ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Well actually, the buoys show we lost quite a bit of OHC in the past 5 days:


The CPC's higher resolution subsurface graphic should update soon so let's see if the TAO buoy's are suffering from a resolution issue.

[Kingarabian]

During the March-April-May season it's good to monitor the SOI and see whether it's leaning towards La Nina, cool/warm-neutral, or El Nino.
Between March 5-15 there will be some CCKW/MJO pulse moving from the MC and into the Pacific, so the 12z Euro shows a negative leaning SOI for the first 10 days of March.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1234454335599398912

[StruThiO]

March 2nd update:

[WeatherEmperor]

I am not sure how reliable the BOM is the the ensemble mean shows neutral Enso by start of summer and possible La Nina towards the peak of the atlantic season.

Also have other models like Euro, Cansips, Ukmet, CFS, etc. that show mostly neutral to weak la nina as we approach July.




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[Kingarabian]

I am not sure how reliable the BOM is the the ensemble mean shows neutral Enso by start of summer and possible La Nina towards the peak of the atlantic season.

Also have other models like Euro, Cansips, Ukmet, CFS, etc. that show mostly neutral to weak la nina as we approach July.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200303/eceacd829e94d0dae2e66de931591f4c.png https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200303/47816100bf6789fb6826e1e904703e4d.png https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200303/c931e279f9d3cb27f351d05ea6ee8fa2.png https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200303/cc50278ba197e0ae093952b7b791ef3a.png


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I think the blend shows neutral to or cool neutral by July. The two extremities remain in the American models favoring La Nina and the Euro showing warm neutral/weak El-Nino. Also the BOM's threshold for El Nino or La Nina is +0.8C and -0.8C.

It's super hard to say right now what's going to happen but I think neutral is a safe bet until something changes. CFS shows a strong trade burst just east of the dateline that would encourage La Nina but at the same time (along with the Euro) shows a decent MJO pulse moving across the Pacific:



PC - Weathermodels.com

[SFLcane]

All in all a busy to very busy Atlantic hurricane season forth coming.

Get ready now

[TheStormExpert]

All in all a busy to very busy Atlantic hurricane season forth coming.

Get ready now

We’ve seen a signal like this before only to reverse once we pass the Spring Barrier. I’d say it’s way too soon to know what kind of hurricane season the Atlantic will have this year.

[SFLcane]

All in all a busy to very busy Atlantic hurricane season forth coming.

Get ready now

We’ve seen a signal like this before only to reverse once we pass the Spring Barrier. I’d say it’s way too soon to know what kind of hurricane season the Atlantic will have this year.

Good point but my take was on current conditions. Really depends on how the Atlantic warms.

[Kingarabian]

All in all a busy to very busy Atlantic hurricane season forth coming.

Get ready now

We’ve seen a signal like this before only to reverse once we pass the Spring Barrier. I’d say it’s way too soon to know what kind of hurricane season the Atlantic will have this year.

Actually to be honest, I don't remember anything like this recently (from my past 10 years I've been actively tracking ENSO ). To this point we've had a lot of El Nino indicators in WWB's, low pressure bias near the dateline, sinking motion over the MC and Australia, downwelling Kelvin waves, and a lot of oceanic heat content. Yet there's only a weak reflection on surface sea surface temperatures, and of course winter did not act El Nino'ish at all.
And with the model blends showing La Nina by July, it makes it even more confusing.

[CyclonicFury]

It's somewhat unusual to have a major La Niña event without a major El Niño event the preceding year. 2019-20 may not even qualify as an official El Niño. I think ENSO will likely remain in the neutral range for the next several months, with occasional spikes to around +0.5°C possible in Niño 3.4.

[stormlover2013]

yep, mostly all the pros are calling for an active year. Get ready ready gulf should be prime and ready this year.

https://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/

[Kingarabian]

On the ONI, DJF came in @ +0.5C.

Just skimming through the ONI chart, I don't think there is any year that OND/NDJ/JDF came in at +0.5C or above without ENSO being in El Nino or eventually entering one.
There are two years in 1991 and 2004 that came close, with OND/NDJ/JDF for those years reaching +0.4C. But even then, those years did not have La Nina for the summer and El Nino eventually formed later on.
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php

A month ago it seemed more likely than not that Nino 3.4 would be near +0.5C for March. I think it's less likely now. The GFS for the next 5 days shows (and is verifying) enhanced trades for much of the Pacific, east of 180. If it persists and we don't see a WWB in March, this scenario can easily promote upwelling and end the current warm regime as we head into the summer. There remains some differences between the GFS and Euro in how they handle the MJO. The GFS is favoring a setup that would promote cooling over the Pacific, and the Euro showing the opposite.

[cycloneye]

Looks more and more that it will be between cold Neutral and La Niña for ASO.

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1235574709191876611

[CyclonicFury]

Looks more and more that it will be between cold Neutral and La Niña for ASO.

https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1235574709191876611

The ECMWF showing -ENSO is very rare, I think the only time since 2012 it has done this was 2016 (and only cool neutral ENSO at that). Considering the lack of cold anomalies with depth, I don't think it's impossible the ECMWF could verify too cold this year, unlike the usual where it verifies too warm. But to see the ECMWF not showing an El Niño is very interesting and a change from recent years.

[Kingarabian]

Looks more and more that it will be between cold Neutral and La Niña for ASO.

https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1235574709191876611

I'm interested in seeing the Euro updated forecast because that would be a huge shift and change of direction from the model compared to its February forecast.

[tolakram]

Every year, before we cross what we all know is the barrier between predictions with NO SKILL and predictions with some skill, we go through this. I'm reading with great interest, but at this point I still feel like it's just a wild guess.

[Kingarabian]

Yes just seen the latest Euro seasonal. Has what appears to be a developing La Nina, with building negative SSTs over Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 during JAS. If this happens it would be a remarkable feat for the NCEP models since theyve been showing La Nina for a while now.

[crownweather]

[CyclonicFury]

When was the last time the ECMWF predicted La Niña at this range? 2010?