Wampadawg wrote:Is the 94L thread locked?
Is open.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=122258&p=2941650#p2941650
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aspen wrote:As noted a few weeks ago, the GFS is having a lot of difficulty developing anything in the MDR compared to the west Atlantic, or at the very least being consistent about it. It has developed 94L and the Bahamas systems for the last few runs, but has been flip-flopping with the 0/20 AOI.
otowntiger wrote:So I’m guessing, without even looking that the models have backed off of the development of the African waves based on the fact this thread is so dead, lol.
otowntiger wrote:So I’m guessing, without even looking that the models have backed off of the development of the African waves based on the fact this thread is so dead, lol.
Shell Mound wrote:sma10 wrote:SFLcane wrote:
Wait, according to you This season was going to underperform yet we have had 3 majors already. Enough with the down casting it’s really tiring and getting old frankly,
And let's not forget the famous "given the lack of CV threats, it looks extremely unlikely the CONUS will be threatened by a Major" prediction.
And then Ida struck 5 days later.
I consider “CV” systems to be cyclones that become depressions or stronger while over the MDR. Technically, Ida was not a classic CV-type system, per definition.
sma10 wrote:Shell Mound wrote:sma10 wrote:
And let's not forget the famous "given the lack of CV threats, it looks extremely unlikely the CONUS will be threatened by a Major" prediction.
And then Ida struck 5 days later.
I consider “CV” systems to be cyclones that become depressions or stronger while over the MDR. Technically, Ida was not a classic CV-type system, per definition.
Ida was not a CV system, and that was exactly my point.
Since you were of the belief that the US was highly unlikely to be hit by a CV system this season, you made a very broad (and incorrect) generalized statement that the US was basically protected from being hit by a major, completely disregarding the very real threat of non-CV systems
Shell Mound wrote:sma10 wrote:Shell Mound wrote:I consider “CV” systems to be cyclones that become depressions or stronger while over the MDR. Technically, Ida was not a classic CV-type system, per definition.
Ida was not a CV system, and that was exactly my point.
Since you were of the belief that the US was highly unlikely to be hit by a CV system this season, you made a very broad (and incorrect) generalized statement that the US was basically protected from being hit by a major, completely disregarding the very real threat of non-CV systems
If I recall correctly, I stated that most Category-4+ landfalls on the CONUS are associated with CV-type systems, so I assumed that the U.S. would be more likely to escape Category-4+ impacts in 2021, owing to the projected absence of landfalls associated with CV-type systems. Obviously, I was incorrect, and Ida ended up being one of the costliest storms in American history. Ironically, a -AMO cycle may make cases such as Ida’s more likely, as a higher proportion of the Category-4+ impacts that do occur would be more likely to be associated with non-CV systems during a long-term -AMO cycle, given that the MDR tends to produce more long-tracking majors during a +AMO than a -AMO. However, climatologically speaking, I did note that most Category-4+ impacts on the CONUS since 1851 were associated with CV-type systems, though obviously this did not render “homegrown” Category-4+ impacts impossible.
Blown Away wrote:12z EURO decent shift N days 7-10 and looks like whatever develops will stay well N of Caribbean and be far enough N to miss CONUS and take a Larry type track.
LarryWx wrote:Blown Away wrote:12z EURO decent shift N days 7-10 and looks like whatever develops will stay well N of Caribbean and be far enough N to miss CONUS and take a Larry type track.
Imo, the difference is that with Larry it was a pretty easy call for a well OTS recurve due to the unanimous prog for a strong NE US trough vs with this one where there is no strong trough progged at least yet.
toad strangler wrote:Shell Mound wrote:sma10 wrote:Ida was not a CV system, and that was exactly my point.
Since you were of the belief that the US was highly unlikely to be hit by a CV system this season, you made a very broad (and incorrect) generalized statement that the US was basically protected from being hit by a major, completely disregarding the very real threat of non-CV systems
If I recall correctly, I stated that most Category-4+ landfalls on the CONUS are associated with CV-type systems, so I assumed that the U.S. would be more likely to escape Category-4+ impacts in 2021, owing to the projected absence of landfalls associated with CV-type systems. Obviously, I was incorrect, and Ida ended up being one of the costliest storms in American history. Ironically, a -AMO cycle may make cases such as Ida’s more likely, as a higher proportion of the Category-4+ impacts that do occur would be more likely to be associated with non-CV systems during a long-term -AMO cycle, given that the MDR tends to produce more long-tracking majors during a +AMO than a -AMO. However, climatologically speaking, I did note that most Category-4+ impacts on the CONUS since 1851 were associated with CV-type systems, though obviously this did not render “homegrown” Category-4+ impacts impossible.
You hedged climo was bulletproof and lost.
sma10 wrote:LarryWx wrote:Blown Away wrote:12z EURO decent shift N days 7-10 and looks like whatever develops will stay well N of Caribbean and be far enough N to miss CONUS and take a Larry type track.
Imo, the difference is that with Larry it was a pretty easy call for a well OTS recurve due to the unanimous prog for a strong NE US trough vs with this one where there is no strong trough progged at least yet.
Also Larry, isn't the 12z OP quite a bit further north than the ensembles?
sma10 wrote:toad strangler wrote:Shell Mound wrote:If I recall correctly, I stated that most Category-4+ landfalls on the CONUS are associated with CV-type systems, so I assumed that the U.S. would be more likely to escape Category-4+ impacts in 2021, owing to the projected absence of landfalls associated with CV-type systems. Obviously, I was incorrect, and Ida ended up being one of the costliest storms in American history. Ironically, a -AMO cycle may make cases such as Ida’s more likely, as a higher proportion of the Category-4+ impacts that do occur would be more likely to be associated with non-CV systems during a long-term -AMO cycle, given that the MDR tends to produce more long-tracking majors during a +AMO than a -AMO. However, climatologically speaking, I did note that most Category-4+ impacts on the CONUS since 1851 were associated with CV-type systems, though obviously this did not render “homegrown” Category-4+ impacts impossible.
You hedged climo was bulletproof and lost.
Also, what are the actual stats on Cat 4+ US landfalls? Are "most" CV systems? Camille, Michael, Ida and Labor Day weren't. Andrew was (per se) but was a relative non entity until approach to the Bahamas. Frankly, homegrown seems proportionally a greater risk then long-trackers
Shell Mound wrote:
If I recall correctly, I stated that most Category-4+ landfalls on the CONUS are associated with CV-type systems, so I assumed that the U.S. would be more likely to escape Category-4+ impacts in 2021, owing to the projected absence of landfalls associated with CV-type systems. Obviously, I was incorrect, and Ida ended up being one of the costliest storms in American history. Ironically, a -AMO cycle may make cases such as Ida’s more likely, as a higher proportion of the Category-4+ impacts that do occur would be more likely to be associated with non-CV systems during a long-term -AMO cycle, given that the MDR tends to produce more long-tracking majors during a +AMO than a -AMO. However, climatologically speaking, I did note that most Category-4+ impacts on the CONUS since 1851 were associated with CV-type systems, though obviously this did not render “homegrown” Category-4+ impacts impossible.
SteveM wrote:Shell Mound wrote:
If I recall correctly, I stated that most Category-4+ landfalls on the CONUS are associated with CV-type systems, so I assumed that the U.S. would be more likely to escape Category-4+ impacts in 2021, owing to the projected absence of landfalls associated with CV-type systems. Obviously, I was incorrect, and Ida ended up being one of the costliest storms in American history. Ironically, a -AMO cycle may make cases such as Ida’s more likely, as a higher proportion of the Category-4+ impacts that do occur would be more likely to be associated with non-CV systems during a long-term -AMO cycle, given that the MDR tends to produce more long-tracking majors during a +AMO than a -AMO. However, climatologically speaking, I did note that most Category-4+ impacts on the CONUS since 1851 were associated with CV-type systems, though obviously this did not render “homegrown” Category-4+ impacts impossible.
Proportionally more cases like Ida does not mean that cases like Ida 'become more likely'.
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