2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[WeatherEmperor]

Hey guys,

Could the image below explain why the Atlantic has been cooler than normal for so long? The atmosphere has been in a +NAO state going back to January this year. There are some small dips into - territory but as a whole for the last 4 months or so it has been mostly positive. I learned that +NAO tends to have a stronger Azored High...which causes stronger trades and thus cooler than normal Atlantic SST. Could this also explain why some think we may be switching to a -AMO...but it is actually the +NAO responsible? Any thoughts on this??




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[NotSparta]

Hey guys,

Could the image below explain why the Atlantic has been cooler than normal for so long? The atmosphere has been in a +NAO state going back to January this year. There are some small dips into - territory but as a whole for the last 4 months or so it has been mostly positive. I learned that +NAO tends to have a stronger Azored High...which causes stronger trades and thus cooler than normal Atlantic SST. Could this also explain why some think we may be switching to a -AMO...but it is actually the +NAO responsible? Any thoughts on this??




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As said before, usually a -AMO era starts with a slowing AMOC, this current -AMO signature is caused mostly by +NAO effects

[galaxy401]

Hey guys,

Could the image below explain why the Atlantic has been cooler than normal for so long?

I'm sure there are more factors to the Atlantic being cool. The eastern US had one of the coldest Aprils on record so I wonder if it is indirectly contributing to the Atlantic?

[NotSparta]

Hey guys,

Could the image below explain why the Atlantic has been cooler than normal for so long?

I'm sure there are more factors to the Atlantic being cool. The eastern US had one of the coldest Aprils on record so I wonder if it is indirectly contributing to the Atlantic?

Trades can explain this current cooling, and it fits the current situation. If the cool April were to affect SSTs, it would cool down the subtropics

[weathaguyry]

[NotSparta]

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_atl_1.png[img]

I have no idea why this is happening. Trades are faster than normal and we have +NAO/+AO that should keep it cool

[Dylan]

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_atl_1.png[img]

I have no idea why this is happening. Trades are faster than normal and we have +NAO/+AO that should keep it cool

Increasing Sun angle might have something to do with it!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[NotSparta]

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_atl_1.png[img]

I have no idea why this is happening. Trades are faster than normal and we have +NAO/+AO that should keep it cool

Increasing Sun angle might have something to do with it!

Lol, but it's warming faster than normal. Not sure why

[NotSparta]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/993185492173635584

[StruThiO]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/analogs/analogs_monthly_sst.png

I understand that these WILL change, but man, 1989. A storm like Hugo would be just a cruel joke after last year

[OuterBanker]

If this NOAA forecast is accurate then I can see why JB is going to lower his ace numbers.
If this becomes true than the eastern MDR will be pretty dead.
Look at the EPAC, wow it should be very active all season, which generally lowers the Atlantic basin.
In fact, it looks as if it is really going to be active starting this week.
I too would go with lower ACE numbers.
Of concern though is the western Atlantic sub tropics. It seems it is going to stay warm so a developing weak long tracker or in close development is possible.

[LarryWx]

If this NOAA forecast is accurate then I can see why JB is going to lower his ace numbers.
If this becomes true than the eastern MDR will be pretty dead.
Look at the EPAC, wow it should be very active all season, which generally lowers the Atlantic basin.
In fact, it looks as if it is really going to be active starting this week.
I too would go with lower ACE numbers.
Of concern though is the western Atlantic sub tropics. It seems it is going to stay warm so a developing weak long tracker or in close development is possible.

It is interesting that the analogs all of the way through August have cold neutral holding with no sign of El Niño. One thing to note though is that the April analogs average is a bit colder in Niño 3.4 than April of 2018. That may be one reason.
Any comments regarding these analogs with regard to ENSO?

[NotSparta]

If this NOAA forecast is accurate then I can see why JB is going to lower his ace numbers.
If this becomes true than the eastern MDR will be pretty dead.
Look at the EPAC, wow it should be very active all season, which generally lowers the Atlantic basin.
In fact, it looks as if it is really going to be active starting this week.
I too would go with lower ACE numbers.
Of concern though is the western Atlantic sub tropics. It seems it is going to stay warm so a developing weak long tracker or in close development is possible.

Seems that this year's MDR is a lot warmer than the analogs, I'm not so sure they're the best for that area

[gatorcane]

Latest SST anomaly map that came out today. Two things: waters near Hawaii are warming still and the "Atlantic El Nino" with warmer than normal waters near the equator south of Africa continues...

[AnnularCane]

What the heck is an Atlantic El Nino, and would it have the same effect on the Atlantic that a "regular" El Nino has on the EPAC (and maybe CPAC too)?

[SFLcane]

Waters across the main development region should be fine come August. Again the all important as it is every season is what will the steering look like during that time.

[chaser1]

Waters across the main development region should be fine come August. Again the all important as it is every season is what will the steering look like during that time.

"WORD"

[Ntxw]

There is very little study on Atlantic "Nino". It is a much more ill defined thing. There isn't a strong correlation. There are big seasons for Atlantic Nino and Atlantic Nina. 2004/2005 had cold equatorial and African waters while 2016/2017 were warm. But there are also quiet seasons for both as well.

It's not as strong a known signal as per say the AMO/AMOC system

[Shell Mound]

Hostile conditions are already showing up over the MDR. Note the increased westerly vertical wind shear, thanks to the +PMM:

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/993840183861792768




Background forcing is not auspicious for an active Atlantic season, as the development of Aletta (INVEST 90E) may illustrate:

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/993636270516658178