2021 Tropical Waves Thread

[Aric Dunn]

Towers beginning to fire right over the LLC now.. typically we see large burst and deepening ( even with shear) as this happens.

[captainbarbossa19]

Quite a few of the 12Z Euro ensemble members are pretty bullish

https://i.imgur.com/w1Hu0Qr.png

Many of these tracks are very dangerous for the Caribbean Islands and the CONUS. I do not like that many members show intensification after moving past 60W.

[Category5Kaiju]

Quite a few of the 12Z Euro ensemble members are pretty bullish

https://i.imgur.com/w1Hu0Qr.png

Many of these tracks are very dangerous for the Caribbean Islands and the CONUS. I do not like that many members show intensification after moving past 60W.

Also I know it is still very early and things can very well change (and I really hope they do), but just because a potent storm that threatens areas near the MDR in June/July is historically rare does not mean it can never happen, and we sometimes simply cannot rely on history to dictate what will happen (especially when it comes down to individual storm behavior).

[ElectricStorm]

I just got a call from September, it wants its wave back

[captainbarbossa19]

Quite a few of the 12Z Euro ensemble members are pretty bullish

https://i.imgur.com/w1Hu0Qr.png

Many of these tracks are very dangerous for the Caribbean Islands and the CONUS. I do not like that many members show intensification after moving past 60W.

Also I know it is still very early and things can very well change (and I really hope they do), but just because a potent storm that threatens areas near the MDR in June/July is historically rare does not mean it can never happen, and we sometimes simply cannot rely on history to dictate what will happen (especially when it comes down to individual storm behavior).

What's really odd is that I looked at the operational Euro, and it shows the storm weakening after reaching 60W. Apparently there must be disagreement of the conditions ahead.

[AutoPenalti]

Many of these tracks are very dangerous for the Caribbean Islands and the CONUS. I do not like that many members show intensification after moving past 60W.

Also I know it is still very early and things can very well change (and I really hope they do), but just because a potent storm that threatens areas near the MDR in June/July is historically rare does not mean it can never happen, and we sometimes simply cannot rely on history to dictate what will happen (especially when it comes down to individual storm behavior).

What's really odd is that I looked at the operational Euro, and it shows the storm weakening after reaching 60W. Apparently there must be disagreement of the conditions ahead.

You are looking at the ensembles which consist of various members with different scenarios, majority of them show a weak TS through out the run which sort of matches with the operational.

[captainbarbossa19]

Towers beginning to fire right over the LLC now.. typically we see large burst and deepening ( even with shear) as this happens.


https://i.ibb.co/xzyxRnR/LABELS-19700101-000000-20.gif

At least you can clearly see the COC unlike Claudette.

[Aric Dunn]

LLC is being pulled back into the convection to the east... it has now been covered.

regardless of how long it may survive.. this could easily be upgraded to a TD

[aspen]

Also I know it is still very early and things can very well change (and I really hope they do), but just because a potent storm that threatens areas near the MDR in June/July is historically rare does not mean it can never happen, and we sometimes simply cannot rely on history to dictate what will happen (especially when it comes down to individual storm behavior).

What's really odd is that I looked at the operational Euro, and it shows the storm weakening after reaching 60W. Apparently there must be disagreement of the conditions ahead.

You are looking at the ensembles which consist of various members with different scenarios, majority of them show a weak TS through out the run which sort of matches with the operational.

We’ll have to see how long this system is able to survive, if it does form in the next few days. It could become a problem down the road if it enters the Caribbean or a favorable environment near the Greater Antilles.

[Nimbus]

If the convection is not just a diurnal maximum this has the look of diminishing shear.

[Aric Dunn]

If the convection is not just a diurnal maximum this has the look of diminishing shear.

Thats because it has not made it far enough north to be in the heavy shear. essentially from the LLC south the shear is around 10 kts.

north of that it goes from 15 kts to 20 kts pretty quick.

[Stormybajan]

Towers beginning to fire right over the LLC now.. typically we see large burst and deepening ( even with shear) as this happens.


https://i.ibb.co/xzyxRnR/LABELS-19700101-000000-20.gif

Honestly right now you wouldnt call that a 10-10 development chance wave lol. It kind of looks like a 80-80 chance of becoming a sheared TD but at the rate its moving (or not moving) im not even sure this is getting to the islands anytime soon. I expected chances to be raised atleast 40-40 at 8

[Aric Dunn]

LLC fully tucked under Expanding Convection... it is just below the shear axis and pretty much stationary all day.. Steering suggests short term motion of West.. but we know how that goes.. Still not even an Invest..

[Ivanhater]

One one suspect an invest tag coming....

[aspen]

LLC fully tucked under Expanding Convection... it is just below the shear axis and pretty much stationary all day.. Steering suggests short term motion of West.. but we know how that goes.. Still not even an Invest..

https://i.ibb.co/xCVbqPD/LABELS-19700101-000000-82.gif

At the very least, its chances for development should be raised to 30-50%.

[toad strangler]

No boredom yet this season and that's saying a ton in late June.

[abajan]

If the convection is not just a diurnal maximum this has the look of diminishing shear.

But the diurnal maximum at this latitude is actually around 5 AM. We're closer to the diurnal minimum.

[Stormybajan]

No boredom yet this season and that's saying a ton in late June.

Its going to be awkward in July when the anomalous activity ends and we get a 2 week break from the tropics everyone is going to be asking what happened

[Stormybajan]

If the convection is not just a diurnal maximum this has the look of diminishing shear.

But the diurnal maximum at this latitude is actually around 5 AM. We're closer to the diurnal minimum.

Sooo what youre saying is..chances of this developing in atleast a TD are increasing quickly if we are actually closer to the minimum stage

[DorkyMcDorkface]

In addition to a passing CCKW, it appears a rare powerful westerly wind burst in the equatorial Atlantic region associated with the current ongoing Atlantic Niño helps spur genesis on the models. These are depicted as raw westerlies mind you, so background vorticity will definitely be enhanced to help spin this thing up even at such a low latitude.