Wilma Recon Reports

bigmoney755 · #1381 Postby **bigmoney755** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:45 am

its moving over the everglades...it wont weaken much at all. I believe it was katrina that moved over the everglades and it kept almost all its strength

mtm4319 · #1382 Postby **mtm4319** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:46 am

164
SXXX50 KNHC 241045
AF302 2524A WILMA HDOB 32 KNHC
1034 2456N 08059W 03046 5132 235 103 078 078 106 02924 0000000100
1034. 2455N 08058W 03047 5126 236 104 094 094 105 02931 0000000000
1035 2453N 08057W 03048 5119 236 101 088 088 102 02939 0000000000
1035. 2452N 08056W 03049 5112 236 103 088 088 103 02947 0000000000
1036 2451N 08055W 03047 5107 236 099 088 088 100 02950 0000000000
1036. 2449N 08053W 03048 5102 238 100 090 090 101 02956 0000000000
1037 2448N 08052W 03048 5097 236 099 078 078 099 02961 0000000000
1037. 2447N 08051W 03049 5091 232 100 078 078 100 02967 0000000000
1038 2446N 08050W 03047 5087 231 101 072 072 101 02970 0000000000
1038. 2444N 08049W 03052 5085 233 100 088 088 100 02977 0000000000
1039 2444N 08046W 03046 5080 233 099 100 100 100 02975 0000000000
1039. 2446N 08045W 03048 5084 230 099 104 104 099 02974 0000000000
1040 2449N 08044W 03047 5090 227 102 100 100 103 02967 0000000000
1040. 2451N 08042W 03050 5090 224 103 098 098 103 02969 0000000000
1041 2452N 08040W 03047 5092 221 103 092 092 103 02964 0000000000
1041. 2454N 08037W 03048 5093 219 102 096 096 103 02965 0000000000
1042 2456N 08035W 03048 5095 220 105 100 100 107 02962 0000000000
1042. 2457N 08033W 03047 5096 219 106 090 090 107 02960 0000000000
1043 2459N 08031W 03048 5093 219 104 106 086 105 02964 0000000000
1043. 2501N 08028W 03048 5094 217 102 102 090 103 02964 0000000000
Going SE, then NE.

bigmoney755 · #1383 Postby **bigmoney755** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:54 am

REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

120?!?!? WHAT??????

Scorpion · #1384 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:56 am

bigmoney755 wrote:REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

120?!?!? WHAT??????

It made landfall.

mtm4319 · #1385 Postby **mtm4319** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 5:56 am

719
SXXX50 KNHC 241055
AF302 2524A WILMA HDOB 33 KNHC
1044 2502N 08026W 03048 5093 215 102 096 096 102 02965 0000000000
1044. 2504N 08024W 03047 5090 213 104 092 092 105 02966 0000000000
1045 2506N 08022W 03049 5089 211 103 096 092 103 02969 0000000000
1045. 2507N 08020W 03049 5091 212 103 090 090 104 02968 0000000000
1046 2509N 08017W 03051 5092 211 102 080 080 103 02968 0000000000
1046. 2510N 08015W 03043 5094 211 106 088 088 108 02958 0000000000
1047 2512N 08013W 03050 5090 208 106 108 058 106 02969 0000000000
1047. 2514N 08011W 03047 5089 207 104 112 046 106 02967 0000000000
1048 2515N 08009W 03049 5089 208 102 116 042 103 02970 0000000000
1048. 2517N 08006W 03049 5087 206 101 114 050 102 02971 0000000000
1049 2519N 08004W 03048 5086 204 101 112 046 102 02972 0000000000
1049. 2520N 08002W 03046 5087 205 101 110 056 101 02969 0000000000
1050 2522N 08000W 03051 5083 206 100 106 064 100 02977 0000000000
1050. 2523N 07958W 03045 5078 204 094 098 080 096 02977 0000000000
1051 2525N 07956W 03052 5079 204 093 102 084 094 02983 0000000000
1051. 2527N 07956W 03050 5082 202 093 110 076 094 02977 0000000000
1052 2530N 07956W 03048 5085 197 088 104 082 090 02973 0000000000
1052. 2532N 07956W 03048 5088 192 094 100 088 096 02970 0000000000
1053 2535N 07956W 03048 5091 195 096 104 082 097 02966 0000000000
1053. 2537N 07956W 03047 5094 196 097 108 070 098 02963 0000000000

bigmoney755 · #1386 Postby **bigmoney755** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:00 am

Scorpion wrote:
bigmoney755 wrote:REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

120?!?!? WHAT??????

It made landfall.

we just got winds to support UPGRADING it to 130mph...at 6:30 they said it made landfall with winds 125mph...30 minutes later they said it weakened 5mph when in reality it has 130mph winds. Unreal.

Scorpion · #1387 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:02 am

bigmoney755 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:
bigmoney755 wrote:REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

120?!?!? WHAT??????

It made landfall.

we just got winds to support UPGRADING it to 130mph...at 6:30 they said it made landfall with winds 125mph...30 minutes later they said it weakened 5mph when in reality it has 130mph winds. Unreal.

Oh, that is very odd. Whats up with that?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #1388 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:03 am

With that 126 knots they will likely go back later this year in up it to 130 mph for landfall...

mtm4319 · #1389 Postby **mtm4319** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:09 am

bigmoney755 wrote:REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

120?!?!? WHAT??????

The position is right here:

They likely assumed it weakened just a little bit, but IMO it should have been 125 mph still considering (a) it just made landfall, and (b) the 126-knot report.

#1390 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:18 am

265
URNT12 KNHC 241034
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/10:14:30Z
B. 25 deg 48 min N
081 deg 46 min W
C. 700 mb 2669 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 182 deg 086 kt
G. 103 deg 025 nm
H. 951 mb
I. 13 C/ 3049 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 2524A WILMA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 122 KT SE QUAD 09:59:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C, 98 / 22NM

bigmoney755 · #1391 Postby **bigmoney755** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:19 am

that vortex is old...they found winds of 126kts at flight level...130mph. NHC does not want to make them look any worse.

mtm4319 · #1392 Postby **mtm4319** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:19 am

I think they're done investigating.

cycloneye wrote:265
URNT12 KNHC 241034
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/10:14:30Z
B. 25 deg 48 min N
081 deg 46 min W
C. 700 mb 2669 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 182 deg 086 kt
G. 103 deg 025 nm
H. 951 mb
I. 13 C/ 3049 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 2524A WILMA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 122 KT SE QUAD 09:59:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C, 98 / 22NM

Already posted.

mtm4319 wrote:265
URNT12 KNHC 241034
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/10:14:30Z

superfly · #1393 Postby **superfly** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:20 am

It doesn't say extrapolated pressure so did they drop a dropsonde on land? :slime:

#1394 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:21 am

Ok I didn't see it but yes they are going to base.

mtm4319 · #1395 Postby **mtm4319** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:21 am

superfly wrote:It doesn't say extrapolated pressure so did they drop a dropsonde on land?

It was just offshore at that point. What is a dropsonde made of though?

Derek Ortt · #1396 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:23 am

ok bigmoney

can we please sop with the monday morning quarterbacking already?

Thunder44 · #1397 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:28 am

bigmoney755 wrote:that vortex is old...they found winds of 126kts at flight level...130mph. NHC does not want to make them look any worse.

At this point it's really moot. A 5mph difference is not much worse. They can upgrade in a post-analysis.

#1398 Postby **WxGuy1** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 7:27 am

bigmoney755 wrote:that vortex is old...they found winds of 126kts at flight level...130mph. NHC does not want to make them look any worse.

Let's wait to see if any obs or damage support that. The problem is that the standard reduction rule from Flight-level to surface is not always valid, so they may have felt that the reduction was more like 15% instead of 10%. I haven't seen any obs above 90mph sustained winds. Some 100-110mph gusts, but gusts are not sustained. Not saying there weren't cat 3 winds in this, but before you criticize the NHC, you better make sure the sub-90% reduction they used with Wilma wasn't valid in this case.

quandary · #1399 Postby **quandary** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 9:28 am

Will they start recon again this afternoon when Wilma gets off the coast?

Website · #1400 Postby **Brent** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 9:40 am

quandary wrote:Will they start recon again this afternoon when Wilma gets off the coast?

There is a fix scheduled for 2pm. Plane should leave at 11:50am EDT.

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