ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Category5Kaiju]

I would also like to point out that 1998 and 1988 were also La Nina Modoki years

[Kingarabian]

Here is a comparison of the 850mb wind anomalies 5 day average ending on April 28 2021, 2011, 2008, and 2000:
https://i.imgur.com/05qYSbh.png

La Nina forcing was much more prevalent over the dateline in those years compared to 2021. And it wasn't just the last week of April. The entire month of April for those years had above average trades blowing across the CPAC compared to 2021.
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/

Wondering if the strength of those ENSO events played a role in the persistence of the Niña forcing into the spring? 1999-2000, 2007-08 and 2010-11 were each solidly in the "strong" category (each dipped below -1.5 over the winter) while 2020-21 was more of a moderate event. Could hold little to no relevance in actuality but I was thinking about whether or not it might.

Yeah in theory the strength in those events had to have played a big role. Those events all had solidly more positive SOI's as well for MAM compared to 2021 (so far). +ENSO materialized in 2006 probably due to the lack of true La Nina forcing in the -ENSO event (2005) preceding it. Same thing almost happened with 2017, which allowed it to almost end up +ENSO, which likely only happened due to the weak preceding 2016 La Nina. Though this La Nina event is a moderate event so it's stronger than what we saw in 2005 and 2016.

[NotSparta]

The warm pool in the WPAC west of the dateline seems to have stopped cooling after the recent WWB. I'm curious to see how much of a Kelvin Wave comes out of it and if it can push things into warm neutral.



However, with the MJO leaving the region the easterlies return

[TROPICALCYCLONEALERT]

For what it’s worth (not much?), the CFS has trended cooler in the EQPAC for September over the last 10 runs.

[NotSparta]

For what it’s worth (not much?), the CFS has trended cooler in the EQPAC for September over the last 10 runs. https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/837438971646443550/image0.gif

Trending quite a bit warmer in the IPWP, can't say I'm surprised though with the cooling ENSO trend

[Kingarabian]

There's a strong likelihood that there's going to be a much warmer than average subsurface for the next 60 days.

The question is how much the suppressed phase of the MJO will negate or be an obstacle to any CPAC/EPAC surface warming during May. Another question is the big MJO WPAC event forecast by the CFS and Euro for June, and if it actually materializes at this strength.

[Kingarabian]

Doesn't look like the CFS is initializing correctly:


The CPC, BOM, and CDAS all had a much warmer Nino 3.4 during April. Because it appears to be currently initializing Nino 3.4 below -0.5C (it should at least be moving the timeline forward to the last week of April), it's bringing the average line firmly into cool-neutral. I doubt it's some serious cold bias and rather some corrupt data that NCEP should fix soon.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1388129746530275331

[Kingarabian]

CPC has Nino 3.4 down to -0.4C
BOM up to -0.15

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1389198928302780416



 https://twitter.com/JimWindweather/status/1389222706206412804



 https://twitter.com/JimWindweather/status/1389241082261688325



 https://twitter.com/JimWindweather/status/1384350793428570117

[ClarCari]

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1389198928302780416
https://twitter.com/JimWindweather/status/1389222706206412804
https://twitter.com/JimWindweather/status/1389241082261688325
https://twitter.com/JimWindweather/status/1384350793428570117

Oh goodness,
He was the twitterwtx account I was referring too in a past post. I definitely encourage him to research any correlation between the solar cycle and the ENSO because there could always be something, but currently there is nayyyy substantial evidence for a surefire link between the two.

There are not many indicators pointing towards a +ENSO for the summer and fall this year. The surface waters in the Niño regions haven’t warmed the way they need to to overcome the likely return of trade bursts come the next few months.
The subsurface warm anomalies could allow for a rather potent El Niño by spring-summer 2022 at the earliest, which is far more likely to happen after a cool-neutral than a moderate La Niña.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

A prolonged period of stronger trades is being forecast on the Euro, CFS and GFS into mid-May (with the CFS having it persist throughout the entirety of the month). Worth seeing how well these verify, as any of these scenarios would likely stymie further progression of the ongoing downwelling KW. Then the question arises in whether or not an upwelling KW may develop in its place.

[Kingarabian]

A prolonged period of stronger trades is being forecast on the Euro, CFS and GFS into mid-May (with the CFS having it persist throughout the entirety of the month). Worth seeing how well these verify, as any of these scenarios would likely stymie further progression of the ongoing downwelling KW. Then the question arises in whether or not an upwelling KW may develop in its place.
[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/839226936911331408/eps_u850_anom_hov_equatorial_2021050412.png[url]
[url]https://ncics.org/pub/mjo/v2/hov/uwnd850.cfs.eqtr.png[url]
[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/839236567158751252/image0.jpg[url]

Yeah there's going to have to be stronger than normal trades over the CPAC throughout May to stunt any warm-neutral ENSO progression. The Euro shows a very nice opportunity to switch things firmly back to -ENSO.

I might be wrong here but a pretty decent CCKW is set to pass the WPAC in about 5 days. In result, it kicks off a week long event of westerly anomalies near 150E which supports +ENSO despite the suppressed MJO phase in place.


That Euro 850mb wind setup if it persists throughout the month of May will likely kill any warm-neutral ENSO odds. It's centered nicely over the dateline and in theory would start to upwell beneath the CPAC, cutting off the new downwelling KW. But it might be overdoing the rising motion over the IO a bit, and as a result may be over doing this trade burst. The GFS 850mb wind setup past week 1, temporarily favors +ENSO if it persists long enough. The CFS shows this feature as well.

Long range, the models are in good agreement that there will be a strong WPAC MJO, which would support the +ENSO side of thing,s but it may be too late if the trades have their way throughout May.

[Kingarabian]

For what it’s worth (not much?), the CFS has trended cooler in the EQPAC for September over the last 10 runs. [url]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/837438971646443550/image0.gif[url]

SPB in full effect:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

For what it’s worth (not much?), the CFS has trended cooler in the EQPAC for September over the last 10 runs. [url]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/837438971646443550/image0.gif[url]

SPB in full effect:
https://i.imgur.com/0NW1OBy.gif

Have to be careful when analyzing CFS runs in-between months. Here's a good example, even though it is from a while back:


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/859423705335771136



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/859423781546229762



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/859423877381988352



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/859423948274053121

[Kingarabian]

For what it’s worth (not much?), the CFS has trended cooler in the EQPAC for September over the last 10 runs. [url]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/837438971646443550/image0.gif[url]

SPB in full effect:
https://i.imgur.com/0NW1OBy.gif

Have to be careful when analyzing CFS runs in-between months. Here's a good example:


[url]https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/859423705335771136[url]
[url]https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/859423781546229762[url]
[url]https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/859423877381988352[url]
[url]https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/859423948274053121[url]

Ah that explains it.

So it's probably better to only look at the Monthly CFS on the first of each month?

[aspen]

A prolonged period of stronger trades is being forecast on the Euro, CFS and GFS into mid-May (with the CFS having it persist throughout the entirety of the month). Worth seeing how well these verify, as any of these scenarios would likely stymie further progression of the ongoing downwelling KW. Then the question arises in whether or not an upwelling KW may develop in its place.
[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/839226936911331408/eps_u850_anom_hov_equatorial_2021050412.png[url]
[url]https://ncics.org/pub/mjo/v2/hov/uwnd850.cfs.eqtr.png[url]
[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/839236567158751252/image0.jpg[url]

Yeah there's going to have to be stronger than normal trades over the CPAC throughout May to stunt any warm-neutral ENSO progression. The Euro shows a very nice opportunity to switch things firmly back to -ENSO.

I might be wrong here but a pretty decent CCKW is set to pass the WPAC in about 5 days. In result, it kicks off a week long event of westerly anomalies near 150E which supports +ENSO despite the suppressed MJO phase in place.
https://i.imgur.com/gy7jlWQ.png

That Euro 850mb wind setup if it persists throughout the month of May will likely kill any warm-neutral ENSO odds. It's centered nicely over the dateline and in theory would start to upwell beneath the CPAC, cutting off the new downwelling KW. But it might be overdoing the rising motion over the IO a bit, and as a result may be over doing this trade burst. The GFS 850mb wind setup past week 1, temporarily favors +ENSO if it persists long enough. The CFS shows this feature as well.

Long range, the models are in good agreement that there will be a strong WPAC MJO, which would support the +ENSO side of thing,s but it may be too late if the trades have their way throughout May.

Does this mean a transition to El Niño is possible and perhaps more likely now?

[toad strangler]

A prolonged period of stronger trades is being forecast on the Euro, CFS and GFS into mid-May (with the CFS having it persist throughout the entirety of the month). Worth seeing how well these verify, as any of these scenarios would likely stymie further progression of the ongoing downwelling KW. Then the question arises in whether or not an upwelling KW may develop in its place.
[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/839226936911331408/eps_u850_anom_hov_equatorial_2021050412.png[url]
[url]https://ncics.org/pub/mjo/v2/hov/uwnd850.cfs.eqtr.png[url]
[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/839236567158751252/image0.jpg[url]

Yeah there's going to have to be stronger than normal trades over the CPAC throughout May to stunt any warm-neutral ENSO progression. The Euro shows a very nice opportunity to switch things firmly back to -ENSO.

I might be wrong here but a pretty decent CCKW is set to pass the WPAC in about 5 days. In result, it kicks off a week long event of westerly anomalies near 150E which supports +ENSO despite the suppressed MJO phase in place.
https://i.imgur.com/gy7jlWQ.png

That Euro 850mb wind setup if it persists throughout the month of May will likely kill any warm-neutral ENSO odds. It's centered nicely over the dateline and in theory would start to upwell beneath the CPAC, cutting off the new downwelling KW. But it might be overdoing the rising motion over the IO a bit, and as a result may be over doing this trade burst. The GFS 850mb wind setup past week 1, temporarily favors +ENSO if it persists long enough. The CFS shows this feature as well.

Long range, the models are in good agreement that there will be a strong WPAC MJO, which would support the +ENSO side of thing,s but it may be too late if the trades have their way throughout May.

Does this mean a transition to El Niño is possible and perhaps more likely now?

Looks like solid neutral ENSO to me

[Kingarabian]

A prolonged period of stronger trades is being forecast on the Euro, CFS and GFS into mid-May (with the CFS having it persist throughout the entirety of the month). Worth seeing how well these verify, as any of these scenarios would likely stymie further progression of the ongoing downwelling KW. Then the question arises in whether or not an upwelling KW may develop in its place.
[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/839226936911331408/eps_u850_anom_hov_equatorial_2021050412.png[url]
[url]https://ncics.org/pub/mjo/v2/hov/uwnd850.cfs.eqtr.png[url]

[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/839236567158751252/image0.jpg[url]

Yeah there's going to have to be stronger than normal trades over the CPAC throughout May to stunt any warm-neutral ENSO progression. The Euro shows a very nice opportunity to switch things firmly back to -ENSO.

I might be wrong here but a pretty decent CCKW is set to pass the WPAC in about 5 days. In result, it kicks off a week long event of westerly anomalies near 150E which supports +ENSO despite the suppressed MJO phase in place.
https://i.imgur.com/gy7jlWQ.png

That Euro 850mb wind setup if it persists throughout the month of May will likely kill any warm-neutral ENSO odds. It's centered nicely over the dateline and in theory would start to upwell beneath the CPAC, cutting off the new downwelling KW. But it might be overdoing the rising motion over the IO a bit, and as a result may be over doing this trade burst. The GFS 850mb wind setup past week 1, temporarily favors +ENSO if it persists long enough. The CFS shows this feature as well.

Long range, the models are in good agreement that there will be a strong WPAC MJO, which would support the +ENSO side of thing,s but it may be too late if the trades have their way throughout May.

Does this mean a transition to El Niño is possible and perhaps more likely now?

In terms of what's likely, nothing had changed IMO. We don't know yet but we'll find out in about 2-3 weeks.

[JetFuel_SE]

For what it’s worth (not much?), the CFS has trended cooler in the EQPAC for September over the last 10 runs. [url]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/837438971646443550/image0.gif[url]

SPB in full effect:
https://i.imgur.com/0NW1OBy.gif

More like CFS in full effect, it's an awful model that needs an update.