2021 WPAC Season

[1900hurricane]

Might see if I can start posting more verification stuff after notable systems this season.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1387426956820553732

[euro6208]

Stronger for both systems in the 18z update with a potential 3rd.

[euro6208]

06z has twin developments around 300 hours.

Drops the SCS system.

End of run.

[Hayabusa]

I think after 1st week of May is to watch out for TC development, it would be also a month since Surigae formed, back at April-1-12Z was the start when the GFS started to consistently show typhoon development of then Surigae.

[euro6208]

Strongest run so far.

927 mb! and a sibling

[euro6208]

GEFS has some big signals during the time frame.

EPS has lowering pressures during the time.

[mrbagyo]

The cold wake left by Surigae is still there.

[Hayabusa]

While I think there's still a possibility of a TC this month, look at this CFS forecast by late May coming June...

[Kingarabian]

While I think there's still a possibility of a TC this month, look at this CFS forecast by late May coming June...
[url]https://i.imgur.com/e3vCgBD.gif[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/tIO0nj4.png[url]

Yeah big MJO entering the WPAC by the last week of May per the CFS and Euro.

[euro6208]

GFS still EXTREMELY bullish on activity after the first week of the month.

We may be looking at our next Category 5.

[euro6208]

Strongest run so far.

The Philippine system and the 3rd system considerably weaker with the former having ICON, NAVGEM, and JMA support.

[Hayabusa]

I need 4-6 more consistent runs to think GFS has finally locked on like it did with Surigae or if Euro joins as development is already within 10 days.

[JW-_-]

CFS was suggesting around week 3 maybe the ideal time for tc activity.

[euro6208]

Looks like the WPAC will see an explosion of activity pretty soon.

[JW-_-]

18z runs. Wait and watch atm.

[mrbagyo]

[JW-_-]

GFS 00z sticking to its current trend atm on the run.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
................................................................................................................................................................................
Other global model's 00z's were not on the same page, in week2 atm.


00z's

[euro6208]

What a devastating run for the Philippines.

[euro6208]

The deterministic GFS and several of its ensemble members spin up a tropical cyclone over the West Pacific during Week-2. However, that signal isn't present in any of our other models. Therefore, there is no associated tropical cyclone development region posted.

Within the forecast period, marine conditions will remain below
advisory criteria. After the forecast period, we could enter a
potentially volatile period. The GFS is starting to try to spin up
circulations. When they disappear one or two runs later, no big deal.
When it keeps harping on them, it usually does happen...eventually!
The timing would still be hard to pin down. So, while the GFSwave
does show 16 foot seas at Yap on the 15th of May, we`re taking that
with a grain of salt for now. We will keep watching it, we ask
mariners and other interested folks to remember, that isn`t set in
stone...it`s a model forecast. It`s possible, so are a thousand
other things. We will be able to tell you more as time goes on and
it starts to get either more or less likely.

[euro6208]

GFS with development in 144 hours.