CyclonicFury wrote:The GFS does seem to have a bias with gyre genesis in the Western Caribbean. It developed Alberto way too early as well as that hurricane in June which never verified. Until the operational Euro and/or UKMET come on board, it's going to be hard for me to take genesis in that region seriously.
I agree about the bias, which has even caused in the past numerous runs in a row with W Caribbean activity in late Sep/early Oct that never verified. So, a grain of salt is strongly recommended to be taken especially it being nearly 2 weeks out. Nevertheless fwiw, the 12Z GEFS continues the same hints there and 'tis the season down there for genesis, starting mid to late Sep. but really picking up early to mid Oct. before falling back starting late Oct.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/
# of Geneses W. Caribbean (W of 75W)(1851-2017):
9/1-10: 6
9/11-20: 14
9/21-30: 16
10/1-10: 32
10/11-20: 34
10/21-31: 16
So, climo alone says 60% chance of a TS+ forming just in W Caribbean and just within 9/21-10/31. Climo support doesn't get much stronger than that for such a small area.
That's the most bullish the GEFS Ensembles have been with regards to anything developing in the Western Caribbean in the long-range so far. Lets see what the 12z and 18z runs and its Ensembles show.
