https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/865621394578526208
2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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TheStormExpert
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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AutoPenalti
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Wowzers.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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TheStormExpert
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The 12z Euro shows nothing but sinking air in the Western Caribbean 8-10 days from now. When in doubt go with the Euro!
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GFS has lost its mind I believe lol.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
gatorcane wrote:TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Where are you looking at to see Mid-Level Dry Air in this part of the Atlantic?
I use this image from Tropical Tidbits:
That is a bunch of dry air.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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AutoPenalti
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
and just when you thought it was over.
GFS does another cliff fall.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/865729980780740608
GFS does another cliff fall.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/865729980780740608
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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TheStormExpert
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Yeah wouldn't buy into the Western Caribbean TC with those kinds of performances form the GFS.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Yeah wouldn't buy into the Western Caribbean TC with those kinds of performances form the GFS.
Hard to say if the GFS is correct or not when the graph shows error margins at H50 between the 20 N & 80 N
The graph has nothing about tropical cyclogenesis.
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gatorcane
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
And the GFS now officially has another global model that has jumped on the development bandwagon though it is not a good model
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gatorcane
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12Z GFS showing development, timeframe coming in.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat May 20, 2017 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Hurricaneman
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cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/865979610206531588
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/865980289771864065
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/865981353283776512
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/865980289771864065
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/865981353283776512
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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TheStormExpert
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
We have two camps now.
GFS, GFS-Parallel, and NAVGEM: NW Caribbean development.
ECMWF: East Pacific development
GFS, GFS-Parallel, and NAVGEM: NW Caribbean development.
ECMWF: East Pacific development
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
TheStormExpert wrote:We have two camps now.
GFS, GFS-Parallel, and NAVGEM: NW Caribbean development.
ECMWF: East Pacific development
See the model scenarios for BLAS 2016. Pretty similar.
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floridasun78
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
dont want any thing nw Caribbean doing long weekend i have event to go too i think gfs got ghost issue
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Hurricaneman
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
floridasun78 wrote:dont want any thing nw Caribbean doing long weekend i have event to go too i think gfs got ghost issue
Most likely as the GFS seems to do that a lot this time of the year and seems to not be doing away with the fake storms in its upgrade
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
18z GFS continues the westwardish trend. If history is to repeat itself, it'll flip over to the EPAC within a couple of runs.
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gatorcane
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
18Z GFS simulated IR, not bad for late May, looks like the system gets trapped by a building ridge over the Gulf and Florida in the wake of the strong trough instead of ejecting NE out of the NW Carib
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TheStormExpert
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
I'm very skeptical of any sort of tropical development happening in the Western Caribbean this upcoming week. Would be nice if the GFS and Euro could agree on something for once. 
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
00z GFS has this in the GOM, and then crashes it into Mexico.
Nothing at all from the 00z Euro.
Nothing at all from the 00z Euro.
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