2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

And again!

https://i.postimg.cc/Fsf253HN/F50-EAE6-F-11-B0-41-DD-B33-E-5023-E03-B4-E2-C.png

Whereas there are many of those in the process of a safe recurve, there are a decent number of those on the left side that already either hit the NE Caribbean and/or would be potential threats to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and possibly even the US E coast in some cases within a few days later:

Larry there will be a building ridge potentially thx to the typhoon. Those ensembles a good chunk we’re coming further west and i expect eps to keep trending that Way.

[AlphaToOmega]

https://i.postimg.cc/rsqxGSZW/AD9-BB8-F2-D1-CC-4892-B4-E5-C126-DBE29-D5-D.gif

So much for those people who said no Cape Verde threats for the rest of the season

[Shell Mound]

https://i.postimg.cc/rsqxGSZW/AD9-BB8-F2-D1-CC-4892-B4-E5-C126-DBE29-D5-D.gif

So much for those people who said no Cape Verde threats for the rest of the season

Based on climatology/timing, CV threats to the CONUS are likely finished, but this upcoming system could very well impact the Islands, including Bermuda.

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/rsqxGSZW/AD9-BB8-F2-D1-CC-4892-B4-E5-C126-DBE29-D5-D.gif

So much for those people who said no Cape Verde threats for the rest of the season

Based on climatology/timing, CV threats to the CONUS are likely finished, but this upcoming system could very well impact the Islands, including Bermuda.

Stop!

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.postimg.cc/rsqxGSZW/AD9-BB8-F2-D1-CC-4892-B4-E5-C126-DBE29-D5-D.gif

So much for those people who said no Cape Verde threats for the rest of the season

Based on climatology/timing, CV threats to the CONUS are likely finished, but this upcoming system could very well impact the Islands, including Bermuda.

Yeah but it looks like it will be passing through a Hebert Box, so…

[CyclonicFury]

https://i.postimg.cc/rsqxGSZW/AD9-BB8-F2-D1-CC-4892-B4-E5-C126-DBE29-D5-D.gif

So much for those people who said no Cape Verde threats for the rest of the season

Based on climatology/timing, CV threats to the CONUS are likely finished, but this upcoming system could very well impact the Islands, including Bermuda.

Gloria and Georges would like a word

[Shell Mound]

So much for those people who said no Cape Verde threats for the rest of the season

Based on climatology/timing, CV threats to the CONUS are likely finished, but this upcoming system could very well impact the Islands, including Bermuda.

Gloria and Georges would like a word

There are quite a few TUTTs and shortwaves passing through on the 12Z EC guidance, so there is a lot of opportunity for a N turn beyond the Islands.

[AutoPenalti]

Based on climatology/timing, CV threats to the CONUS are likely finished, but this upcoming system could very well impact the Islands, including Bermuda.

Gloria and Georges would like a word

There are quite a few TUTTs and shortwaves passing through on the 12Z EC guidance, so there is a lot of opportunity for a N turn beyond the Islands.

There hasn't been chatter about that. Typhoon Chutulu's injection into the NE will likely be amplifying both the ridge and trough. It's just a matter of where this wave will be at by that time.

[SFLcane]

Based on climatology/timing, CV threats to the CONUS are likely finished, but this upcoming system could very well impact the Islands, including Bermuda.

Gloria and Georges would like a word

There are quite a few TUTTs and shortwaves passing through on the 12Z EC guidance, so there is a lot of opportunity for a N turn beyond the Islands.

Wait, according to you This season was going to underperform yet we have had 3 majors already. Enough with the down casting it’s really tiring and getting old frankly,

[AlphaToOmega]

Based on climatology/timing, CV threats to the CONUS are likely finished, but this upcoming system could very well impact the Islands, including Bermuda.

Gloria and Georges would like a word

There are quite a few TUTTs and shortwaves passing through on the 12Z EC guidance, so there is a lot of opportunity for a N turn beyond the Islands.

What I am seeing on the ECENS ensembles is a strong Azores-Bermuda High, which would promote landfalling storms.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1436425838673620995

[Category5Kaiju]

Gloria and Georges would like a word

There are quite a few TUTTs and shortwaves passing through on the 12Z EC guidance, so there is a lot of opportunity for a N turn beyond the Islands.

There hasn't been chatter about that. Typhoon Chutulu's injection into the NE will likely be amplifying both the ridge and trough. It's just a matter of where this wave will be at by that time.

I agree; if anything, mets like Eric Webb and Andy Hazelton have been hinting mainly at the idea that this thing could get decently west. Early models do not show a clear recurve like with Larry. Not sure where the source of the many TUTTs as Shell Mound states is coming from honestly.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC ensembles in the long-range:

[otowntiger]

0z NASA / GMAO....
AEW wave goes NW
Bahama system into Ga. /SC @ 240Hr

[url]https://i.ibb.co/1n0fHfq/Animatione.gif [/url]

Hey, now the GFS at least has a little more peer support for the GA storm!

When we are having to look at the long-range NASA and ICON models for CONUS threats, that tells me things are looking good for the CONUS at the moment. Also latest GFS shows really nothing of concern. I do see a large eastern CONUS trough in the long-range which looks to help turn the tiny near naked swirl between the Lesser Antilles and Africa northward east of the Bahamas.

Good point. But of course as many here will point out the long range models are anything but conclusive. So anything can happen even in the relative short term that may not be accurately depicted by any model.

[aspen]

https://i.postimg.cc/rsqxGSZW/AD9-BB8-F2-D1-CC-4892-B4-E5-C126-DBE29-D5-D.gif

So much for those people who said no Cape Verde threats for the rest of the season

Based on climatology/timing, CV threats to the CONUS are likely finished, but this upcoming system could very well impact the Islands, including Bermuda.

We can only hope it turns out to sea, but even if it misses the CONUS, it could be a problem for the Lesser Antilles and NW Caribbean like Maria, which formed at a similar time and had a similar track to what is being modeled.

[otowntiger]

https://i.postimg.cc/rsqxGSZW/AD9-BB8-F2-D1-CC-4892-B4-E5-C126-DBE29-D5-D.gif

So much for those people who said no Cape Verde threats for the rest of the season

So are we now certain there will be a Cape Verde threat? Is this based on just one model run?

[SFLcane]

Got a serious concern for this one folks! Unfortunately The typhoon will potentially be alternating the long wave pattern to more ridging.

Scary vibes…

[Stormybajan]

Got a serious concern for this one folks! Unfortunately The typhoon will potentially be alternating the long wave pattern to more ridging.

Scary vibes…

Hmmmmmmmmm I'll have to wait for a few days of consistency before I really get my guard up, we know how the Euro is with waves in Africa and how different it is AFTER they exit. Right now about every scenario is still on the table

[aspen]

Got a serious concern for this one folks! Unfortunately The typhoon will potentially be alternating the long wave pattern to more ridging.

Scary vibes…

I started calling Chanthu “Chthulu” are a joke, but I might’ve just jinxed us if it pumps the ridge and sends that low-rider into the islands or CONUS.

[Iceresistance]

https://i.postimg.cc/rsqxGSZW/AD9-BB8-F2-D1-CC-4892-B4-E5-C126-DBE29-D5-D.gif

So much for those people who said no Cape Verde threats for the rest of the season

Based on climatology/timing, CV threats to the CONUS are likely finished, but this upcoming system could very well impact the Islands, including Bermuda.

The CV threats are not over! There has been October Cape Verde Hurricanes before! (Joan-Miriam 1988)