2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS very bullish in long-range but timeframe has moved out so seems suspect, eventually intensifies further and moves north then NE in the Gulf:

[tarheelprogrammer]

06Z GFS very bullish in long-range but timeframe has moved out so seems suspect, eventually intensifies further and moves north then NE in the Gulf:

https://s9.postimg.org/ciwb32wfz/gfs_ms ... atl_40.png

Near major strike on Florida in early June. GFS has to be crazy. That has never happened correct?

[weatherwindow]

06Z GFS very bullish in long-range but timeframe has moved out so seems suspect, eventually intensifies further and moves north then NE in the Gulf:

https://s9.postimg.org/ciwb32wfz/gfs_ms ... atl_40.png

Near major strike on Florida in early June. GFS has to be crazy. That has never happened correct?

I

1886....2 strong Cat 2s into the Panhandle and Big Bend areas respectively in the third and fourth weeks of June are the closest to that time frame .........Rich

[wxman57]

The 1886 season featured quite a few U.S. hurricane hits, including 2 hits on the eastern Florida panhandle within a week the 4th week of June. Analog seasons strongly support development in the western Caribbean with a NNE track toward Florida. However, the GFS does odd things like this every season in mid-late May, so I'm not inclined to believe it. Certainly, we'll need to keep an eye on the western Caribbean over the next couple of weeks, though.

[Alyono]

time frame not pushed back at all

[psyclone]

I recall referencing 1886 last year in the lead up to Hermine when someone stated hurricanes don't hit the big bend (and put up a map of hits since 1950)....they don't...except when they do. While we definitely don't want a hurricane, the more common early season weak storm could provide needed rainfall to Florida and parts of the southeast...so in that regard I'm hopeful we'll get something even if it's just a big moisture surge to jump start reliable Summer convection.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has nothing as any low that tries to form buries in Central America so it looks like past runs had big convective feedback that is a tradition for May from the model.

[Alyono]

new MU buries it over CA

[Alyono]

12z GFS has nothing as any low buries in Central America so it looks like past runs had big convective feedback that is a tradition for May from the model.

Convective feedback is far too overused here. The difference between the two runs is not convective feedback. It has to do with the track being over land vs remaining just offshore

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake says it all with the big red X.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/866303488841723904

[wxman57]

GFS had been verifying terribly over the past week. Here's a tweeted comparison between the GFS & the Euro (Ryan Maue). I'd tend to believe the 12Z GFS over the 06Z version. That is, no hurricane in the Gulf in 10 days.

[AutoPenalti]

What's up with GFS? Geez.

[tarheelprogrammer]

What's up with GFS? Geez.

It seems even the CMC is picking up on things better.

[TheAustinMan]

It seems even the CMC is picking up on things better.

Well, if we were to go by the CMC, we would have a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific in about 2 hours and a tropical storm in about 8. I am a bit skeptical of that

[Kingarabian]

GFS now has development on the EPAC side.

[TheStormExpert]

It's going to be a LONG season if the GFS keeps this up!

[TheStormExpert]

GFS now has development on the EPAC side.

Yeah 16 days from now.

[Kingarabian]

GFS now has development on the EPAC side.

Yeah and I doubt it'll show anything in the GOM anymore. More in line with the Euro of generally no development on either side for now, with development in the Epac later on.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It seems even the CMC is picking up on things better.

Well, if we were to go by the CMC, we would have a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific in about 2 hours and a tropical storm in about 8. I am a bit skeptical of that

LOL still better than the near major hurricane in early June for Florida. Either way the GFS has slipped some in recent years. Even as a novice I can see that.

[wxman57]

Updated GFS skill score vs. EC from Ryan Maue. I'd be careful trusting the GFS...