2014 hurricane season forecasts

[blp]

I believe the "normal" for the stability graphics was recalculated to include the current (new) region.

Thanks for clarifying. Then things are still quite bad with the instability.

[ninel conde]

if we go thru june with no development then the lowest range of forecasts will verify. one thing i am noticing is well above normal pressures in the MDR just as forecast by the euro.

[WPBWeather]

Way too soon to call the season. No one seems agree on even whether an El Nino may come, and with many bad seasonal forecasts last year--well. let's wait and see.

[TheStormExpert]

I personally think an El Niño is well on it's way! The effects are already being felt with the East Pacific being very active and the Atlantic being very hostile.

[wxman57]

El Nino is definitely looking to be a bit weaker than was forecast. Possibly < 1C above normal through peak season. A weaker El Nino has less of an impact on development. Could be just a little below normal this year, but more hurricanes than last year.

[ninel conde]

El Nino is definitely looking to be a bit weaker than was forecast. Possibly < 1C above normal through peak season. A weaker El Nino has less of an impact on development. Could be just a little below normal this year, but more hurricanes than last year.

JB sounds the alarm for sept

oe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 4h

Post on http://weatherbell.com shows the similarities between JMA Sep outlook and Aug 1955.. Connie/Diane tandem

for any hurricanes to form we need more things to change than just the enso. the euro forecast of super high pressures will have to bust, instability will have to rise, and shear lessen.

[SFLcane]

El Nino is definitely looking to be a bit weaker than was forecast. Possibly < 1C above normal through peak season. A weaker El Nino has less of an impact on development. Could be just a little below normal this year, but more hurricanes than last year.

Interesting...

[WPBWeather]

Once again, an El Nino possibility is fading. This season is up for grabs.

[ninel conde]

Once again, an El Nino posibility is fading. This season is up for grabs.

not really. we have all the negative factors of last season plus atlantic sst's are cooler and even if we never officially have an el nino its considerably warmer than last season in the pacific and last season had a grand total of 2 canes, no majors.

[WPBWeather]

Once again, not really. But you are entitled to call the season over as you have tried to do many times in the past.

[Ntxw]

It takes more than no El Nino to help what is going on in the Atlantic. Wind shear across the Carib/Gulf/MDR are unusually high, even for the time of year. Aside from the EPAC all basins are still suffering dry air. Vertical instability is just as bad as last season, it will take more than the Pacific to recover the Atlantic basin. I thought last year El Nino could turn up more moisture for the atmosphere but it's still just as dry for the Atlantic with sinking air remaining dominant.

[Hurricaneman]

List of Tropical storms and hurricanes from cold core storms and ULLs since 1950

1978 Ella 140mph
1956 Greta 140mph
1984 Diana 135mph
1991 Claudette 130mph
1964 Isbell 125mph
2004 Alex 120mph
1985 Kate 120mph
2012 Michael 115mph
1991 Bob 115mph
1983 Alicia 115mph
1962 Ella 115mph
1951 Able 115mph
1994 Florence 110mph
1992 Bonnie 110mph
1992 Charley 110mph
1975 Doris 110mph
1971 Ginger 110mph
1963 Ginny 110mph
2003 Juan 105mph
1998 Karl 105mph
1991 Grace 105mph
1980 Ivan 105mph
1972 Betty 105mph
1970 HU9 105mph
1969 Kara 105mph
2002 Gustav 100mph
2000 Michael 100mph
2005 Nate 90mph
2001 Olga 90mph
1981 Emily 90mph
1976 Candice 90mph
1973 Alice 90mph
2012 Chris 85mph
2010 Otto 85mph
2005 Ophelia 85mph
2005 Epsilon 85mph
2002 Kyle 85mph
1998 Nicole 85mph
1992 Frances 85mph
1986 Bonnie 85mph
1985 Claudette 85mph
1985 Juan 85mph
1980 Karl 85mph
1972 Agnes 85mph
1971 Unnamed 85mph
1971 Beth 85mph
1967 Doria 85mph
1966 Dorothy 85mph
1959 Debra 85mph
2001 Karen 80mph
2000 Florence 80mph
1990 Bertha 80mph
1988 Florence 80mph
1986 Charley 80mph
1984 Lili 80mph
1980 Charley 80mph
1973 Fran 80mph
1968 STS1 80mph
1966 Lois 80mph
1957 Frieda 80mph
2010 Shary 75mph
2007 Andrea 75mph
2005 Vince 75mph
2004 Gaston 75mph
2001 Noel 75mph
1997 Bill 75mph
1996 Marco 75mph
1993 Harvey 75mph
1991 Perfect Storm 75mph
1990 Lili 75mph
1987 Arlene 75mph
1984 Hortense 75mph
1983 Chantal 75mph
1979 STS1 75mph
1977 Babe 75mph
1970 HU10 75mph
1969 HU10 75mph
1969 HU17 75mph
1968 Abby 75mph
1968 Brenda 75mph
1967 Becky 75mph
1959 Cindy 75mph
2012 Beryl 70mph
2011 Bret 70mph
2011 Cindy 70mph
2005 Delta 70mph
2003 Peter 70mph
1996 Josephine 70mph
1995 Barry 70mph
1985 Ana 70mph
1982 STS1 70mph
1981 Bret 70mph
1981 STS3 70mph
1975 STS2 70mph
1972 Alpha 70mph
1972 Carrie 70mph
1970 Felice 70mph
1969 TS11 70mph
1969 TS16 70mph
1959 Beulah 70mph
1957 Bertha 70mph
1956 Ethel 70mph
2013 Melissa 65mph
2011 Gert 65mph
2011 Sean 65mph
2009 Grace 65mph
2008 Edouard 65mph
2005 Zeta 65mph
2002 Edouard 65mph
2000 Unnamed 65mph
1992 Danielle 65mph
1990 Marco 65mph
1985 Fabian 65mph
1983 Dean 65mph
1982 Chris 65mph
1978 Hope 65mph
1974 STS1 65mph
1972 Charlie 65mph
1971 Arlene 65mph
1969 Jenny 65mph
2012 Alberto 60mph
2009 Claudette 60mph
2008 Laura 60mph
2007 Gabrielle 60mph
2007 Olga 60mph
2006 Beryl 60mph
2004 Hermine 60mph
2003 Ana 60mph
2002 Arthur 60mph
2000 Nadine 60mph
1999 Arlene 60mph
1984 STS1 60mph
1984 Cesar 60mph
1981 Cindy 60mph
1974 STS3 60mph
1969 Eve 60mph
1969 STS1 60mph
1963 TS3 60mph
1959 Irene 60mph
1956 Unnamed 60mph
2013 Jerry 50mph
2013 Lorenzo 50mph
2013 Unnamed 50mph
2012 Tony 50mph
2007 Chantal 50mph
2006 Unnamed 50mph
2005 Unnamed 50mph
2004 Nicole 50mph
2004 Otto 50mph
2002 Cristobal 50mph
1997 Unnamed 50mph
1992 STS1 50mph
1991 Ana 50mph
1978 Bess 50mph
1978 Irma 50mph
1976 STS1 50mph
1976 Dottie 50mph
1975 Hallie 50mph
1974 STS2 50mph
1974 Dolly 50mph
1974 STS4 50mph
1964 Brenda 50mph
2011 Franklin 45mph
2011 Jose 45mph
2011 Unnamed 45mph
2000 Leslie 45mph
1997 Ana 45mph
1997 Claudette 45mph
1997 Grace 45mph
1995 Dean 45mph
1991 Fabian 45mph
1990 Edouard 45mph
1978 STS1 45mph
1976 Anna 45mph
1976 STS3 45mph
1973 Alfa 45mph
1972 Delta 45mph
2007 Jerry 40mph
2002 Bertha 40mph
2002 Josephine 40mph
2001 Lorenzo 40mph

12 of these type of formation became a major hurricane which is 6.7%
82 became hurricanes which is 45.3%
99 failed to become hurricanes which is 54.7%

this is proof that not all storms that have a more Subtropical origin are going to be complete messes and in some cases can be quite damaging especially if they form on fronts close to land

[SFLcane]

Once again, an El Nino posibility is fading. This season is up for grabs.

not really. we have all the negative factors of last season plus atlantic sst's are cooler and even if we never officially have an el nino its considerably warmer than last season in the pacific and last season had a grand total of 2 canes, no majors.

Sst's are plenty warm near home and should be fine come August 20 which is typically when the real season starts. Again we are way to focused on numbers when it just takes 1 storm near u to make a bad season. still thinking 10/5/2 a normal season.

[Yellow Evan]

Once again, an El Nino possibility is fading. This season is up for grabs.

I can't see this El Nino busting. Even then, conditions IMO don't look any better than they were last year.

[ninel conde]

It takes more than no El Nino to help what is going on in the Atlantic. Wind shear across the Carib/Gulf/MDR are unusually high, even for the time of year. Aside from the EPAC all basins are still suffering dry air. Vertical instability is just as bad as last season, it will take more than the Pacific to recover the Atlantic basin. I thought last year El Nino could turn up more moisture for the atmosphere but it's still just as dry for the Atlantic with sinking air remaining dominant.

if anything, conditions are worse than last season.

[Alyono]

some of those on that list you named were tropical waves interacting with upper lows. They were not cold core systems or the UL itself developing

[wxman57]

SSTs are quite a bit below normal across the Gulf, Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic. The only region with above normal SSTs is east of the Bahamas and from offshore Hatteras, NC to New England. Euro is still forecasting ACE 60% of normal. Last year it was the only model indicating a below normal season. Normal, by the way, is closer to 12/6/3 if we factor in the many missed storms from the pre-satellite era. I suspect there will be around 10 named storms this season, 4 hurricanes and 1 intense hurricane.

[ninel conde]

10 sounds a bit high to me. i can see aug/sept with 3 named storms total and an early end to the season after that.

[SFLcane]

10 sounds a bit high to me. i can see aug/sept with 3 named storms total and an early end to the season after that.

How about 0 storms?

[WPBWeather]

10 sounds a bit high to me. i can see aug/sept with 3 named storms total and an early end to the season after that.

I can see some wishcasting here and there...