2017 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Now GFS has development begginnig on May 30.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS ans 12z Euro were in better agreement.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS ans 12z Euro were in better agreement.

But 12z GFS had nothing.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS ans 12z Euro were in better agreement.

But 12z GFS had nothing.

Typical of these models so far this season.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS-P has a future hurricane getting blocked around 103W before intensifying out at sea.

[Yellow Evan]

Not that I trust it but the 12z ECMWF is showing basically two invests between 100W and 110W.

[Kingarabian]

Not that I trust it but the 12z ECMWF is showing basically two invests between 100W and 110W.

Euro showing something again in 10 days. EPS are on board. But nothing seems to be materializing and the GFS is showing nothing. These models have been off to a rocky start in regards to TC genesis.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF day 10



ECMWF starting to become in better agreement on 1-2 systems next week into next weekened, but with no MJO around, I'd rate development chances at 35% at best.

[Kingarabian]

12z ECMWF day 10

[mg]http://i.imgur.com/ffMrqAr.png[/img]

ECMWF starting to become in better agreement on 1-2 systems next week into next weekened, but with no MJO around, I'd rate development chances at 35% at best.

GFS running, let's see if it comes back on board.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS-P has a weak and sprawling system close to Socorro Island.

18z GFS just has a closed low in the ECMWF position.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

UKMET is also hinting at another ts when the next wave pass's along the mt.

[Kingarabian]

Euro still on board with development @ 00z.

Let's see if the GFS joins in.

[Kingarabian]

GFS continues to show nothing. All of a sudden it's become conservative. If the Euro continues to show a system forming, then the GFS is setting itself up for another fail.

[weathaguyry]

GFS continues to show nothing. All of a sudden it's become conservative. If the Euro continues to show a system forming, then the GFS is setting itself up for another fail.

Unless nothing forms, in which case we may have a GFS win, which isn't likely but it is possible

[cycloneye]

Near normal to slightly active EPAC season is what NOAA has.

[gatorcane]

GFS continues to show nothing. All of a sudden it's become conservative. If the Euro continues to show a system forming, then the GFS is setting itself up for another fail.

This is the same Euro that showed a CAT 5 out of Adrian. Let's face it both models are struggling in the EPAC this season so far.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS continues to show nothing. All of a sudden it's become conservative. If the Euro continues to show a system forming, then the GFS is setting itself up for another fail.

This is the same Euro that showed a CAT 5 out of Adrian. Let's face it both models are struggling in the EPAC this season so far.

GFS is the one with score of .25 over thre past week. That's like 1980s levels. ECMWF is the lesser of two evils right now.

[Kingarabian]

The time frame continues to come in on the Euro. Broad system.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWf continue to develop southeast of Acapulco.

[gatorcane]

Zip from the GFS