2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Frank2]

By 10/3 the GFS has an early polar high moving SE towards the GC, and if true when that 1028 high moves east, that would impact anything to our south...

[LarryWx]

By 10/3 the GFS has an early polar high moving SE towards the GC, and if true when that 1028 high moves east, that would impact anything to our south...

Frank,
Please clarify what you mean. Thanks.

[otowntiger]

By 10/3 the GFS has an early polar high moving SE towards the GC, and if true when that 1028 high moves east, that would impact anything to our south...

Frank,
Please clarify what you mean. Thanks.

I presume that means the high pressure would be bringing cool stable air to the coast and blunting anything tropical like a force field away and sharply to the east.

[floridasun78]

you think by wed we see circle in outlook in nw Caribbean or se Caribbean?

[psyclone]

By 10/3 the GFS has an early polar high moving SE towards the GC, and if true when that 1028 high moves east, that would impact anything to our south...

The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks both show the combo of above normal temps and precip over florida. In fact the 8-14 day shows above normal temp anomalies returning to the entire eastern US. The current shot of fall temps that is about to cool off the east (and ultimately kick Maria out to sea) appears as if it will not make it to Florida. It will at least briefly make it into the deep south. If anything, the evolving pattern seems to favor future mischief rather than mitigating it. As always it's subject to change but it provides no comfort at this point imo.

[toad strangler]

Trying to decipher some of these posts IRT the GFS is like a riddle and I'm a pretty proficient amateur...

What I see is the GFS overall is stuck in truncated far off fantasy timeframe with any potential development and refuses to move up in time for the last 5 days really.

[LarryWx]

you think by wed we see circle in outlook in nw Caribbean or se Caribbean?

If the EPS runs continue to suggest increased chances and if all GEFS runs (not just 18Z) become active, I'd go with a circle by Fri or Sat. Wed might be too early.

[LarryWx]

By 10/3 the GFS has an early polar high moving SE towards the GC, and if true when that 1028 high moves east, that would impact anything to our south...

Frank,
Please clarify what you mean. Thanks.

I presume that means the high pressure would be bringing cool stable air to the coast and blunting anything tropical like a force field away and sharply to the east.

I don't think it is nearly that simple. Nor do I think a big Canadian high coming down necessarily acts like a force field.

[LarryWx]

Trying to decipher some of these posts IRT the GFS is like a riddle and I'm a pretty proficient amateur...

What I see is the GFS overall is stuck in truncated far off fantasy timeframe with any potential development and refuses to move up in time for the last 5 days really.

Are you referring to my GEFS posts by chance?

[toad strangler]

Trying to decipher some of these posts IRT the GFS is like a riddle and I'm a pretty proficient amateur...

What I see is the GFS overall is stuck in truncated far off fantasy timeframe with any potential development and refuses to move up in time for the last 5 days really.

Are you referring to my GEFS posts by chance?

Your reads are informative. I guess I'm just not on a level that allows understanding of where you are coming from. To me, the GFS for the past 3 and 4 days has been in a post truncated rut with development and won't budge.

[otowntiger]

Frank,
Please clarify what you mean. Thanks.

I presume that means the high pressure would be bringing cool stable air to the coast and blunting anything tropical like a force field away and sharply to the east.

I don't think it is nearly that simple. Nor do I think a big Canadian high coming down necessarily acts like a force field.

. Well obviously the overall setup could have a lot other factors at play and of course I'm not suggesting that I know this will happen. Just trying to answer what it could mean if a cold Canadian high did set up like Frank saw in one model. But yes a high pressure could act like a force field-of sorts I would think- the Bermuda high pressure does. Hurricanes are steered around it certainly not toward it.

[SFLcane]

06z drops development all together favoring the epac which I think is also a likely outcome.

[CourierPR]

06z drops development all together favoring the epac which I think is also a likely outcome.

You base your opinion off one model run and what other factors?

[SFLcane]

06z drops development all together favoring the epac which I think is also a likely outcome.

You base your opinion off one model run and what other factors?

Based solely this is still very long range and time has not been brought in. Conditions are favorable but it’s hard to pin point exactly were if any development could occur. Hoping it’s on epac we’ve had enough this season.

[Alyono]

06z drops development all together favoring the epac which I think is also a likely outcome.

not in a la nina

[tropicwatch]

06Z euro also showing EPAC.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro final frame shows vorticity in the Caribbean.

[RL3AO]

Looks like a pretty classic CAG event. Wouldn't be surprised to see a TC in the EPac and Atlantic.

[otowntiger]

Looks like a pretty classic CAG event. Wouldn't be surprised to see a TC in the EPac and Atlantic.

What's 'CAG' stand for? thanks.

[LarryWx]

06z drops development all together favoring the epac which I think is also a likely outcome.

You base your opinion off one model run and what other factors?

Not only that, but the 6Z currently seems to have a pretty significant anti-TC genesis bias in the western ATL basin. Looking at the GEFS, the 6Z has been the weakest of the 4 runs for many days now just as the 18Z has been the strongest/biased pro-TC development there. The 0Z/12Z appear to be the least biased of the GEFS.