2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[floridasun78]

we better idea by Sunday or Monday see if models are right

[AtlanticWind]

If development were to occur this would be a good area for it to happen certainly not at the pressures the model is showing. So development here in early June is certainly not out of the question.

This is showing a mid May storm ,not early june

[cycloneye]

Someone said a few days ago the new FV3GFS may not be too laughable for other reasons but this tweet reinforces that in another front.

@BenNollWeather
The new GFS (FV3) has been more skillful than the old GFS over the past 3 months in the Northern Hemisphere.

Anomaly correlation for a 5-day forecast running a point higher ... appreciable improvement so far



 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/994227794182844416

[LarryWx]

I'm confused about the FV3's resolution as I found the following at this website: https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/fv3gfs

"Resolution: C192 (~50km), C384 (~25km), C768 (~13km)"

Can anyone here explain this? Thanks in advance.

Edit: I found this elsewhere: "a cN grid is one with N grid cells across a cubed-sphere face."

So, C apparently stands for "cubed-sphere face".

[chaser1]

I'm confused about the FV3's resolution as I found the following at this website: https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/fv3gfs

"Resolution: C192 (~50km), C384 (~25km), C768 (~13km)"

Can anyone here explain this? Thanks in advance.

Must be a dead-ringer at C-1536

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS coming in now is going with development again out through 228 hours so far. Getting difficult to ignore the consistency with this model as we now are approaching the medium to long-range. Interesting that if we do get development the mid-level trough / low the models are showing forming near Florida late this weekend / early next week might be the key as to where the cyclone would track. If the trough forms further west in the Gulf, the cyclone may move more towards the Yucatan or southern Gulf but if the trough forms over Florida or east of, the cyclone would move more north into the weakness near Florida.

[cycloneye]

IMO it will put in it the EPAC sooner or later.

12z GFS was trying hard to begin formation in EPAC at hour 168 but after this frame,it vanished and began in following frames to concentrate in SW Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Day 10 the GFS is lifting the system north into that weakness left behind over the EGOM/Florida from that mid-level trough that forms later this weekend/early next week. 500MB heights show this well below:

[NotSparta]

Looks like the GFS coming in now is going with development again out through 228 hours so far. Getting difficult to ignore the consistency with this model as we now are approaching the medium to long-range. Interesting that if we do get development the mid-level trough / low the models are showing forming near Florida late this weekend / early next week might be the key as to where the cyclone would track. If the trough forms further west in the Gulf, the cyclone may move more towards the Yucatan or southern Gulf but if the trough forms over Florida or east of, the cyclone would move more north into the weakness near Florida.

[img]https://s14.postimg.cc/47gjf0p81/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_38.png[img]

It's possible that Florida system is pulling the CAG north, more into the Atlantic, which allows for the formation of an ATL TC instead of an EPAC one

[cycloneye]

Not gonna happen says an expert.

@MJVentrice
Regarding the GFS fcst between fhr 210+ o/the Caribbean: I've seen the GFS do this a million times. It's a classic GFS false alarm. For whatever reason, the GFS likes to break this strip of low-level vorticity off of S. America in the med-range and spawn a TC. Not gonna happen.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/994258838311391232

[HurricaneEnzo]

I'm thinking this will probably end up being a TS in the Pacific if anything. The GooFuS seems like it is bad about putting the energy in the wrong place with these early season storms.

Of course you can't write it off 100% so keep an eye one it.

[wxman57]

I think this will probably end up being a TS in the Pacific if anything. The GooFuS seems like it is bad about putting the energy in the wrong place with these early season storms.

Of course you can't write it off 100% so keep an eye one it.

That is my thinking as well. It always has issues this time of year with convection increasing in the East Pac.

[chaser1]

Not gonna happen says an expert.

@MJVentrice
Regarding the GFS fcst between fhr 210+ o/the Caribbean: I've seen the GFS do this a million times. It's a classic GFS false alarm. For whatever reason, the GFS likes to break this strip of low-level vorticity off of S. America in the med-range and spawn a TC. Not gonna happen.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/994258838311391232

"1966 - Alma" NEVER Happened Either (Earliest Major Hurricane to impact the continental U.S., 2nd Earliest Hurricane on record to impact the continental U.S.)

[chaser1]

Couple "fun facts" here:
1) Following Alma's early 1966 June impact on Cuba and much of Florida, the name Alma was oddly used again only 4 years later in 1970.
2) "This" 1970 Alma developed into one of the few Atlantic Hurricanes to ever develop during the month of May (May 20)
3) The ghost of Alma lives on - name last used in the Atlantic in 1974, yet the name was never formally retired from the Atlantic basin... nor ever used again either.

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM is the only other model I see siding with the GFS but that is not a reliable model:

[TheStormExpert]

Yes this very well could end up developing in the East Pacific but what this could be telling us is that the Atlantic (especially the Western Caribbean and a Gulf) is more favorable than many are thinking. I mean why would the GFS consistently for many runs blowup a decent hurricane in the Western Caribbean/Gulf if conditions were that unfavorable?

[wxman57]

"1966 - Alma" NEVER Happened Either (Earliest Major Hurricane to impact the continental U.S., 2nd Earliest Hurricane on record to impact the continental U.S.)

Best track database has Alma striking Florida as a borderline Cat 1-2, not a major. It has Alma as a Cat 3 as it passed west of the Florida Peninsula. That said, this is most likely a phantom storm.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1966/ALMA/track.dat

[chaser1]

Fortunately, the near miss distance of 50 or so miles made a significant difference for Key West and perhaps the S.W. Florida coastline. Key West received gusts in the 60-75mph range verses the sustained 125mph that Alma peaked at in the S.E. Gulf while passing west of Key West. That storm was definitely an aberration, but also Mother Nature's way of saying "I can if I want too" lol. I wouldn't be surprised if we were to see a wet sloppy tropical storm briefly develop over the W. Caribbean before perhaps bending back west over Central America or Yucatan.

[chaser1]

Fun Poll Question: As indicated by present GFS long-term models, will the area of disturbed weather forecast to develop by May 22 -

A) Never Develop
B) Develop and remain a Pacific Tropical cyclone
C) Develop in the Atlantic but only reach Tropical Depression classification
D) Develop in the Atlantic but only reach Tropical Storm classification
E) Develop in the Atlantic as a rare pre-season Hurricane

(I haven't been burned by the GFS in months lol, i'm gonna guess "D")

[floridasun78]

let wait and see 10 days out gfs could right like other models or could be all wrong