Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)

[Zonacane]

I'd say there is a good chance we are looking at major #3

[captainbarbossa19]

Not good. Euro shows strong ridging building on top of the system.

[Category5Kaiju]

Nearly six full pages on a wave that's not even an invest yet...this oughta be good.

Wasn't the last time this happened oh, almost exactly six years ago?

With Jose already forming, we're actually already ahead of that season on NS count and MH count (only Harvey had reached AOA 100kt by this date).

El who?

If I traveled back in time to early August 2022 and told S2K that this year was going to be a very slow year with an August shutdown and only 95 ACE despite a La Nina, while the next year would be a moderate-to-strong El Nino that features 6 named storms in August and a long-track, powerful Cape Verde system in September...I think I would have been banned from this forum for eternity

[chris_fit]

This is South and East and Stronger vs 00Z Run

[Teban54]

Nearly six full pages on a wave that's not even an invest yet...this oughta be good.

Wasn't the last time this happened oh, almost exactly six years ago?

Actually, it might have been Idalia.

With Jose already forming, we're actually already ahead of that season on NS count and MH count (only Harvey had reached AOA 100kt by this date).

El who?

For a brief period, we were also tied with 2017 in hurricane count, between the date of Idalia becoming a hurricane (August 29) and Irma becoming one (August 31).

[mantis83]

i see an escape hatch on euro so far....but looking more dangerous than last run

[captainbarbossa19]

i see an escape hatch on euro so far....but looking more dangerous than last run

Escape hatch is closing. Strongest winds are to the east of the trough over Newfoundland which means that it is more likely to fill.

[Meteorcane]

Yeah should be able to round the periphery of the oceanic ridge with this run and go OTS... but considering we are talking the 7+ day range, certainly still has my attention since the overall synoptic pattern is probably low-predictability given the number of cyclones interacting in the Central Atlantic.

[chris_fit]

About a full degree S of the 00z Run

[SFLcane]

Wait is the 936mb! what on earth dam

[SFLcane]

wow!

[Teban54]

Seeing 935 mb on the operational Euro for a system that has not formed yet is very ominous.

Edit: Holy crap, I first read it as 955. Imagine how @##%@%# I felt when I saw it was actually 935!

969 to 935 in the last 24 hours. Wow.

[captainbarbossa19]

wow!

https://i.postimg.cc/c4PQybdY/ghghghg.png

Looks like it missed the trough and is turning back west.

[SFLcane]

maybe some cat 7's on the eps

[chris_fit]

Wait is the 936mb! what on earth dam

Technically weaker than the 00z (934mb)

[zzzh]

Ridge is weakening at 240h on Euro. Again, it's too far out.

[chris_fit]

Last Frame - 925mb lol

[cycloneye]

Seeing 935 mb on the operational Euro for a system that has not formed yet is very ominous.
https://i.postimg.cc/NjbXvd6j/ec-fast-mslp-uv850-atl-11.png
Edit: Holy crap, I first read it as 955. Imagine how @##%@%# I felt when I saw it was actually 935!

969 to 935 in the last 24 hours. Wow.

Not even a invest.

[chris_fit]

[Meteorcane]

So in 10 days, solutions range from Cat 5 hurricane at 23.5N or open wave at 14N... seems like a high confidence forecast!