2014 EPAC Season

[hurricanes1234]

My 2014 EPAC numbers:

18/9/5

IMO,the EPAC will be more active because ENSO will be in a favorable status for plenty of activity to take place.

I agree. I am guessing we will see a season like 2009? My unofficial numbers are as follows:

17 named storms
12 hurricanes
4 or 5 major hurricanes

This is my amateur forecast for now.

[Yellow Evan]

Based on the ENSO thread, the odds of an El Nino and the fact the PDO just turned positive are both known factors that favor the EPAC. However, me personally, I don't think the El Nino is for real quite yet, though the PDO turning positive is a hint that that the EPAC may hit a brief upswing (PDO tends to come in short 3-5 cycles as part of a major 20-25 year cycle).

Ill go with 18/8/5.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Based on the ENSO thread, the odds of an El Nino and the fact the PDO just turned positive are both known factors that favor the EPAC. However, me personally, I don't think the El Nino is for real quite yet, though the PDO turning positive is a hint that that the EPAC may hit a brief upswing (PDO tends to come in short 3-5 cycles as part of a major 20-25 year cycle).

Ill go with 18/8/5.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Even this will be much more than last year's 1 major hurricane.

[CaliforniaResident]

Could an Eastern Pacific Hurricane hit the coast of Southern California if the El Nino turns out to be really strong? Since the LA area isn't even equipped to handle an inch of rain in a single day, I imagine even a category 1 (or even a tropical storm) would do a lot of major damage here. Could LA survive a hurricane?

[Kingarabian]

Could an Eastern Pacific Hurricane hit the coast of Southern California if the El Nino turns out to be really strong? Since the LA area isn't even equipped to handle an inch of rain in a single day, I imagine even a category 1 (or even a tropical storm) would do a lot of major damage here. Could LA survive a hurricane?

It's possible for SoCal, yes. Happened before, but it's very rare.

[Hurricane Jed]

In 1858 a Cat 1 hurricane just missed San Diego and in 1939 a former hurricane struck Long Beach as a tropical storm. Its incredibly rare.

[Yellow Evan]

Could an Eastern Pacific Hurricane hit the coast of Southern California if the El Nino turns out to be really strong? Since the LA area isn't even equipped to handle an inch of rain in a single day, I imagine even a category 1 (or even a tropical storm) would do a lot of major damage here. Could LA survive a hurricane?

Not likely. It happened in 1858, but otherwise, no. What is more likely; however, is that LA gets flooding from a former tropical storm that made landfall along the Baja California Peninsula.

[cycloneye]

Here is the list of the 2014 names. I have two that imo will be the biggies in terms of intensity (max sustained winds over 140 mph) and those are Fausto and Julio.

Amanda
Boris
Cristina
Douglas
Elida
Fausto
Genevieve
Hernan
Iselle
Julio
Karina
Lowell
Marie
Norbert
Odile
Polo
Rachel
Simon
Trudy
Vance
Winnie
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke

[CaliforniaResident]

In 1858 a Cat 1 hurricane just missed San Diego and in 1939 a former hurricane struck Long Beach as a tropical storm. Its incredibly rare.

You guys should see all the havoc that just 2-3 inches of rain in 3 days is causing LA. The local news yaps on and on about this "STORM" and the locals are sitting at home tweeting about the rain nonstop. Appearently there were a few rumbles of thunders and distant flashes of lightning last night and those dumb Angelenos GET OUT OF BED AT 3AM to try to take a picture of the distant flashes of lightning and post that they heard thunder on their facebook walls and how they stayed up all night to watch this so called "storm."

I can't imagine what would happen if a hurricane or even a tropical storm struck this place.

LA only had about 3 inches of rain in all of 2013 so getting 3 inches in 3 days is pretty rare for them.

[Cyclenall]

In 1858 a Cat 1 hurricane just missed San Diego and in 1939 a former hurricane struck Long Beach as a tropical storm. Its incredibly rare.

You guys should see all the havoc that just 2-3 inches of rain in 3 days is causing LA. The local news yaps on and on about this "STORM" and the locals are sitting at home tweeting about the rain nonstop. Appearently there were a few rumbles of thunders and distant flashes of lightning last night and those dumb Angelenos GET OUT OF BED AT 3AM to try to take a picture of the distant flashes of lightning and post that they heard thunder on their facebook walls and how they stayed up all night to watch this so called "storm."

I can't imagine what would happen if a hurricane or even a tropical storm struck this place.

LA only had about 3 inches of rain in all of 2013 so getting 3 inches in 3 days is pretty rare for them.

This is a pretty funny post you made here . How often do thunderstorms occur in LA?

[CaliforniaResident]

In 1858 a Cat 1 hurricane just missed San Diego and in 1939 a former hurricane struck Long Beach as a tropical storm. Its incredibly rare.

You guys should see all the havoc that just 2-3 inches of rain in 3 days is causing LA. The local news yaps on and on about this "STORM" and the locals are sitting at home tweeting about the rain nonstop. Appearently there were a few rumbles of thunders and distant flashes of lightning last night and those dumb Angelenos GET OUT OF BED AT 3AM to try to take a picture of the distant flashes of lightning and post that they heard thunder on their facebook walls and how they stayed up all night to watch this so called "storm."

I can't imagine what would happen if a hurricane or even a tropical storm struck this place.

LA only had about 3 inches of rain in all of 2013 so getting 3 inches in 3 days is pretty rare for them.

This is a pretty funny post you made here . How often do thunderstorms occur in LA?

In 1858 a Cat 1 hurricane just missed San Diego and in 1939 a former hurricane struck Long Beach as a tropical storm. Its incredibly rare.

You guys should see all the havoc that just 2-3 inches of rain in 3 days is causing LA. The local news yaps on and on about this "STORM" and the locals are sitting at home tweeting about the rain nonstop. Appearently there were a few rumbles of thunders and distant flashes of lightning last night and those dumb Angelenos GET OUT OF BED AT 3AM to try to take a picture of the distant flashes of lightning and post that they heard thunder on their facebook walls and how they stayed up all night to watch this so called "storm."

I can't imagine what would happen if a hurricane or even a tropical storm struck this place.

LA only had about 3 inches of rain in all of 2013 so getting 3 inches in 3 days is pretty rare for them.

This is a pretty funny post you made here . How often do thunderstorms occur in LA?

Pretty rare. The final core of the "storm" came through around 6PM last night and this time there was more thunder and lightning (louder than the one the previous early AM but still not anywhere near as intense an AVERAGE summer thunderstorm in FL; I'd put it around the same level as a typical New England summer thunderstorm). I was at a friend's house for dinner and their SIX year old son had NEVER seen a thunderstorm before last night. He was asking if it was 'fireworks'!!!. The family spend the entire evening staring out the window marveling at the rain, thunder, and lighting. The little boy hardly touched his food because he was so amazed by seeing rain for the first time. The wife (native Californian) actually worried about me driving 10 miles back home at 10PM in this "dangerous weather" even though the rain had lessened to light showers by then.

L.A area only got 3.6 inches of rain in the ENTIRE year of 2013. It's pretty much a dessert where it only rains in light showers a few times in the winter and no rain at all from April though October. Last July, it sprinkled with a grand total of only about 0.05 inches and it was major headline news that LA got "RAIN" in July. If this El Nino comes, L.A will probably get these kind of "storms" a couple of times a month from November though April rather than just once the entire winter?

[Kingarabian]

Pretty rare. The final core of the "storm" came through around 6PM last night and this time there was more thunder and lightning (louder than the one the previous early AM but still not anywhere near as intense an AVERAGE summer thunderstorm in FL; I'd put it around the same level as a typical New England summer thunderstorm). I was at a friend's house for dinner and their SIX year old son had NEVER seen a thunderstorm before last night. He was asking if it was 'fireworks'!!!. The family spend the entire evening staring out the window marveling at the rain, thunder, and lighting. The little boy hardly touched his food because he was so amazed by seeing rain for the first time. The wife (native Californian) actually worried about me driving 10 miles back home at 10PM in this "dangerous weather" even though the rain had lessened to light showers by then.

L.A area only got 3.6 inches of rain in the ENTIRE year of 2013. It's pretty much a dessert where it only rains in light showers a few times in the winter and no rain at all from April though October. Last July, it sprinkled with a grand total of only about 0.05 inches and it was major headline news that LA got "RAIN" in July. If this El Nino comes, L.A will probably get these kind of "storms" a couple of times a month from November though April rather than just once the entire winter?

Pretty much how it is for us, here in Hawaii.

[hurricanes1234]

When do you guys think the 2014 EPAC season will reach its climax?

[Yellow Evan]

When do you guys think the 2014 EPAC season will reach its climax?

Hard to predict with this basin. Really depends on MJO.

[CrazyC83]

It seems there is good opinion here that 2014 will be a big year for the EPAC. I expect at least 20, if not more, storms personally.

My early thinking: 22/10/5. And when you have 22 named storms, certainly quite a few will make landfall. The one thing 2013 had in the EPAC was a lot more land impacts than normal...

[Ntxw]

When do you guys think the 2014 EPAC season will reach its climax?

Hard to predict with this basin. Really depends on MJO.

MJO has spent quite a lot of time in phase 7 and 8 in Feb and so far in March. These are EPAC heavy phases, interested to see if this trend continues this summer.

[Hurricaneman]

quite honestly I expect a 17\8\5 season in the EPAC and one borderline cat5

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[hurricanes1234]

Can EPAC Category 5s occur after four years? Or is it once in every five to eight years on average there is a Category 5 here?

[Hurricane Jed]

Since reliable records began in 1966, there was Ava in 1973 and then nothing til 94. Cat 5's occurred in 97, 02, 06 (If you count the CPAC's Ioke), 09 and 10. I'd say since 94 the average would be closer to every 3-5 years the basin gets a Category 5 hurricane. With 94, 97 and 02 it seems to be a tendency of them occurring in clusters as those years had 2 or more Category 5 hurricanes.

[Ntxw]

Since reliable records began in 1966, there was Ava in 1973 and then nothing til 94. Cat 5's occurred in 97, 02, 06 (If you count the CPAC's Ioke), 09 and 10. I'd say since 94 the average would be closer to every 3-5 years the basin gets a Category 5 hurricane. With 94, 97 and 02 it seems to be a tendency of them occurring in clusters as those years had 2 or more Category 5 hurricanes.

Basically your stats say they most likely occur, if not exclusively, during El Nino. All of those years you listed (using ONI) were either during El Nino or the immedate season following an El Nino (73, 10) both occurring early in the season as residual Nino was fading.