2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[kevin]

Is 300 ACE even physically possible for the Atlantic? It would probably require a 2005/17 mash-up in terms of overall storm frequency and MDR activity, but I don’t think a season that favorable is possible. Plus, upwelling would become quite an issue after a while.

I think it's **possible** just extremely unlikely. Just have to imagine a season with 2023 levels of warmth, with a 2005 style front half and a 2020 style back half.

I think you'd need a 2005-style early season (June-August), 2017-style MDR season (September) and 2020-style late season (October-November) for that. 2005's MDR season was notably lackluster when compared to similar seasons (only a single Cat 1 Philippe within MDR east of 60W), and its September ACE was mostly helped by the Gulf (Rita) and the subtropics (C3 Maria, C1 Nate, C1 Ophelia).

Such a hypothetical season might actually not be completely detached from reality. The early season (2005-like) is mostly focused on Caribbean and Gulf, allowing the MDR to continue warming up. September (2017-like) instead has the bulk of its activity in the MDR proper, which has been largely untouched, while also allowing the Caribbean time to rebound as storms recurve. (The same is largely true for 2005 and 2020.) Finally, in late season (2020-like), the Caribbean explodes again after getting a break in September. This would address a lot of the upwelling problems that aspen mentioned.

Of course, this is still very, very unlikely to happen.

Using the numbers from those seasons you'd get this.

2005 ACE (June-August) = 102.5
2017 ACE (September) = 172.5
2020 ACE (October-November) = 73.0
Total ACE = 348

Edit:
This theoretical season would have the following additional statistics
NS: 24
H: 16
MH: 12
C5: 4

[JetFuel_SE]

I think it's **possible** just extremely unlikely. Just have to imagine a season with 2023 levels of warmth, with a 2005 style front half and a 2020 style back half.

I think you'd need a 2005-style early season (June-August), 2017-style MDR season (September) and 2020-style late season (October-November) for that. 2005's MDR season was notably lackluster when compared to similar seasons (only a single Cat 1 Philippe within MDR east of 60W), and its September ACE was mostly helped by the Gulf (Rita) and the subtropics (C3 Maria, C1 Nate, C1 Ophelia).

Such a hypothetical season might actually not be completely detached from reality. The early season (2005-like) is mostly focused on Caribbean and Gulf, allowing the MDR to continue warming up. September (2017-like) instead has the bulk of its activity in the MDR proper, which has been largely untouched, while also allowing the Caribbean time to rebound as storms recurve. (The same is largely true for 2005 and 2020.) Finally, in late season (2020-like), the Caribbean explodes again after getting a break in September. This would address a lot of the upwelling problems that aspen mentioned.

Of course, this is still very, very unlikely to happen.

Using the numbers from those seasons you'd get this.

2005 ACE (June-August) = 102.5
2017 ACE (September) = 172.5
2020 ACE (October-November) = 73.0
Total ACE = 348

Crazy how 2017 had hyperactive ACE in just September.

[cycloneye]

Will this be the most over-hyped season ever? I get the indicators are all pointing hyperactive but the spring barrier looms large, as it does every year.

Agree 100%. The SB will be very important to watch at that period to see how things are evolving.

[zzzh]

Fun fact: Jan Atlantic SSTa have a higher correlation with seasonal ace than Feb/Mar/Apr/May.

[cycloneye]

Well, at least the 2024 season will not break record of the earliest formation on record as it was on January 3, 1938. The 2023 Unnamed Subtropical Storm formed on January 16. Can I say it? Season canceled.
From Wikipedia:

Seasonal activity began with the formation of a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic on January 3, the earliest occurrence in a calendar year (earliest start to a season) on record.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Atla ... ane_season

[ChrisH-UK]

:uarrow: Fun fact: Jan Atlantic SSTa have a higher correlation with seasonal ace than Feb/Mar/Apr/May.

In that case were buggered, Highest ever SST in January maybe an ACE of 300 might be true.

[tolakram]

Do we believe that we can accurately predict the most active season ever? So far that effort has failed in a pretty big way. No way to answer this question of course, just food for thought.

[SFLcane]

I don't think anyone at this lead time is predicting the busiest season ever which i might add is a very subjective term. We can have 30 named storms if they all stay out to sea nobody cares. Right now just based on early climate model predictions enso, sst's etc a very busy season near or over 200+ ace is likely if the Atlantic stays this warm with a neutral or la nina conditions around come ASO. Surely there are many other factors that matter when forecasting tropical cyclones but the early signs point to a busy one ahead the million dollar question will be FOR WHO? We will know more in May/June. Stay Tuned!

[cycloneye]

I don't think anyone at this lead time is predicting the busiest season ever which i might add is a very subjective term. We can have 30 named storms if they all stay out to sea nobody cares. Right now just based on early climate model predictions enso, sst's etc a very busy season near or over 200+ ace is likely if the Atlantic stays this warm with a neutral or la nina conditions around come ASO. Surely there are many other factors that matter when forecasting tropical cyclones but the early signs point to a busy one ahead the million dollar question will be FOR WHO? We will know more in May/June. Stay Tuned!

Important to mention among the factors is the +AMO that was present in 2023 and continues in January 2024.

[SFLcane]

I don't think anyone at this lead time is predicting the busiest season ever which i might add is a very subjective term. We can have 30 named storms if they all stay out to sea nobody cares. Right now just based on early climate model predictions enso, sst's etc a very busy season near or over 200+ ace is likely if the Atlantic stays this warm with a neutral or la nina conditions around come ASO. Surely there are many other factors that matter when forecasting tropical cyclones but the early signs point to a busy one ahead the million dollar question will be FOR WHO? We will know more in May/June. Stay Tuned!

Important to mention among the factors is the +AMO that was present in 2023 and continues in January 2024.

Indeed!

[mixedDanilo.E]

fyi.. the problem is the 300 ace honestly was not a really a joke the way i see it the potential we are seeing on these climate models is very worrisome for this season. Hope things change

Is 300 ACE even physically possible for the Atlantic? It would probably require a 2005/17 mash-up in terms of overall storm frequency and MDR activity, but I don’t think a season that favorable is possible. Plus, upwelling would become quite an issue after a while.

I think it's possible but the Atlantic would have to be record warm (as warm or warmer than last year which we're on track to doing), and it has to be hyperactive throughout the whole season pretty much. And we'll definitely need the help from the MDR unlike 05 in which most of the worst storms formed west of 60W.

[Category5Kaiju]

Do we believe that we can accurately predict the most active season ever? So far that effort has failed in a pretty big way. No way to answer this question of course, just food for thought.

As far as we can tell, we could have a 20/10/6 season that produces 160 ACE. Or 200 ACE. Or 250 ACE. Or 300 ACE. Or we could have a 34/16/8 season that produces 160 ACE. Or 200 ACE. Or 250 ACE. Or 300 ACE. Exactly how busy this season will be is certainly unknown at this point in time, but what we do know is that there are more than one signs that point toward a potentially busy season.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1748349838079488159




2010 went on to have the warmest mdr on record at the time.

[weeniepatrol]

Well, at least the 2024 season will not break record of the earliest formation on record as it was on January 3, 1938. The 2023 Unnamed Subtropical Storm formed on January 16. Can I say it? Season canceled.
From Wikipedia:

Seasonal activity began with the formation of a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic on January 3, the earliest occurrence in a calendar year (earliest start to a season) on record.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Atla ... ane_season

You know what season also didn’t have January activity? Thats right ,,, 2013!!!

2013 confirmed!!!

[weeniepatrol]

Do we believe that we can accurately predict the most active season ever? So far that effort has failed in a pretty big way. No way to answer this question of course, just food for thought.

Even the noaa and csu seasonals in AUGUST were too low in 2005. I doubt it

[tolakram]

Do we believe that we can accurately predict the most active season ever? So far that effort has failed in a pretty big way. No way to answer this question of course, just food for thought.

Even the noaa and csu seasonals in AUGUST were too low in 2005. I doubt it

I was thinking more of 2006:

CSU May 31, 2006 17 9 5

or that one other season I always get upset about when people mention it.

CSU June 3, 2013 18 9 4

[CyclonicFury]

Do we believe that we can accurately predict the most active season ever? So far that effort has failed in a pretty big way. No way to answer this question of course, just food for thought.

Even the noaa and csu seasonals in AUGUST were too low in 2005. I doubt it

I was thinking more of 2006:

CSU May 31, 2006 17 9 5

or that one other season I always get upset about when people mention it.

CSU June 3, 2013 18 9 4

On the flip side, 2010 and 2020 both had very high forecasts and both seasons ended up hyperactive, even though 2010's ACE was slightly lower than expected and 2020's raw numbers were significantly higher than expected. There have been some hurricane seasons expected to be very active that verified as such, though to what extent is hard to forecast.

[SFLcane]

Seasonal forecast have come a long way and have improved greatly in recent years let alone 2006, 2013. I have great respect for Philp k and his work IF the Atlantic warming holds with a la nina by peak of hurricane season i have no doupt Philp's April forecast could be record high with good reason. As mentioned if its record busy who exactly will it be for Nemo or the Conus we shall see.

[NotSparta]

Seasonal forecast have come a long way and have improved greatly in recent years let alone 2006, 2013. I have great respect for Philp k and his work IF the Atlantic warming holds with a la nina by peak of hurricane season i have no doupt Philp's April forecast could be record high with good reason. As mentioned if its record busy who exactly will it be for Nemo or the Conus we shall see.

They have improved, yes, but that doesn't mean they are perfect. 2022 wasn't that long ago

[Steve]

Do we believe that we can accurately predict the most active season ever? So far that effort has failed in a pretty big way. No way to answer this question of course, just food for thought.

Maybe not accurately? I’ve been reading them since Colorado State would mail them every year. Constant tweaks and new methodologies along with new experts studying relevant factors has us where we generally have a good idea of what’s going to happen, especially once we get to the start of the season. Some years we discover enhancing and inhibiting factors like dry mid level air, wave break patterns, x or y index being found relevant, global rainfall patterns and such. I doubt they’ll ever be able to simulate an entire season though they are trying. Probably within a few years, AI will get us close.