2017 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#161 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 22, 2017 9:14 am

Now GFS has development begginnig on May 30.

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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#162 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 22, 2017 10:51 am

06z GFS ans 12z Euro were in better agreement.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#163 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 22, 2017 11:50 am

Kingarabian wrote:06z GFS ans 12z Euro were in better agreement.


But 12z GFS had nothing.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#164 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 22, 2017 12:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:06z GFS ans 12z Euro were in better agreement.


But 12z GFS had nothing.


Typical of these models so far this season.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#165 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 22, 2017 2:29 pm

6z GFS-P has a future hurricane getting blocked around 103W before intensifying out at sea.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#166 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue May 23, 2017 1:59 pm

Not that I trust it but the 12z ECMWF is showing basically two invests between 100W and 110W.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#167 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 24, 2017 3:32 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Not that I trust it but the 12z ECMWF is showing basically two invests between 100W and 110W.


Euro showing something again in 10 days. EPS are on board. But nothing seems to be materializing and the GFS is showing nothing. These models have been off to a rocky start in regards to TC genesis.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#168 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed May 24, 2017 4:57 pm

12z ECMWF day 10

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ECMWF starting to become in better agreement on 1-2 systems next week into next weekened, but with no MJO around, I'd rate development chances at 35% at best.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#169 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 24, 2017 5:13 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:12z ECMWF day 10

[mg]http://i.imgur.com/ffMrqAr.png[/img]

ECMWF starting to become in better agreement on 1-2 systems next week into next weekened, but with no MJO around, I'd rate development chances at 35% at best.


GFS running, let's see if it comes back on board.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#170 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed May 24, 2017 5:50 pm

12z GFS-P has a weak and sprawling system close to Socorro Island.

18z GFS just has a closed low in the ECMWF position.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#171 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu May 25, 2017 12:23 am

UKMET is also hinting at another ts when the next wave pass's along the mt.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#172 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 25, 2017 4:54 am

Euro still on board with development @ 00z.

Let's see if the GFS joins in.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#173 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 25, 2017 6:29 am

GFS continues to show nothing. All of a sudden it's become conservative. If the Euro continues to show a system forming, then the GFS is setting itself up for another fail.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#174 Postby weathaguyry » Thu May 25, 2017 6:37 am

Kingarabian wrote:GFS continues to show nothing. All of a sudden it's become conservative. If the Euro continues to show a system forming, then the GFS is setting itself up for another fail.


Unless nothing forms, in which case we may have a GFS win, which isn't likely but it is possible
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#175 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 25, 2017 10:57 am

Near normal to slightly active EPAC season is what NOAA has.

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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#176 Postby gatorcane » Thu May 25, 2017 1:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:GFS continues to show nothing. All of a sudden it's become conservative. If the Euro continues to show a system forming, then the GFS is setting itself up for another fail.


This is the same Euro that showed a CAT 5 out of Adrian. Let's face it both models are struggling in the EPAC this season so far.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#177 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 25, 2017 1:08 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS continues to show nothing. All of a sudden it's become conservative. If the Euro continues to show a system forming, then the GFS is setting itself up for another fail.


This is the same Euro that showed a CAT 5 out of Adrian. Let's face it both models are struggling in the EPAC this season so far.


GFS is the one with score of .25 over thre past week. That's like 1980s levels. ECMWF is the lesser of two evils right now.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#178 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 25, 2017 1:47 pm

The time frame continues to come in on the Euro. Broad system.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#179 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 25, 2017 1:48 pm

12z ECMWf continue to develop southeast of Acapulco.

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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#180 Postby gatorcane » Thu May 25, 2017 7:20 pm

Zip from the GFS
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