Global model runs discussion

[FireRat]

October 10-25 is really the prime time for Florida hits, we are just 1 week away from the start of the "Peak for Fla landfalls". Arguably, some parts of September almost match this time frame for numerous landfalls, either way we're in a temporary lull.

[cycloneye]

A late October development in NW Caribbean? We will find out by then if what the 10/6/10 12z GFS shows will be right or not as this image does not change,as is with ImagesShack.

[Steve H.]

Seems like winter has arrived in Florida! Temps near 60 in some places this morning. Might be a tease though. But the westerlies have kicked in big time for now.

[srainhoutx]

Time to revive this thread...

[gatorcane]

Wow

[ronjon]

Richard

[caneseddy]

12z GFS has Richard once again starting to develop by this Sunday and through next Wednesday following a similar path than Paula off of the Honduras/Nicaragua border

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_180l.gif

[LarryWx]

Per 12Z gfs, Hurricane Richard hits extreme S FL on 10/23.

[caneseddy]

Per 12Z gfs, Hurricane Richard hits extreme S FL on 10/23.

It's actually Sunday 10/24...Wilma's anniversary...second straight run that shows Hurricane Richard coming to FL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_276l.gif

Also, I believe there were some GFS runs yesterday showing Richard heading towards Sflorida around same timeframe

[LarryWx]

Per 12Z gfs, Hurricane Richard hits extreme S FL on 10/23.

It's actually Sunday 10/24...Wilma's anniversary...second straight run that shows Hurricane Richard coming to FL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_276l.gif

Also, I believe there were some GFS runs yesterday showing Richard heading towards Sflorida around same timeframe

I was talking ET. It hits around 0Z on 10/24 or 8 PM EDT on 10/23.

Yes, there have been several similar runs since yesterday. So, this is somewhat interesting even though it is still well out in fantasytime.

[LarryWx]

Last four gfs runs for Richard:

1) 18z: 400 miles S of cuba 10/22
2) 0z: just missed extreme S FL 10/22-3
3) 6z: hits SW FL 10/24
4) 12z: skirts far S tip of FL 10/23

Here's some climo to keep in mind. Hurricane hit dates from the west/south on FL from Tampa area south 10/1+ (1851-2009):

10/2, 10/5, 10/5, 10/6, 10/7, 10/9, 10/11, 10/11, 10/12, 10/14, 10/15, 10/17, 10/18, 10/18, 10/18, 10/19, 10/19, 10/20, 10/20, 10/20, 10/21, 10/23, 10/24, 10/25, 11/30

So, 10/22-4 is just after the 10/17-21 peak high frequency (in bold) and within the last part of the decent threat period. So, it is not at all an unreasonable possibility per climo to have a threat to S FL around 10/22-4 as suggested by these last few gfs runs.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS starts to develop it in the SW Caribbean at 120 hours:

[LarryWx]

18z gfs hits sw fl with H Richard on 10/23. So, still another threatening gfs run for S FL with King Richard during 10/22-24.

[gatorcane]

Could be the real deal for South Florida? Reminiscent of 2005 where we almost escaped a hyperactive season unscathed until Wilma busted through.

[srainhoutx]

Could be the real deal for South Florida? Reminiscent of 2005 where we almost escaped a hyperactive season unscathed until Wilma busted through.

How quickly we forget Dean, Katrina, and Rita in the Keys.

[Vortex]

This one is beginning to grab my attention....

[LarryWx]

Well, the 0Z gfs continues the string of King Richard hits way out in fantasytime, except Richard looks quite wimpy in this run fwiw. On this run the hit is on SW FL on 10/24-5.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS been a persistent Mother..06z Firse at FL again

[LarryWx]

Yep, 6z gfs is 6th run in a row with Richard threatening SFL within 10/22-25! It would at least appear that late OCT won't be boring. That remains to be seen as the 0z Euro, just like the prior Euro, has no Richard at all and it is often the superior model.

[boca]

The GFS has been developing Richard for seven runs now.I don't see a trigger of where Richard will form. Is this just a fantasy storm or will it form.