2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[IcyTundra]

Trough moves across Atlantic Canada and the northern part of New England at hour 216 allowing it to gain some latitude but at hour 240 it looks like another ridge builds in over the Northeast which would force it further west.

[Iceresistance]

Doesn't this look similar to Jose in 2017?

[SFLcane]

Holy Euro!

[Category5Kaiju]

Trough moves across Atlantic Canada and the northern part of New England at hour 216 allowing it to gain some latitude but at hour 240 it looks like another ridge builds in over the Northeast which would force it further west.

Like Frances

[IcyTundra]

CMC shows development also but keeps it weak so it is able to stay very far to the south near 11 N at the end of the run. Same general idea as the Euro with strong ridging across the Atlantic allowing whatever develops to track W/WNW towards the Carribean. If it stays weaker early it could have a higher chance of getting further west and developing in the Carribean closer to land. Neither the Euro or CMC solution would be good, but this is still several days out so there is plenty of time for things to change.

[toad strangler]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.imgur.com/lj7yyZk.gif

[Stormybajan]

CMC shows development also but keeps it weak so it is able to stay very far to the south near 11 N at the end of the run. Same general idea as the Euro with strong ridging across the Atlantic allowing whatever develops to track W/WNW towards the Carribean. If it stays weaker early it could have a higher chance of getting further west and developing in the Carribean closer to land. Neither the Euro or CMC solution would be good, but this is still several days out so there is plenty of time for things to change.

I'm thinking overtime the euro will get weaker to minimal hurricane status while cmc overtime will eventually gain a bit more latitude with time and get stronger with each run

[caneseddy]

I’m not liking that Euro setup….

[SFLcane]

[LarryWx]

There's strong 12Z EPS support for the 12Z Euro storm, which is in green. Let's see what % recurve safely:

[LarryWx]

Here's the progression of the 12Z EPS from the above post's day 10 to both day 12 and day 15: this about as strong support as there can be for one particular storm this far out from one run of the EPS

Day 12:


Day 15:

[Iceresistance]

There's strong 12Z EPS support for the 12Z Euro storm, which is in green. Let's see what % recurve safely:

https://i.imgur.com/74Ke1Qy.png

What's the link for that site?

[LarryWx]

There's strong 12Z EPS support for the 12Z Euro storm, which is in green. Let's see what % recurve safely:

https://i.imgur.com/74Ke1Qy.png

What's the link for that site?

There is none I can give because it isn't free.

[Iceresistance]

There's strong 12Z EPS support for the 12Z Euro storm, which is in green. Let's see what % recurve safely:

https://i.imgur.com/74Ke1Qy.png

What's the link for that site?

There is none to give because it isn't free.

Oh, that makes more sense now . . .

[SFLcane]

Omg!

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1436414902776696834

[SFLcane]

And again!

[LarryWx]

And again!

https://i.postimg.cc/Fsf253HN/F50-EAE6-F-11-B0-41-DD-B33-E-5023-E03-B4-E2-C.png

Whereas there are many of those in the process of a safe recurve, there are a decent number of those on the left side that already either hit the NE Caribbean and/or would be potential threats to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and possibly even the US E coast in some cases within a few days later:

[Shell Mound]

Omg!

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1436414902776696834

Even with ridging building in, most of the members show the AEW curving to the northeast of the Islands and the CONUS. 25 Sept is a late date for a CV LF.

[IcyTundra]

Omg!

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1436414902776696834

Even with ridging building in, most of the members show the AEW curving to the northeast of the Islands and the CONUS. 25 Sept is a late date for a CV LF.

Only one I can think of is Georges in 1998 making landfall in MS on Sept 28th though Georges was already passing through the Florida Straits on Sept 25th.

[SFLcane]