2018 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

At 12z model package,the consensus continued with the main model GFS and ECMWF. At this run,Euro is much more bullish.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/K6a6xHt.png[img]

Yes, much more bullish.

[Kingarabian]

Strong signal for TC development in the EPAC early next week on the 12Z EPS:



PC - Ryan Maue -http://www.weathermodels.com

[cycloneye]

Looks like there are issues with the GFS plots with server but FV3 is running with a cat 2.

[aperson]

18z GFS is similar but less aggressive with lowest MSLP bottoming out around 979

[cycloneye]

Maue did not have the quiet thing right as ONE-E formed.

@RyanMaue
Still waiting on the first named storm in the Eastern Pacific ... ECMWF 12z (parallel & op) indicate development in 8-10 days off the coast of Mexico.
Hurricane season started on May 15th in the EPAC but it has been very quiet.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1001998029975584768

[cycloneye]

The timeframe by GFS at 12z to begin development has gone down to 144 hours. (Next Wednesday)

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF now is in the same 144 hours as GFS when it begins development.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF and GFS remain in excellent agreement at a system in six days starting around 100W. Track will likely shift westward in upcoming days.

[cycloneye]

First mention not at TWO but at discussion:

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate nocturnal drainage is forecast to
resume on Sat night as a surface low is forecast to develop
along the monsoon trough near 12N101W. The low should move west
of the area on Sun night.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010517
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu May 31 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form in a few days several hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for some slow development of this system early next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

00z has back to showing a strong hurricane moving west.

[cycloneye]

00z has back to showing a strong hurricane moving west.

Is a strong longtracker that Euro has.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 1 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form by early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF has the EPAC long-tracker down to 967MB by day 10 heading west with another one forming further east.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 1 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop by early next
week a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it
moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Kingarabian]

12Z ECMWF has the EPAC long-tracker down to 967MB by day 10 heading west with another one forming further east.

[img]https://s22.postimg.cc/kv50c4v75/ecmwf_mslpa_Norm_epac_11.png[img]

Yep, same as the 12z GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

12z FV3 suggests exciting times are ahead. Looking forward to some old school EPAC activity.... something I haven't felt since Kenneth last year

[cycloneye]

As always CMC does,it gives birth to a chain of cyclones.

[Yellow Evan]

As always CMC does,it gives birth a chain of cyclones.

CMC shows triple the amount of cyclones anytime conditions are about to be favorable in the EPAC or WPAC. It's like five times worse in the EPAC than the ATL, and that's saying something.

[Ntxw]

Pretty good agreement in general from most global guidance a Hurricane will be tracking across the EPAC soon