2015 Global model runs discussion

#1921 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:39 am

STOP IT, MU

#1922 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 1:48 am

STOP IT ECMWF

CourierPR · #1923 Postby **CourierPR** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:43 am

Alyono wrote:STOP IT ECMWF

What do you mean?

#1924 Postby **Blown Away** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:48 am

Alyono wrote:STOP IT ECMWF

Meanwhile the ECMWF continues to show a system develop near Bermuda and move SW towards the CONUS...

#1925 Postby **northjaxpro** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 8:11 am

GFS 10 day run (240 hour) actually showed this making landfall in South Florida. Still a good amount of time out, but EURO and GFS continues to show this feature right though the end of November.

#1926 Postby **AJC3** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 8:47 am

wxman57 wrote:I didn't want to start a new thread on this, as it does relate to global models. Saw a tweet today about the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) that is scheduled to replace the GFS in 2018. See the link below. I hadn't heard of this model before. Their implementation timeline seems pretty ambitious.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/index.html

NGGPS...surely that acronym won't cause any confusion whatsoever in the modeling world. :roll:

They pretty much have cursed its performance for modeling TCs by using a bastardized abbreviation of NOGAPS. :lol:

#1927 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:57 am

AJC3 good point. Not a good name! Also the NOGAPS must have heard you...06Z run below has the Atlantic storm the GFS and ECMWF have been showing approaching your forecast area: :lol:

P.S. To be fair it has the ECMWF support.

blp · #1928 Postby **blp** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:59 am

AJC3 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I didn't want to start a new thread on this, as it does relate to global models. Saw a tweet today about the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) that is scheduled to replace the GFS in 2018. See the link below. I hadn't heard of this model before. Their implementation timeline seems pretty ambitious.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/index.html

NGGPS...surely that acronym won't cause any confusion whatsoever in the modeling world.

They pretty much have cursed its performance for modeling TCs by using a bastardized abbreviation of NOGAPS.

Yeah, lol I was thinking the same thing. The acroynm is terrible, can you imagine when the news outlets start mentioning it. Some people might think it is a GPS system for navigation.

blp · #1929 Postby **blp** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:02 am

gatorcane wrote:AJC3 good point. Not a good name! Also the NOGAPS must have heard you...06Z run below has the Atlantic storm the GFS and ECMWF have been showing approaching your forecast area:

P.S. To be fair it has the ECMWF support.

[]http://i.imgur.com/luCuk3u.gif[/img]

The CMC is on it as well but looks more like the GFS significantly further NE than the Euro. So two camps developed overnight the Euro & Nogaps vs the GFS and CMC.

#1930 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:18 am

To be fair the Nogaps is now the Navgem and the Cmc is now the Gem so there shouldnt be that much confusion

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#1931 Postby **AJC3** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:39 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:To be fair the Nogaps is now the Navgem and the Cmc is now the Gem so there shouldnt be that much confusion

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For many operational mets and those who are intimately familiar with NAVGEM as well as the new model, sure. However, even with NAVGEM being out there, I'd bet even a sizeable chunk of mets and other more learned wx amateurs would see the acronym NGGPS and their initial thought would be that the modeling folks at FNMOC may have brought back some iteration of NOGAPS - at least early on.

#1932 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:02 pm

12z Euro no longer shows an atlantic storm moving SW toward the SE coast of the US. Inconsistent with this feature I think.

Instead it drifts North to Bermuda and then out to sea like the Gfs has been showing in a consistent basis

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floridasun78 · #1933 Postby **floridasun78** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:58 pm

so this going be none tropical low?

#1934 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Nov 21, 2015 8:54 am

Looks like a frontal low in a very high-shear environment.

HURRICANELONNY · #1935 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Sun Nov 22, 2015 10:09 am

As per Sunday morning NWS:

A middle level cutoff low
digs off the Florida East Coast Thanksgiving day and moves south
to the Caribbean by the upcoming Holiday weekend. No major impacts
from this feature expect to continue to support scattered East
Coast showers through at least Friday before drier low level air
moves in over the weekend.

floridasun78 · #1936 Postby **floridasun78** » Sun Nov 22, 2015 11:44 am

HURRICANELONNY wrote:As per Sunday morning NWS:

A middle level cutoff low
digs off the Florida East Coast Thanksgiving day and moves south
to the Caribbean by the upcoming Holiday weekend. No major impacts
from this feature expect to continue to support scattered East
Coast showers through at least Friday before drier low level air
moves in over the weekend.

what weather service office this from ?

HURRICANELONNY · #1937 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Sun Nov 22, 2015 11:48 am

floridasun78 wrote:
HURRICANELONNY wrote:As per Sunday morning NWS:

A middle level cutoff low
digs off the Florida East Coast Thanksgiving day and moves south
to the Caribbean by the upcoming Holiday weekend. No major impacts
from this feature expect to continue to support scattered East
Coast showers through at least Friday before drier low level air
moves in over the weekend.

what weather service office this from ?

Miami: http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... =Hollywood