2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1741 Postby zzzh » Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:00 pm

12Z EC shows a strong wave entering the Caribbean in day ~10 range. Environment looks very favorable.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1742 Postby Ianswfl » Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:35 pm

zzzh wrote:12Z EC shows a strong wave entering the Caribbean in day ~10 range. Environment looks very favorable.


Here in SWFL also getting back into a warmer pattern again so anything that forms north of Haiti or the Islands like last night gets pushed west possibly.

The 18z short range euro ensemble run is more west than 12z. Ends at 144 though. That's seperate from Tammy. Euro had it yesterday afternoon. Looked kinda sub tropical though. The longer range 12z had a couple cat1 members hitting south FL.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 8-240.html
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1743 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 20, 2023 6:00 am

Ianswfl wrote:
zzzh wrote:12Z EC shows a strong wave entering the Caribbean in day ~10 range. Environment looks very favorable.


Here in SWFL also getting back into a warmer pattern again so anything that forms north of Haiti or the Islands like last night gets pushed west possibly.

The 18z short range euro ensemble run is more west than 12z. Ends at 144 though. That's seperate from Tammy. Euro had it yesterday afternoon. Looked kinda sub tropical though. The longer range 12z had a couple cat1 members hitting south FL.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 8-240.html


You're using the ensembles wrong. Look for groupings, and past 120 hours there has to be even more extreme grouping before anything is an actual event that might happen. Take the latest EPS. This is why the NHC tagged that area. Look at all the low centers at 78 hours.

Image

That's it, that's the last usable indication on the 0Z run. The further you go out the MORE low centers in the same area you want to see. It's not appropriate to show a few members at 200 hours and call it anything. It's nothing.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1744 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 20, 2023 7:35 am

tolakram wrote:
Ianswfl wrote:
zzzh wrote:12Z EC shows a strong wave entering the Caribbean in day ~10 range. Environment looks very favorable.


Here in SWFL also getting back into a warmer pattern again so anything that forms north of Haiti or the Islands like last night gets pushed west possibly.

The 18z short range euro ensemble run is more west than 12z. Ends at 144 though. That's seperate from Tammy. Euro had it yesterday afternoon. Looked kinda sub tropical though. The longer range 12z had a couple cat1 members hitting south FL.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 8-240.html


You're using the ensembles wrong. Look for groupings, and past 120 hours there has to be even more extreme grouping before anything is an actual event that might happen. Take the latest EPS. This is why the NHC tagged that area. Look at all the low centers at 78 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/rBKuqd1.png

That's it, that's the last usable indication on the 0Z run. The further you go out the MORE low centers in the same area you want to see. It's not appropriate to show a few members at 200 hours and call it anything. It's nothing.


This! In any typical run you can always have your few rogue members.
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Re: RE: Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1745 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 20, 2023 11:12 am

SFLcane wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Ianswfl wrote:
Here in SWFL also getting back into a warmer pattern again so anything that forms north of Haiti or the Islands like last night gets pushed west possibly.

The 18z short range euro ensemble run is more west than 12z. Ends at 144 though. That's seperate from Tammy. Euro had it yesterday afternoon. Looked kinda sub tropical though. The longer range 12z had a couple cat1 members hitting south FL.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 8-240.html


You're using the ensembles wrong. Look for groupings, and past 120 hours there has to be even more extreme grouping before anything is an actual event that might happen. Take the latest EPS. This is why the NHC tagged that area. Look at all the low centers at 78 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/rBKuqd1.png

That's it, that's the last usable indication on the 0Z run. The further you go out the MORE low centers in the same area you want to see. It's not appropriate to show a few members at 200 hours and call it anything. It's nothing.


This! In any typical run you can always have your few rogue members.

The rogue members into swfl get way more attention than they should.
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Re: RE: Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1746 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:09 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
tolakram wrote:
You're using the ensembles wrong. Look for groupings, and past 120 hours there has to be even more extreme grouping before anything is an actual event that might happen. Take the latest EPS. This is why the NHC tagged that area. Look at all the low centers at 78 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/rBKuqd1.png

That's it, that's the last usable indication on the 0Z run. The further you go out the MORE low centers in the same area you want to see. It's not appropriate to show a few members at 200 hours and call it anything. It's nothing.


This! In any typical run you can always have your few rogue members.

The rogue members into swfl get way more attention than they should.


Bingo for that.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1747 Postby zzzh » Fri Oct 20, 2023 8:48 pm

12z GEM shows AEW development in the Caribbean, EC also shows the wave. GFS has the wave turning north before entering the Caribbean.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1748 Postby ouragans » Tue Oct 24, 2023 9:54 am

Very long rage 6z GFS has a solid cat.3 hitting the Leeward from the Caribbean at day 13. I think I need to back to bed :roll:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1749 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Oct 24, 2023 2:46 pm

12 z Gfs shows Cat 4 near eastern Cuba in long range
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1750 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 24, 2023 2:54 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:12 z Gfs shows Cat 4 near eastern Cuba in long range


 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1716870569302634578


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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1751 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 24, 2023 2:54 pm

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1752 Postby Weathertracker96 » Tue Oct 24, 2023 3:05 pm

I’ve looked at models but I had a quick question, is their a wave or crossover system that may jumpstart this potential Caribbean disturbance?
I also know steering is hard to forecast far in advance but *If* a system were to form, the fronts/troughs that saved majority of areas from landfalls may actually cause problems this time around.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1753 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 24, 2023 4:25 pm

If something forms..

Image

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1754 Postby DunedinDave » Tue Oct 24, 2023 6:54 pm

Looks like that GFS cat 4 storm 12z was just a happy hour run. They got hammered early today. Back to nothing but a weak low at 18z…which is usually when their happy hour runs are.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1755 Postby zzzh » Tue Oct 24, 2023 9:12 pm

All models show monsoon gyre like stuff in the Caribbean, it's hard to predict what will come out of it especially when it will interact with tropical waves.
By the way, you typically see those monsoon gyres in WPAC during summer, not in the Caribbean :D
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1756 Postby blp » Tue Oct 24, 2023 9:14 pm

It's a happy hour special on the Euro Ensembles for Florida from the East and the South.

Image
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1757 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:06 am

blp wrote:It's a happy hour special on the Euro Ensembles for Florida from the East and the South.

https://i.ibb.co/sjKsS9m/73906990.gif

That collision course is lighting in a bottle lol.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1758 Postby kevin » Wed Oct 25, 2023 8:46 am

There have been 9 category 5 cyclones globally so far this year. We're only behind 2014 (10), 2018 (11) and 1997 (12) in that metric.
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1759 Postby MetroMike » Wed Oct 25, 2023 3:54 pm

Everyone seems to have had it with this season, goofy model runs, phantoms. Unfortunately it is dragging on.

:roll:
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1760 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Oct 25, 2023 6:01 pm

18z GFS has a pretty violent hurricane in the Caribbean by 11 days.
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