Area in the Bahamas: Is Invest 98L

[GCANE]

Looking at Vis, I estimate the surface center at the X.
Good flow of high TPW air over north Andros that could entrain into this.
Looking for some convection to startup to get the whole engine started.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at Vis, I estimate the surface center at the X.
Good flow of high TPW air over north Andros that could entrain into this.
Looking for some convection to startup to get the whole engine started.


https://i.imgur.com/Vt9ZMVh.png

Watch the vort over north andros. It can take over if convection keep going with it

[GCANE]

Some Cumulus starting to form in the circled area.

[GCANE]

Looking at Vis, I estimate the surface center at the X.
Good flow of high TPW air over north Andros that could entrain into this.
Looking for some convection to startup to get the whole engine started.


https://i.imgur.com/Vt9ZMVh.png

Watch the vort over north andros.

Yup - see it, thanks

[OuterBanker]

Looks like the GFS splits the system. Part of it enters the eastern Gulf, where development appears quite unlikely. The other part tracks NNW up the coast to the Outer Banks of NC then accelerates out to sea as per Chantal. That's when it will have the best shot at developing - as it's heading out to sea next Tue-Thu. I don't see much happening until then.

Looks like the most likely scenario.
Has the MDR moved north of 35?

[GCANE]

ULL just north of Grand Bahama.
Good position to enhance venting if something starts SW of Andros.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I agree with NDG Gcane and Aric on the vorticity and broad weak surface circ. The battle seems to be with dry air and whether or not low level moisture can be pulled from the NW GOM and moisten up the immediate envelope and allow some sustained convention to hold and strengthen the circulation. It seems right on the edge of this and I don't see that models (ever) have been able to pick this kind of thing out close to home. Seems like today is do or die for this area of interest.
https://imgur.com/a/Y5jMUq2

[NDG]

There's a nice eddy over Andros right now rotating around the broader circulation to the south.

[cycloneye]

The mission for Friday that was on Wednesdays TCPOD was postponed to Saturday afternoon if needed.

NOUS42 KNHC 221515
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT THU 22 AUGUST 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-086

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL
INVEST OFF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST NEAR
28.0N 80.0W FOR 24/1800Z.

[Aric Dunn]

What i see happening is this vort is going to rotate west then sw as usual and when it bottoms out it should gain the rotational energy/vorticity. And if convection is still firing with it then off we go.

[Aric Dunn]

You dont get a much better thumb ridge than that lol..

That should keep it chugging west. Especially if it maintains convection
Probably why most of the models move this into the eastern gulf.. including the 12z gfs

[GCANE]

Looks like all vorts are starting to stack SW of Andros and an anticyclone has formed over them.
Any convection could get this going pretty fast.

[NDG]

[GCANE]

Convective debris is starting to drift into this area.
Chances looking better we could see a spin up late in the day.

[Aric Dunn]

12z gfs is looking more reasonable finally given the setup. Very small window for out to sea track east of florida. Euro has been right on the fence.. now we wait to see if the euro finally follows.

Gfs also really does not split the system. Little pices comes off but otherwiseit stays symmetrical.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the models they seem insistent that this will possibly become 2 systems

[GCANE]

The anti-cyclone will really drive this once convection fires off
The position of the ULL north of Grand Bahama is what is driving this.

[northjaxpro]

Convection should start to fire by late afternoon and that will get the engine to begin to rev up. Late afternoon diurnally induced land convection from Cuba will also help to moisten the environment near the broad circulation. The blowoff from the convection from late today will help in that process.

Also, the latest 700-850 mb steering analysis further increases my belief I posted earlier this morning on this thread that this AOI will traverse through the Florida Straits and reach the SE GOM later this weekend.

[NDG]

I think the best chances it has for development is if it develops east of FL instead of the eastern GOM, it will have better UL divergence to work with east of the UL trough that will sit over FL between the two areas of UL ridges, one over the central GOM and the other one over the northern Bahamas/east of FL.

[northjaxpro]

I think the best chances it has for development is if it develops east of FL instead of the eastern GOM, it will have better UL divergence to work with east of the UL trough that will sit over FL between the two areas of UL ridges, one over the central GOM and the other one over the northern Bahamas/east of FL.

That's true reasoning,, but unless it organizes quicker and gets stronger than anticipated during the next 24-36 hours or so, I do not see this (the potential LLC that is) moving east of Florida initially. The low level steering flow will keep this system moving w/nw well into the weekend to the GOM.