2019 EPAC season

[Kingarabian]

Here we go.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for the development
of this system while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

There it is. Good call.

[NotSparta]

Here we go.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for the development
of this system while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

There it is. Good call.

"It's been 84 years..."

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1141692436869201921

[Kingarabian]

06z and 12z GFS runs much more bullish.
Edit: 12z Euro now wants to come in much weaker while the UKMET still has nothing.

[Kingarabian]

06z and 12z GFS runs much more bullish.
Edit: 12z Euro now wants to come in much weaker while the UKMET still has nothing.

12z EPS remains bullish on the potential for 2-3 named storms by the first week of July.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro down to about 980mb.

[Chris90]

Maybe the EPAC is just more considerate than some of my neighbors and is waiting until it's closer to the 4th of July before it starts setting off the fireworks. With some of the modeled seasonal forecasts I'm wondering if this season is going to end up more quality than quantity, with some powerhouse long-trackers but with less "fluff" storms that boost the seasonal numbers but don't do much for ACE.

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET finally on board with development.

[Ntxw]

That's what the thought was, this is the year of the west long tracker (kind of like last year). Starting early, Alvin coming soon to a theater near you.

I'm taking a wild guess that the EPAC+ CPAC racks up another 160-200+ ACE season.

[NotSparta]

That's what the thought was, this is the year of the west long tracker (kind of like last year). Starting early, Alvin coming soon to a theater near you.

I'm taking a wild guess that the EPAC+ CPAC racks up another 160-200+ ACE season.

I agree. Not as crazy as last yr, but another season that is respectably above average

[Kingarabian]

That's what the thought was, this is the year of the west long tracker (kind of like last year). Starting early, Alvin coming soon to a theater near you.

I'm taking a wild guess that the EPAC+ CPAC racks up another 160-200+ ACE season.

Yeah 12z Euro has twin long tracking hurricanes that could easily slip south of Hawaii in the long range and generate some monster ACE.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Gradual
development of the low is possible thereafter and a tropical
depression could form while it moves west-northwestward away from
the coast of Mexico through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Gradual
development of the low is possible thereafter and a tropical
depression could form while it moves west-northwestward away from
the coast of Mexico through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Appears they are leaning on the Euro solution for now since the GFS has a TD/TS in about 48 hours.

[Nancy Smar]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days.
Gradual development of the low is possible thereafter and a tropical
depression could form while it moves west-northwestward away from
the coast of Mexico through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Chris90]

00z Euro has backed way off on intensities as opposed to previous run. I still think we will end up with something in the next few days, but it might only be a TD/TS. We will have to see how things continue to evolve over the next few days.
Although, it would be interesting if last year set the ACE record and then this year managed to set the record for the latest start to a season.
I also think it's funny that there was an area of interest back in January, yet here we are approaching July and still nothing has even managed to get classified.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located southeast of the
southern coast of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave.
A low pressure area is expected to form in association with this
system in a couple of days and gradual development is possible
while it moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico
through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[Kingarabian]

Today's 00z and 12z Euro runs pretty much have a bunch of separate weak areas of low pressures scattered across the EPAC. ll take a look at the ensembles in a little bit.

Last couple of GFS and GEFSZ runs still show the area circled by the NHC developing into a weak TS within 48 hours.

UKMET which was showing nothing for days all of a sudden is the most bullish model in its 12z run.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of the
southeastern coast of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave.
A low pressure area is expected to form in association with this
system in the next day or two. After that, continued gradual
development is possible, and a tropical depression could form by
the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

40%/70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred
miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with
a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the
week while the system moves west-northwestward away from the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Ptarmigan]

I have never seen the East Pacific so quiet this early in the season. Of course a late start does not predict how active or inactive it will be. I wonder why it has been quiet so far.