2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Aric Dunn]

to be fair.. we are probably going to get Isaias before August first..

[aspen]

There’s a ton of shear currently present in the Caribbean, a full meat grinder of 30-40+ kt eastward winds. Is that expected to change in the coming days? If 92L doesn’t turn north and this shear pattern is still in place, it’ll be ripped to shreds.

[TheStormExpert]

There’s a ton of shear currently present in the Caribbean, a full meat grinder of 30-40+ kt eastward winds. Is that expected to change in the coming days? If 92L doesn’t turn north and this shear pattern is still in place, it’ll be ripped to shreds.

Could be why the Euro doesn’t do much much with 92L.

[gatorcane]

Anybody have any thoughts how/if the much warmer than normal pocket of water in the northern Pacific might impact potentially any steering in the Atlantic? One thought I have is maybe it causes a more progressive pattern as lows that track over the area might get stronger than normal which might cause perturbations in the jet stream across North America and Atlantic especially in the fall as mid-latitude lows traverse the Pacific. This progressive pattern might in turn impact the strength and and location of the Bermuda high causing it to be a bit weaker and more transient than normal?

[Hammy]

Latest CFS shows little to nothing from here to the third week of August, followed by moderate activity for most of September and essentially shutting down in the MDR once we hit October, though there are quite a few systems in the subtropics in October that are hard to tell on that model if they're tropical or not.

[WeatherEmperor]

Latest CFS shows little to nothing from here to the third week of August, followed by moderate activity for most of September and essentially shutting down in the MDR once we hit October, though there are quite a few systems in the subtropics in October that are hard to tell on that model if they're tropical or not.

Is the CFS showing any development in the SW Caribbean in October? Thats usually an area to watch with La Nina conditions such as this year


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[CFLHurricane]

Latest CFS shows little to nothing from here to the third week of August, followed by moderate activity for most of September and essentially shutting down in the MDR once we hit October, though there are quite a few systems in the subtropics in October that are hard to tell on that model if they're tropical or not.

Do you think the CFS likes powdered or cracked?

[toad strangler]

Hammy is wetting the 'ol Season Cancel whistle

[aspen]

Latest CFS shows little to nothing from here to the third week of August, followed by moderate activity for most of September and essentially shutting down in the MDR once we hit October, though there are quite a few systems in the subtropics in October that are hard to tell on that model if they're tropical or not.

I’m not trusting any model predictions that are weeks to months out. If the Atlantic can pump out two AEW-based systems in the same week in July while SAL is still an issue, and has been producing storms at a record pace despite still being in a less active part of the season, then why would it suddenly revert to average levels of activity during peak months?

[St0rmTh0r]

Latest CFS shows little to nothing from here to the third week of August, followed by moderate activity for most of September and essentially shutting down in the MDR once we hit October, though there are quite a few systems in the subtropics in October that are hard to tell on that model if they're tropical or not.

Do you think the CFS likes powdered or cracked?

Well this seems like a good laugh. Let's believe a 3 month forecast when models couldn't see a hurricane in the gulf a day out!

[Hammy]

Latest CFS shows little to nothing from here to the third week of August, followed by moderate activity for most of September and essentially shutting down in the MDR once we hit October, though there are quite a few systems in the subtropics in October that are hard to tell on that model if they're tropical or not.

I’m not trusting any model predictions that are weeks to months out. If the Atlantic can pump out two AEW-based systems in the same week in July while SAL is still an issue, and has been producing storms at a record pace despite still being in a less active part of the season, then why would it suddenly revert to average levels of activity during peak months?

Similar to the last two years it's showing the waves coming off much further north during August than they normally do along with a lot of shear based on what the seasonal model is showing. And it's been fairly accurate the last few seasons that I've been checking, at least regarding the general direction of the season. It was similarly correct last year that we'd see a lower hurricane count.

And the MDR is clearly less favorable than most here have been thinking given the otherwise favorable background state elsewhere--all the models are trending downward with 92L and Gonzalo under-performed practically all of the guidance.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Latest CFS shows little to nothing from here to the third week of August, followed by moderate activity for most of September and essentially shutting down in the MDR once we hit October, though there are quite a few systems in the subtropics in October that are hard to tell on that model if they're tropical or not.

I’m not trusting any model predictions that are weeks to months out. If the Atlantic can pump out two AEW-based systems in the same week in July while SAL is still an issue, and has been producing storms at a record pace despite still being in a less active part of the season, then why would it suddenly revert to average levels of activity during peak months?

Similar to the last two years it's showing the waves coming off much further north during August than they normally do along with a lot of shear based on what the seasonal model is showing. And it's been fairly accurate the last few seasons that I've been checking, at least regarding the general direction of the season. It was similarly correct last year that we'd see a lower hurricane count.

And the MDR is clearly less favorable than most here have been thinking given the otherwise favorable background state elsewhere--all the models are trending downward with 92L and Gonzalo under-performed practically all of the guidance.

Hammy, it's July....

Just because this wave might not become a major, it does not mean that in 3 weeks, things will change as we head into the peak.

plus, Gonzalo and this even wave being there in the first place is already an overpeformance for this part of the season.

[toad strangler]

Latest CFS shows little to nothing from here to the third week of August, followed by moderate activity for most of September and essentially shutting down in the MDR once we hit October, though there are quite a few systems in the subtropics in October that are hard to tell on that model if they're tropical or not.

I’m not trusting any model predictions that are weeks to months out. If the Atlantic can pump out two AEW-based systems in the same week in July while SAL is still an issue, and has been producing storms at a record pace despite still being in a less active part of the season, then why would it suddenly revert to average levels of activity during peak months?

Similar to the last two years it's showing the waves coming off much further north during August than they normally do along with a lot of shear based on what the seasonal model is showing. And it's been fairly accurate the last few seasons that I've been checking, at least regarding the general direction of the season. It was similarly correct last year that we'd see a lower hurricane count.

And the MDR is clearly less favorable than most here have been thinking given the otherwise favorable background state elsewhere--all the models are trending downward with 92L and Gonzalo under-performed practically all of the guidance.

Gonzalo under performed? It shouldn't have even been there lol. Get a hold of yourself Hammy!

[Hammy]

I’m not trusting any model predictions that are weeks to months out. If the Atlantic can pump out two AEW-based systems in the same week in July while SAL is still an issue, and has been producing storms at a record pace despite still being in a less active part of the season, then why would it suddenly revert to average levels of activity during peak months?

Similar to the last two years it's showing the waves coming off much further north during August than they normally do along with a lot of shear based on what the seasonal model is showing. And it's been fairly accurate the last few seasons that I've been checking, at least regarding the general direction of the season. It was similarly correct last year that we'd see a lower hurricane count.

And the MDR is clearly less favorable than most here have been thinking given the otherwise favorable background state elsewhere--all the models are trending downward with 92L and Gonzalo under-performed practically all of the guidance.

Hammy, it's July....

Just because this wave might not become a major, it does not mean that in 3 weeks, things will change as we head into the peak.

plus, Gonzalo and this even wave being there in the first place is already an overpeformance for this part of the season.

The model is not forecasting a quiet season, nor am I--I'm updating from time to time the changing trends with the model as it tends to give an idea of how the season will go. But there seems like there's suddenly this tendency to jump on everything that forms as if it'll become a major hurricane--this wave is being treated as such, several posters with Gonzalo, with Hanna as well, and the conditions are not there to support major hurricane after major hurricane like 2017 as the shear is higher.

Regarding the model (and this is a bit subjective as the model is low resolution) a rundown of the latest run:

13/5/3 between now and mid-October (when the model ends) which would put the season at 21/6/3 and is also forecasting a lull in activity (as often happens) during the first two weeks or so of August, as well as a second in the first half of October.

There are a few caveats: There did not appear to be any Gulf activity and the generally low pressure blends in with any storm that the model might be forming over the southern Gulf, because of the resolution I'd put the number of hurricanes between 5-8 on this particular run, and I did not include anything that started north of 35 because it's impossible on this resolution to tell if those are tropical or not.

Gonzalo under performed? It shouldn't have even been there lol. Get a hold of yourself Hammy!

Forecast to 80 mph and only making it to 65 and rapidly weakening is certainly not over-performing, which everything outside of the MDR has done.

[CyclonicFury]

Similar to the last two years it's showing the waves coming off much further north during August than they normally do along with a lot of shear based on what the seasonal model is showing. And it's been fairly accurate the last few seasons that I've been checking, at least regarding the general direction of the season. It was similarly correct last year that we'd see a lower hurricane count.

And the MDR is clearly less favorable than most here have been thinking given the otherwise favorable background state elsewhere--all the models are trending downward with 92L and Gonzalo under-performed practically all of the guidance.

Hammy, it's July....

Just because this wave might not become a major, it does not mean that in 3 weeks, things will change as we head into the peak.

plus, Gonzalo and this even wave being there in the first place is already an overpeformance for this part of the season.

The model is not forecasting a quiet season, nor am I--I'm updating from time to time the changing trends with the model as it tends to give an idea of how the season will go. But there seems like there's suddenly this tendency to jump on everything that forms as if it'll become a major hurricane--this wave is being treated as such, several posters with Gonzalo, with Hanna as well, and the conditions are not there to support major hurricane after major hurricane like 2017 as the shear is higher.

Regarding the model (and this is a bit subjective as the model is low resolution) a rundown of the latest run:

13/5/3 between now and mid-October (when the model ends) which would put the season at 21/6/3 and is also forecasting a lull in activity (as often happens) during the first two weeks or so of August, as well as a second in the first half of October.

There are a few caveats: There did not appear to be any Gulf activity and the generally low pressure blends in with any storm that the model might be forming over the southern Gulf, because of the resolution I'd put the number of hurricanes between 5-8 on this particular run, and I did not include anything that started north of 35 because it's impossible on this resolution to tell if those are tropical or not.

Gonzalo under performed? It shouldn't have even been there lol. Get a hold of yourself Hammy!

Forecast to 80 mph and only making it to 65 and rapidly weakening is certainly not over-performing, which everything outside of the MDR has done.

To be fair, Gonzalo was initially only expected to peak at 65 mph, which is exactly how strong it became. Intensity guidance seems to have a high bias in tiny storms in low shear environments. For instance, TD 6 in July 2003 was initially expected to reach hurricane strength in the MDR, but failed to even get named. Despite TD 6 significantly underperforming, the MDR produced two powerful long trackers in 2003: Fabian and Isabel.

MDR hurricanes east of the Antilles during July are also quite rare to begin with, I only know of Bertha 1996/2008, Emily 2005 and Beryl 2018. 92L may not exceed TS strength in the MDR but I still think it is an ominous sign for peak that we have potentially two MDR named storms before August 1. Most of the strongest MDR hurricanes don't form until late August or September.

[toad strangler]

Forecast to 80 mph and only making it to 65 and rapidly weakening is certainly not over-performing, which everything outside of the MDR has done.

IMO it's elementary to understand that a deep tropics MDR system has no place there in mid July. THAT comes first. Before any model forecast of said very early deep tropics MDR system. I could never see eye to eye with you on this. God BLess America!

[Hammy]

To be fair, Gonzalo was initially only expected to peak at 65 mph, which is exactly how strong it became. Intensity guidance seems to have a high bias in tiny storms in low shear environments. For instance, TD 6 in July 2003 was initially expected to reach hurricane strength in the MDR, but failed to even get named. Despite TD 6 significantly underperforming, the MDR produced two powerful long trackers in 2003: Fabian and Isabel.

MDR hurricanes east of the Antilles during July are also quite rare to begin with, I only know of Bertha 1996/2008, Emily 2005 and Beryl 2018. 92L may not exceed TS strength in the MDR but I still think it is an ominous sign for peak that we have potentially two MDR named storms before August 1. Most of the strongest MDR hurricanes don't form until late August or September.

That is essentially consistent with what the CFS has been showing. I just get the impression lately that a lot of people here are now expecting every model storm to turn into a major hurricane, hence feeling it'll be less favorable than a lot think. And there does seem like there's evidence for a lull, and that conditions may be in the process of flipping to that, at least in the MDR, something that's also been consistent with a lot of active seasons--even 2005 had nothing form for almost 20 days preceding Katrina.

On a side note does anybody know where I can find a higher resolution version that goes out all the way, it's not easy trying to guess the intensity while having to use four different maps

[toad strangler]

To be fair, Gonzalo was initially only expected to peak at 65 mph, which is exactly how strong it became. Intensity guidance seems to have a high bias in tiny storms in low shear environments. For instance, TD 6 in July 2003 was initially expected to reach hurricane strength in the MDR, but failed to even get named. Despite TD 6 significantly underperforming, the MDR produced two powerful long trackers in 2003: Fabian and Isabel.

MDR hurricanes east of the Antilles during July are also quite rare to begin with, I only know of Bertha 1996/2008, Emily 2005 and Beryl 2018. 92L may not exceed TS strength in the MDR but I still think it is an ominous sign for peak that we have potentially two MDR named storms before August 1. Most of the strongest MDR hurricanes don't form until late August or September.

That is essentially consistent with what the CFS has been showing. I just get the impression lately that a lot of people here are now expecting every model storm to turn into a major hurricane, hence feeling it'll be less favorable than a lot think. And there does seem like there's evidence for a lull, and that conditions may be in the process of flipping to that, at least in the MDR, something that's also been consistent with a lot of active seasons--even 2005 had nothing form for almost 20 days preceding Katrina.

On a side note does anybody know where I can find a higher resolution version that goes out all the way, it's not easy trying to guess the intensity while having to use four different maps

Every model storm to turn into a major? I haven't seen anybody do that

[BYG Jacob]

Hugging the CFS is a weird hill to die on.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Lol, CFS. Like a screen door on a submarine. useless. next.