2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

How todays 12z Euro ends with a 1007mb broad low sitting and slowly deepening between Cuba and Jamaica.

https://i.imgur.com/2omJfOX.png

That setup on the Euro would have the same results as the GFS but the GFS is faster with ejecting the Caribbean feature than the Euro by like 2 to 3 days

Yeah the 12 GFS has it barely SW of Bermuda by day 10, the 12z FV3-GFS is between the 12z GFS and Euro at day 10 with it just NE of the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Consensus though is growing that this will take one of the many typical October tracks seen from Western Caribbean tropical cyclones, forms in the Western Caribbean and immediately heads NE across Eastern Cuba through the SE Bahamas and OTS. Still too soon if that though will be the ultimate outcome but that seems most likely right now.

[TheStormExpert]

Also, the low resolution JMA model on its 12z run also is in agreement with the three amigos with a track heading slowly NNE towards Jamaica and Eastern Cuba in 8 days.

[toad strangler]

How todays 12z Euro ends with a 1007mb broad low sitting and slowly deepening between Cuba and Jamaica.

https://i.imgur.com/2omJfOX.png

Consensus though is growing that this will take one of the many typical October tracks seen from Western Caribbean tropical cyclones, forms in the Western Caribbean and immediately heads NE across Eastern Cuba through the SE Bahamas and OTS. Still too soon if that though will be the ultimate outcome but that seems most likely right now.

The track you describe above is more of a November climo track as per NOAA. Not that it can't happen of course. ...

[TheStormExpert]

Consensus though is growing that this will take one of the many typical October tracks seen from Western Caribbean tropical cyclones, forms in the Western Caribbean and immediately heads NE across Eastern Cuba through the SE Bahamas and OTS. Still too soon if that though will be the ultimate outcome but that seems most likely right now.

The track you describe above is more of a November climo track as per NOAA. Not that it can't happen of course. ...

It can happen both in October and November. Take Sandy for example minus the left hook, though it occurred in late October.

Due to a weakness in the ridge off the SE U.S. it will be hard to see something similar to Wilma or even Nate of last early-October.

[gatorcane]

Be careful with long-range steering forecasts by the models. Remember Nate last year was to head NE east of Florida early on.

[TheStormExpert]

Here is Jims map from HurricaneCity.com with tracks that he thought could occur throughout the season. So far he had a good idea with the overall tracks of Alberto and Florence. Can he nail his mid-late season track? Time will tell!

[gatorcane]

The 12Z UKMET is also showing a broad low organizing in the SW Caribbean and moving slowly NNE: Looks like we have some growing consensus on something brewing in the Western Caribbean starting next weekend in what looks to be a classic October scenario. Bears watching for us in Florida:

[SFLcane]

Still watching...

[SFLcane]

Nothing indicating this system will have an ideal environment for development IF ANY at all.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1045746981946167296

[gatorcane]

12Z ICON:

[TheStormExpert]

Wouldn’t surprise me to see this really wait to develop until in the Subtropical Atlantic.

[WeatherEmperor]

0z Canadian








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[gatorcane]

00Z UKMET:

[gatorcane]

Very active GEPS:

[SFLcane]

EPS probability up to about 45-50 percent for a depression to form. It’s rather active it shows a couple canes near Florida.

[NDG]

0z Euro ensembles, continuing to trend towards development in the western Caribbean in the 5-10 day range.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I’m no psychic, but with all this model consistency (euro, euro ensembles, cmc, gfs, fv3, icon) a hurricane forming in the western Caribbean and heading northeast towards south Florida sounds like a possibility with this setup. That Central American gyre and interaction with a trough cutting off south of Leslie could spark this. All eyes are on the western Caribbean. Gfs and fv3 take it east of Florida and through the Caribbean islands- but we all know the bias of gfs and fv3 in underestimating ridges and overestimating troughs. I think Florida has a pretty fair shot of a tropical system next 10 days or so. Especially South Florida.

Note how several EPS ensembles bring a powerful hurricane towards Florida.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/UZNgierDkscL9nDCA

[chaser1]

0z Euro ensembles, continuing to trend towards development in the western Caribbean in the 5-10 day range.

https://i.imgur.com/yCvIAge.gif

You just threw me a curve ball lol. I know the operational EURO only goes out to 240 hr., so where are you getting this depicting the EURO ensembles going out much further in time?

[toad strangler]

0z Euro ensembles, continuing to trend towards development in the western Caribbean in the 5-10 day range.

https://i.imgur.com/yCvIAge.gif

You just threw me a curve ball lol. I know the operational EURO only goes out to 240 hr., so where are you getting this depicting the EURO ensembles going out much further in time?

5-10 days ends at 240 hours......which I'm sure you know That's the timeframe he is talking about and what the graphic depicts

[toad strangler]

So at 12z the GFS is well west of 6z and 0z and slower with consolidating vorticity at the 240 hour 10 day pole. Same general longitude as 0z Euro but a degree or two S.