2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

I would tend to think that if we see some type of home-grown development in the next week, I like the EURO's thinking of something possibly getting triggered in the ĢOM. GFS definitely showing different scenario with the short wave trough. We will watch and see how this plays out . Meanwhile, definitely nothing coming from out in the Tropical Atlantic anytime soon with SAL continuing to keep a lid on things out there.

Speaking of the Tropical Atlantic, several recent GFS runs were starting to spark areas of low pressure and vortices in Tropical Atlantic as early as next week. Though like you said it’s likely too early and we shouldn’t expect another Beryl like last July.

[StruThiO]

here is the MJO forecast. think models might flirt with an MDR system?

[gatorcane]

JMA with lowering of pressure as well:

[Kingarabian]

here is the MJO forecast. think models might flirt with an MDR system?
https://i.imgur.com/tyk65tx.png

They should be, but I'm assuming prsent large scale sinking motion and SAL will prohibit serious development. I think later in July we could see hints of an MDR system since SAL will likely be out the way.

[USTropics]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1146855914928037888

Well timed post after mine. This is the main reason and factor why I like the EURO's potential GOM scenario. SST's are extremely warm in the GOM currently. We will have to watch this potential very carefully next week!.

The past 3 operational runs of the GFS have backed off an EC solution, culminating int today's 12z GFS run that actually has an almost identical solution to the 12z ECMWF, with the vort maximum being established along the tail end in the GOM (albeit with no development):



Looking at the ensembles, there will be quite a few variables that will ultimately determine where the vorticity consolidates. Various ensemble members show low pressure areas all along the frontal boundary up and down the EC (both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles).

12z GFS ensembles at 162 hours:


12z ECMWF ensembles at 196 hours:


Typically for this time of year, odds favor development along the tail end of the frontal boundary in the GOM. The shortwave trough will act to provide the necessary spin imo.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1146900787873964032

[NotSparta]

here is the MJO forecast. think models might flirt with an MDR system?
[url]https://i.imgur.com/tyk65tx.png[url]

They should be, but I'm assuming prsent large scale sinking motion and SAL will prohibit serious development. I think later in July we could see hints of an MDR system since SAL will likely be out the way.

I believe there could be a sneaky AOI tucked into a large wave that has moister air. Those types aren't unusual in July MDR TCs

[USTropics]

00z GFS and 00z ECMWF runs forecasting development along the GOM coastline.

00z GFS @ 210 hrs:


00z ECMWF @ 192 hrs:


It's still long range and plenty of time to watch. Genesis isn't guaranteed, but continuity and model agreement has increased. For now, watch the outflow boundary in northern Missouri. A shortwave trough should be ejected later today and begin to head SE around the periphery of the high pressure area.

[GCANE]

Looks like GFS has an anticyclone sitting over the top of the surface low for an extended period of time.
However, it is bouncing all over the place land and water.
Needless to say if it gets out early over water and stays there, development could be quick.
Forecast showing relatively high instability in the NE GOM during this time.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SSTs in the GOMEX have been well-above average his year.

[drezee]

12z Euro still onboard for N GoM Tropical Cyclone!!! 4 straight runs

[chaser1]

12z Euro still onboard for N GoM Tropical Cyclone!!! 4 straight runs

Far less impressive then prior 0Z run however. That and, GFS support is marginal at best. I'm still far from "sold" on actual TC evolution occuring in the GOM within the next 240 hrs.

I do think that any development here would fit within the scope of this years' general pattern. Just not sure that any near-term CONUS low will actually drop far enough south.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro still onboard for N GoM Tropical Cyclone!!! 4 straight runs

Far less impressive then prior 0Z run however. That and, GFS support is marginal at best. I'm still far from "sold" on actual TC evolution occuring in the GOM within the next 240 hrs.

I do think that any development here would fit within the scope of this years' general pattern. Just not sure that any near-term CONUS low will actually drop far enough south.

Wouldn't pay much intensity to the ECMWF in terms of intensity this far out. Almost always lowballs storms beyond 120 hours. The fact it has consistently shown a storm this far out is worth noting.

[AtlanticWind]

What is the GFS legacy model on tropical tidbits? Is this the older version of the gfs?

[TheStormExpert]

This setup seems very similar to when TS Edouard formed back in 2008.

[drezee]

This setup seems very similar to when TS Edouard formed back in 2008.

Yes, the weather channel has been talking that analog up. Danny 1997 is also a great analog

[USTropics]

12z ECMWF ensembles increasing in probability of genesis:

[drezee]

That is one heck of a wave coming off Africa. It has the monsoon tail and a LLC per surface obs. If it was mid-August...the NHC wiuld be calling near 100% odds

Sierra Leone surface winds turned from W to S and SSE after passage

[artist]

This could get interesting. See what Sunday brings, by way of the models.

[stormlover2013]

Just remember this is a different setup, will be fun to watch an see if something develops, I say Monday or Tuesday we will have a grasp on what’s going to happen. Models will keep wavering back and forth