2021 WPAC Season

[JW-_-]

00z @ 9 days lead. Nada.

[euro6208]

GFS is all over the place. The monster typhoon delayed but has a potent storm for the P.I and Southeast Asia.

[JW-_-]

]Updated 2h 2m ago (ref 18Z)

V's


Updated 5h ago (ref 12Z)

[euro6208]

EURO now on board with GFS.

GFS bottoms it out at 935 mb.

[JW-_-]

Deterministic runs.








12z's EC /GEM /ACCESS


...............................................................................................
EC ens.

[Hayabusa]

The GFS solutions are not consistent which one it would develop, while both is possible but they have to be far apart enough to not interfere each other (e.g. Goni, Atsani, although Atsani's intense forecast didn't materialize).

[JW-_-]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/aceforecast/gfs.php

Don't buy the GFS myself but it does think threats atm. Would like to see a lot more of a consensus across most globals @ the date it sees before diving in.




ec @15th. Broad low-pressure areas.

[euro6208]

The experts at TSR will be releasing the first forecast for the year sometime early this month. Will be interesting with all factors involved.

[JW-_-]

http://access-s.clide.cloud/files/tropi ... w_pacific/

Access strike probs for each week.

[JW-_-]

Updated 59m ago (ref 00Z)





Leave it here for me. will look back in mid-week 3.

.................................................................................................................................................
Updated 47m ago (ref 00Z)




Added .

[euro6208]

GFS suddenly drops the Philippine system.

EURO picks it up first time as a 1009 mb system passing over the P.I.

[euro6208]

Well well well...

Development has been pushed back a little bit while EURO drops.

[euro6208]

Weakest run so far from the GFS, 18z.

It has 4 competing lows with none of them organizing that much.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

In the west, satellite imagery shows an active pattern of trade-wind
convergence, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from just
west of Chuuk westward across Yap and approaching Koror. A near-
equatorial trough is also present south of Palau as far east as
140E, serving to increase the convergence north of the trough axis.
The GFS and ECMWF treat this setup differently, with the GFS
developing a monsoon trough extending out toward Chuuk, while the
ECMWF sends out a burst of westerlies along the equator that gets as
far east as Chuuk Sunday and Monday before breaking down. But in
spite of the differences in patterns, both models produce active
weather for Koror, Yap and Chuuk. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are forecast through Monday for Koror and through
Sunday night at Yap, with numerous showers for Yap Sunday and Sunday
night. At Chuuk, increasing trade-wind convergence will bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms for tonight through Wednesday,
with numerous showers Sunday night and Monday as westerlies help to
increase convergence. As in the east, rainfall could be heavy, with
5-day totals of 4 to 5 inches from the GFS and 2 to 4 inches from
the ECMWF.

[1900hurricane]

Unlike with what ended up being Surigae, I'm not feeling too high on the potential TCs the GFS keeps depicting. Think the IO will hog a lot of the beneficial VP for most of the next two weeks. Might see something more towards the latter portions of May though.

[euro6208]

Good old consistent GFS.

Has a significant TC impacting the Philippines midweek with development around 66 hours. Bottoms it out at 950's in the SCS.

[euro6208]

96W

Now an invest.

[Kingarabian]

Models might be playing catch up here... Very potent CCKW over the WPAC:

[euro6208]

GFS continues showing multiple systems in the second half of the month.