SE CONUS Coast Watch - Now 97L

[NDG]

Is a naked swirl, northerly shear over it.
Edit: south of Perdido Key, to be exact.

[Aric Dunn]

I smell a Special Tropical Weather outlook coming if convection continues to build near the center. ....sheared system is not out the question..

[northjaxpro]

Yeah I saw the naked swirl as the first visible image appeared. As I mentioned earlier, northerly shear will inhibit development there and dry air, which is all around it just to the north.

[crownweather]

Hmmm......Interesting weather observations from that convection. With that said, it's a tiny circulation. Agree though that the 20-30 knots of northerly wind shear will probably prevent any significant spin ups.

[NDG]

:uarrow: Yeah I saw the naked swirl as the first visible image appeared. As I mentioned earlier, northerly shear will inhibit development there and dry air, which is all around it just to the north.

You are are correct, the northerly shear and dry mid levels will keep this new vorticity at bay.
Sounding from Slidell this morning, very dry atmosphere along the north central gulf coast, any storms that develop near it as it continues moving NE towards the coast will eventually collapse:

[Aric Dunn]

fyi.. maybe another thread should be made for the system off Ga/SC... latest radar and surface obs. pretty much indicate we have a quickly developing small circ.. the radar signature the past 20 min is rather interesting..

[northjaxpro]

Interesting that NWS Composite Radars from both JAX and Charleston is showing a nice swirl signature just east of Brunswick, GA. Convection is building near the circulation. I am checking buoys to see what is potentially happening there, but if I did noy know any better, it surre looks like a surface circulation may be trying to establish itself down here this morning.

[NDG]

Northerly shear is too much for it to get any further organized, IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting that NWS Composite Radars from both JAX and Charleston is showing a nice swirl signature just east of Brunswick, GA. Convection is building near the circulation. I am checking buoys to see what is potentially happening there, but if I did noy know any better, it surre looks like a surface circulation may be trying to establish itself down here this morning.

yeah.... If that features maintains for a little while then its pretty much a shoe-in lol

[Aric Dunn]

You dont get a much more classic velocity signature than this.. lol ... disregard that one bouy. it has not updated for awhile for some reason..

[northjaxpro]

Convection wrapping nicely into the LLC. Also, picking up forward speed. It already is just due south of Hilton Head moving north/northeast. Looks like a TD to me already.

Satellite and Radar Presentation looks good. I think EURO ayvend up bring righy about this becoming a tropicsa cyclone afterall.

[Aric Dunn]

Also Convection starting to build around the circ south of mobile. even with the shear it can maintain pulsed convection and be classified. we might end up with two td's in the next 24hrs or less. maybe even a TS with the one off GA/SC. that with its forward motion would easily have TS winds on the SE side.

[GCANE]

Interesting that NWS Composite Radars from both JAX and Charleston is showing a nice swirl signature just east of Brunswick, GA. Convection is building near the circulation. I am checking buoys to see what is potentially happening there, but if I did noy know any better, it surre looks like a surface circulation may be trying to establish itself down here this morning.

yeah.... If that features maintains for a little while then its pretty much a shoe-in lol

Earth Nullschool is resolving a 850mb vort just to the NW of this.
Looks like it made it to the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting that NWS Composite Radars from both JAX and Charleston is showing a nice swirl signature just east of Brunswick, GA. Convection is building near the circulation. I am checking buoys to see what is potentially happening there, but if I did noy know any better, it surre looks like a surface circulation may be trying to establish itself down here this morning.

yeah.... If that features maintains for a little while then its pretty much a shoe-in lol

Earth Nullschool is resolving a 850mb vort just to the NW of this.
Looks like it made it to the surface.

https://i.imgur.com/dbqoF8V.png

yeah you can tell it has by the hilton head station showing the winds rotating around as it has been passing by. would not be surprised to see mention from NHC shortly.

[GCANE]

Also Convection starting to build around the circ south of mobile. even with the shear it can maintain pulsed convection and be classified. we might end up with two td's in the next 24hrs or less. maybe even a TS with the one off GA/SC. that with its forward motion would easily have TS winds on the SE side.

I'll start a new thread for this one
"N GOM Watch part 2"

We'll keep this one for the developments currently off Hilton Head.

[northjaxpro]

Just checked buoy 41008 , which is positioned just southeast tof Savannah. The LLC is just north of this buoy station
Reported SW wind 28Kt.

[NDG]

If that's a TD that will bread the record for the tiniest TD ever, lol.
That's just a mesovortix, IMO.

[GCANE]

About 15 knt SW winds at 300mb over this.
Going to run into a 3000 CAPE Ridge.
Running over the Gulf Stream
Good chance it'll spin up.

[northjaxpro]

If that's a TD that will bread the record for the tiniest TD ever, lol.
That's just a mesovortix, IMO.

Meso vort is I agree.
But, I have seen crazier systems designated aTD by NHC over the years NDG.
I have seen it all trust me in this business LOL...

[northjaxpro]

About 15 knt SW winds at 300mb over this.
Going to run into a 3000 CAPE Ridge.
Running over the Gulf Stream
Good chance it'll spin up.

I agree.