It's already not doing so well and another 3 weeks w/o significant forcing sure isn't a good way to sustain an El Niño.

If you want to look at it from this point of view, it won't look impressive. But if you look at it from a numbers perspective, it did its job.

It had net warming of about +3C in most areas beneath the subsurface which is what true WWB's typically do. It looks underwhelming because we're not seeing sexy +3C/+4C anomalies which is not possible due to this impressive upwelling Kelvin wave peaking with widespread -2C anomalies. Below 120 meters, most of these -2C anomalies are gone and are replaced with less cooler anomalies, and 120M and above there's a large area of +1C/+1.5C anomalies. So In reality this WWB bought Nino a lot more time because now we're seeing +1.0C anomalies surface from Nino 4 to Nino 3, with a lot more juice to work with compared to the beginning of May.

[NotSparta]

Looks like time is running out. While it has an effect & downwelling KW, it's been underwhelming, and there's not much going for +ENSO until mid June. It's already not doing so well and another 3 weeks w/o significant forcing sure isn't a good way to sustain an El Niño.

If you want to look at it from this point of view, it won't look impressive. But if you look at it from a numbers perspective, it did its job.

It had net warming of about +3C in most areas beneath the subsurface which is what true WWB's typically do. It looks underwhelming because we're not seeing sexy +3C/+4C anomalies which is not possible due to this impressive upwelling Kelvin wave peaking with widespread -2C anomalies. Below 120 meters, most of these -2C anomalies are gone and are replaced with less cooler anomalies, and 120M and above there's a large area of +1C/+1.5C anomalies. So In reality this WWB bought Nino a lot more time because now we're seeing +1.0C anomalies surface from Nino 4 to Nino 3, with a lot more juice to work with compared to the beginning of May.

Meh. Most of those huge differences are from it downwelling into where the upwelling KW was. It's only at +2°C, and the heat that's there isn't really significant enough to keep the Niño really going. Couple that w/ a coming possible EWB and then the heat present would begin to decay.

However it's more heat to get rid of, so it looks like this will cause a brief boost for the Niño, putting off a transition.

[CyclonicFury]

Looks like time is running out. While it has an effect & downwelling KW, it's been underwhelming, and there's not much going for +ENSO until mid June. It's already not doing so well and another 3 weeks w/o significant forcing sure isn't a good way to sustain an El Niño.

If you want to look at it from this point of view, it won't look impressive. But if you look at it from a numbers perspective, it did its job.

It had net warming of about +3C in most areas beneath the subsurface which is what true WWB's typically do. It looks underwhelming because we're not seeing sexy +3C/+4C anomalies which is not possible due to this impressive upwelling Kelvin wave peaking with widespread -2C anomalies. Below 120 meters, most of these -2C anomalies are gone and are replaced with less cooler anomalies, and 120M and above there's a large area of +1C/+1.5C anomalies. So In reality this WWB bought Nino a lot more time because now we're seeing +1.0C anomalies surface from Nino 4 to Nino 3, with a lot more juice to work with compared to the beginning of May.

I'll have to disagree with you there. If the subsurface really would have warmed by 3C, then there would be no negative anomalies left, and there would be anomalies of greater than +4C above 100 meters since that region was already warmer than average. While it has eroded the cool pool and there has been some modest warming over the western Pacific subsurface, a "net warming of 3C in most areas" is a stretch. The thermocline has been pushed slightly downward, but the cool anomalies have persisted below 150m in most areas. I'd say the net warming has been closer to +1C or so.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like time is running out. While it has an effect & downwelling KW, it's been underwhelming, and there's not much going for +ENSO until mid June. It's already not doing so well and another 3 weeks w/o significant forcing sure isn't a good way to sustain an El Niño.

If you want to look at it from this point of view, it won't look impressive. But if you look at it from a numbers perspective, it did its job.

It had net warming of about +3C in most areas beneath the subsurface which is what true WWB's typically do. It looks underwhelming because we're not seeing sexy +3C/+4C anomalies which is not possible due to this impressive upwelling Kelvin wave peaking with widespread -2C anomalies. Below 120 meters, most of these -2C anomalies are gone and are replaced with less cooler anomalies, and 120M and above there's a large area of +1C/+1.5C anomalies. So In reality this WWB bought Nino a lot more time because now we're seeing +1.0C anomalies surface from Nino 4 to Nino 3, with a lot more juice to work with compared to the beginning of May.

Meh. Most of those huge differences are from it downwelling into where the upwelling KW was. It's only at +2°C, and the heat that's there isn't really significant enough to keep the Niño really going. Couple that w/ a coming possible EWB and then the heat present would begin to decay.

However it's more heat to get rid of, so it looks like this will cause a brief boost for the Niño, putting off a transition.

OHC is important for an El Nino, but you can have sky high OHC and it wont necessarily reflect to the surface as we've seen the past 10 months. The closest ENSO analogs I see with 2019 is 2005 and 2017. Both seasons flipped to neutral then cool neutral starting in July and it's important to know if 2019 will do the same. Right now 2019 is holding on pretty well compared to those seasons, especially atmospherically. So while this WWB is not pushing this El Nino to moderate or strong, it's continuing the status quo.

[NotSparta]

If you want to look at it from this point of view, it won't look impressive. But if you look at it from a numbers perspective, it did its job.

It had net warming of about +3C in most areas beneath the subsurface which is what true WWB's typically do. It looks underwhelming because we're not seeing sexy +3C/+4C anomalies which is not possible due to this impressive upwelling Kelvin wave peaking with widespread -2C anomalies. Below 120 meters, most of these -2C anomalies are gone and are replaced with less cooler anomalies, and 120M and above there's a large area of +1C/+1.5C anomalies. So In reality this WWB bought Nino a lot more time because now we're seeing +1.0C anomalies surface from Nino 4 to Nino 3, with a lot more juice to work with compared to the beginning of May.

Meh. Most of those huge differences are from it downwelling into where the upwelling KW was. It's only at +2°C, and the heat that's there isn't really significant enough to keep the Niño really going. Couple that w/ a coming possible EWB and then the heat present would begin to decay.

However it's more heat to get rid of, so it looks like this will cause a brief boost for the Niño, putting off a transition.

OHC is important for an El Nino, but you can have sky high OHC and it wont necessarily reflect to the surface as we've seen the past 10 months. The closest ENSO analogs I see with 2019 is 2005 and 2017. Both seasons flipped to neutral then cool neutral starting in July and it's important to know if 2019 will do the same. Right now 2019 is holding on pretty well compared to those seasons, especially atmospherically. So while this WWB is not pushing this El Nino to moderate or strong, it's continuing the status quo.

Yeah. My point was these WWBs are just putting off neutral ENSO, and that's what's happening right now, so I agree then. Though, I think this is the strongest WWB in a while, as EHem monsoons begin soon. Those will interfere w/ +ENSO, esp w/ a strong African standing wave like 2018

[Kingarabian]

Meh. Most of those huge differences are from it downwelling into where the upwelling KW was. It's only at +2°C, and the heat that's there isn't really significant enough to keep the Niño really going. Couple that w/ a coming possible EWB and then the heat present would begin to decay.

However it's more heat to get rid of, so it looks like this will cause a brief boost for the Niño, putting off a transition.

OHC is important for an El Nino, but you can have sky high OHC and it wont necessarily reflect to the surface as we've seen the past 10 months. The closest ENSO analogs I see with 2019 is 2005 and 2017. Both seasons flipped to neutral then cool neutral starting in July and it's important to know if 2019 will do the same. Right now 2019 is holding on pretty well compared to those seasons, especially atmospherically. So while this WWB is not pushing this El Nino to moderate or strong, it's continuing the status quo.

Yeah. My point was these WWBs are just putting off neutral ENSO, and that's what's happening right now, so I agree then. Though, I think this is the strongest WWB in a while, as EHem monsoons begin soon. Those will interfere w/ +ENSO, esp w/ a strong African standing wave like 2018

Yeah and because while weak El Nino will not shut down the Atlantic hurricane season, there's a big difference between weak El Nino and possibly cool neutral. If cool neutral is in the cards for the peak of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, I would say an above average hurricane season is definitely in the cards and would need to boost my numbers up.

[NotSparta]

OHC is important for an El Nino, but you can have sky high OHC and it wont necessarily reflect to the surface as we've seen the past 10 months. The closest ENSO analogs I see with 2019 is 2005 and 2017. Both seasons flipped to neutral then cool neutral starting in July and it's important to know if 2019 will do the same. Right now 2019 is holding on pretty well compared to those seasons, especially atmospherically. So while this WWB is not pushing this El Nino to moderate or strong, it's continuing the status quo.

Yeah. My point was these WWBs are just putting off neutral ENSO, and that's what's happening right now, so I agree then. Though, I think this is the strongest WWB in a while, as EHem monsoons begin soon. Those will interfere w/ +ENSO, esp w/ a strong African standing wave like 2018

Yeah and because while weak El Nino will not shut down the Atlantic hurricane season, there's a big difference between weak El Nino and possibly cool neutral. If cool neutral is in the cards for the peak of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, I would say an above average hurricane season is definitely in the cards and would need to boost my numbers up.

For sure. I've upped my numbers due to less likely El Niño during ASO (imo), but it's still uncertain. Depends what this EWB does

[Kingarabian]

Yeah. My point was these WWBs are just putting off neutral ENSO, and that's what's happening right now, so I agree then. Though, I think this is the strongest WWB in a while, as EHem monsoons begin soon. Those will interfere w/ +ENSO, esp w/ a strong African standing wave like 2018

Yeah and because while weak El Nino will not shut down the Atlantic hurricane season, there's a big difference between weak El Nino and possibly cool neutral. If cool neutral is in the cards for the peak of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, I would say an above average hurricane season is definitely in the cards and would need to boost my numbers up.

For sure. I've upped my numbers due to less likely El Niño during ASO (imo), but it's still uncertain. Depends what this EWB does

I wonder if we'll get an actual EWB or just some normal to slightly above average easterlies. Euro is the only model showing strong amplification over the IO that would trigger a large scale trade burst, while the bias corrected GEFS and CFS have an incoherent signal after the MJO briefly enters the IO.

[NotSparta]

Yeah and because while weak El Nino will not shut down the Atlantic hurricane season, there's a big difference between weak El Nino and possibly cool neutral. If cool neutral is in the cards for the peak of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, I would say an above average hurricane season is definitely in the cards and would need to boost my numbers up.

For sure. I've upped my numbers due to less likely El Niño during ASO (imo), but it's still uncertain. Depends what this EWB does

I wonder if we'll get an actual EWB or just some normal to slightly above average easterlies. Euro is the only model showing strong amplification over the IO that would trigger a large scale trade burst, while the bias corrected GEFS and CFS have an incoherent signal after the MJO briefly enters the IO.

How have those models performed? I know the CFS has been terrible, seems that GFS has been ok, unsure of Euro

[Kingarabian]

For sure. I've upped my numbers due to less likely El Niño during ASO (imo), but it's still uncertain. Depends what this EWB does

I wonder if we'll get an actual EWB or just some normal to slightly above average easterlies. Euro is the only model showing strong amplification over the IO that would trigger a large scale trade burst, while the bias corrected GEFS and CFS have an incoherent signal after the MJO briefly enters the IO.

How have those models performed? I know the CFS has been terrible, seems that GFS has been ok, unsure of Euro

With the MJO? Tough to say, They all had right and wrong forecasts since the beginning of the year.

[TheStormExpert]

Chances for an east-based El Niño are quickly fading!

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1133003991074332672

[Kazmit]

I've seen the term Modoki El Niño being tossed around. Doesn't that usually make Atlantic hurricane seasons more active as opposed to a regular El Niño? Does this mean that even if El Niño doesn't fade away there's still a good chance for an above average season?

[chaser1]

Chances for an east-based El Niño are quickly fading!

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1133003991074332672

Uh-Ohhhhh This implies some "bad ju-ju" for the CONUS Gulf and E. Coast Coastlines this Summer/Fall

[Kingarabian]

Chances for an east-based El Niño are quickly fading!

[url]https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1133003991074332672[/rl]

I'm assuming something is wrong with the major upwelling shown on these GODAS/PENTAD analysis graphics. Because Nino 3 shouldn't be this warm with such negative anomalies surfacing (as depicted on these graphics for the past 10 days) and theyve also yet to show on the buoys.

[CyclonicFury]

Niño 3.4 back to +0.8°C. That likely means the ONI for AMJ will be above the El Niño threshold (likely either +0.6°C or +0.7°C).

[NotSparta]

Chances for an east-based El Niño are quickly fading!

[url]https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1133003991074332672[/rl]

I'm assuming something is wrong with the major upwelling shown on these GODAS/PENTAD analysis graphics. Because Nino 3 shouldn't be this warm with such negative anomalies surfacing (as depicted on these graphics for the past 10 days) and theyve also yet to show on the buoys.

There's a tiny warm pool that seems to have pushed down the thermocline there that warmed 1+2, and then 3.

However it seems like cooler anomalies are beginning to sfc

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Have we actually had an El Nino Modoki since 2004? IIRC, all the El Nino's since then have been fairly normal.

[NotSparta]

Made a thread about the Ningaloo Niño, and its effects on ENSO. Another factor that seems to be going against El Niño this yr

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1133163651358253057

[Ptarmigan]

Have we actually had an El Nino Modoki since 2004? IIRC, all the El Nino's since then have been fairly normal.

2009-2010 had a El Nino Modoki.

[Kingarabian]

Have we actually had an El Nino Modoki since 2004? IIRC, all the El Nino's since then have been fairly normal.

2009-2010 had a El Nino Modoki.

Started off traditional and peaked as a Modoki, but peak hurricane season it was traditional.